Cross-financial-market Correlations and Quantitative Easing

Romanian journal of economic forecasting

In this paper we analyze the impact of quantitative easing policies issued by the European Central Bank, the Bank of England, the Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan on credit risk, in nine states belonging mainly to the Central and Eastern European area. We use an ARMA-GARCH model to obtain abnormal returns and squared abnormal returns and we compute the values of the t test for each category of returns. The analysis shows that the QE events belonging to the four issuers have an important effect on credit risk in the case of the countries considered in this study.

Financial Innovation

This study investigates the international spillover effects of US unconventional monetary policy (UMP)—frequently called large-scale asset purchases or quantitative easing (QE)—on advanced and emerging market economies, using structural vector autoregressive models with high-frequency daily data. Blinder (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Rev 92(6): 465–479, 2010) argued that the QE measures primarily aim to reduce US interest rate spreads, such as term and risk premiums. Considering this argument and recent empirical evidence, we use two spreads as indicators of US UMP: the mortgage and term spreads. Based on data from 20 emerging and 20 advanced countries, our empirical findings reveal that US unconventional monetary policies significantly affect financial conditions in emerging and advanced countries by altering the risk-taking behavior of investors. This result suggests that the risk-taking channel plays an important role in transmitting the effects of these policies to the rest...

International Journal of Financial Markets and Derivatives, 2013

Understanding the impact of external shocks on stock markets returns and volatility is crucial for market participants as volatility is synonymous with risk. The focus of this paper is to determine whether the US monetary policy decisions influence the stock market returns and volatility in Egypt, Israel, and Turkey. Efficient markets react to new information; hence a greater response would be expected in terms of trading activity if there is an unanticipated element to any information revealed. Thus, the paper decomposes the monetary policy shocks into both expected and surprise components and test their influence on the MENA stock markets. Adopting a multivariate GARCH technique, the results suggest a significant effect of the US monetary shocks on Cairo Stock Exchange but not Tel-Aviv and Istanbul stock exchanges. Moreover, the effect of the anticipated monetary policy actions on expected returns account for the largest part of the response of the stock prices.

The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, 2019

This paper examines the effects of the unconventional monetary policy (UMP) launched by the European Central Bank on the cross-market correlations between bond, stock and currency forward markets. Using a dynamic conditional correlation analysis and several robustness tests, we investigate possible differences on the correlation dynamics across four UMP periods and across a range of developed countries and emerging market economies. The empirical results indicate a spillover effect on both developed and emerging markets, although this impact is not identical across assets and countries. We also find that the new UMP phase started in 2014 has a more prominent impact, highlighting differences on the impact between the earlier and the new wave of UMPs and across cross-market correlations.

Journal of Banking & Finance, 2017

This paper examines the extent to which local monetary policy stance determines the strength of US monetary policy international transmission to global equities. Using a sample of 35 countries, we document that US monetary policy surprises exert significant inverse effects on global equity returns. Our results suggest that countries whose policy rates are brought into line with that of the US are less sensitive to US monetary policy shocks only when they have a high and intermediate level of cross-border financial linkages, and only when they have a low and intermediate level of exchange rate volatility.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2012

The paper analyses the global spillovers of the Federal Reserve's unconventional monetary policy measures since 2007. First, we find that Fed measures in the early phase of the crisis (QE1), but not since 2010 (QE2), were highly effective in lowering sovereign yields and raising equity markets in the US and globally across 65 countries. Yet Fed policies functioned in a pro-cyclical manner for capital flows to EMEs and a counter-cyclical way for the US, triggering a portfolio rebalancing across countries out of emerging markets (EMEs) into US equity and bond funds under QE1, and in the opposite direction under QE2. Second, the impact of Fed operations, such as Treasury and MBS purchases, on portfolio allocations and asset prices dwarfed those of Fed announcements, underlining the importance of the market repair and liquidity functions of Fed policies. Third, we find no evidence that FX or capital account policies helped countries shield themselves from these US policy spillovers, but rather that responses to Fed policies are related to country risk. The results thus illustrate how US monetary policy since 2007 has contributed to portfolio reallocation as well as a repricing of risk in global financial markets.

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2010

Bank of England This paper investigates the impact of the Bank of England's quantitative easing policy on UK asset prices. Based on analysis of the reaction of financial market prices and modelbased estimates, we find that asset purchases financed by the issuance of central bank reserves-which by February 2010 totalled £200 billion-may have depressed medium to longterm government bond yields by about 100 basis points, with the largest part of the impact coming through a portfolio balance effect. The wider impact on other asset prices is more difficult to disentangle from other influences: the initial impact was muted, but the overall effects were potentially much larger, though subject to considerable uncertainty.

EURASIAN JOURNAL OF ECONOMICS AND FINANCE, 2021

This paper is devoted to the unconventional monetary policy measures implemented by the US Federal Reserve (Fed) after the global financial crisis. The objective is to conduct an empirical analysis and econometric study on the effects of the US Fed non-standard monetary policy measures on the US financial market, namely by observing the reaction on the US 10-year government bond yield, the US stock market via the S&P 500 index, and the exchange rate of the US dollar versus the euro (EUR/USD). The observed period spreads from January 2009 to March 2019, with the use of monthly data. It captures the Fed’s unconventional monetary policy measures, the first steps of the then planned gradual termination of quantitative easing (QE) and lifting of the interest rates, which was reverted in the course of 2019 and 2020. The results from the constructed vector error correction model suggest that Fed’s monetary policy stance continues to influence the changes in the bond yields, the S&P 500 ind...

International Review of Economics & Finance, 2015

We estimate dynamic conditional correlations of financial asset returns across countries by an array of multivariate GARCH models and analyze spillover effects of the recent US financial crisis on 5 emerging Asian countries. We find a symptom of financial contagion around the collapse of Lehman Brothers in September 2008. There appears to be a regime shift to substantially higher conditional correlations that persisted for a fairly short-period of time. We also propose a novel approach that allows simultaneous estimations of the conditional correlation coefficient and the effects of its determining factors over time, which can be used to identify channels of spillovers. We find the dominant role of foreign investment for the conditional correlations in international equity markets. The dollar Libor-OIS spread, the sovereign CDS premium, and foreign investment are found to play significant roles in foreign exchange markets.

2019

This paper examines the effects of unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) by the Bank of Japan (BOJ) and the Federal Reserve (Fed) on the financial markets, taking international spillovers and a possible regime change into account. To this end, we apply the smooth-transition global VAR model to a set of major financial variables for 10 countries and one Euro zone. Our results suggest that the BOJ and the Fed's expansionary UMPs have had significant positive effects on domestic financial markets, particularly in more recent years. Our results also indicate that the BOJ's UMPs have rather limited effects on international financial markets and that the effect of the Fed's UMPs is approximately ten times larger.