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2010, Economic Affairs
AI
This paper discusses the economic challenges facing the UK government after 2010, highlighting a shift from relatively strong growth to a period of slower growth due to a range of factors. Key issues include a declining growth in the labor force, stagnating productivity in the public sector, rising taxation, and increased regulation on the banking sector. The author emphasizes the need for the next government to address these challenges to avoid a potential erosion of economic performance that could mirror the difficulties faced during the late 1970s.
2000
This paper draws upon the results of a larger project published as Government versus the market (Middleton 1996b). It also develops the long-run public finance dataset there reported and the reader is referred to ch.3 and app. I of this earlier work for full details of all of the estimates of public sector growth here discussed. I should like to thank the University of Bristol research fund for financial assistance, Professors George Peden and Bernard Alford, and participants in the ICBH 'British history 1945-95' conference and the All Souls Seminar in Economic and Social History for their helpful comments on earlier drafts of this paper. Any remaining errors of fact, analysis or interpretation are, of course, entirely my own. This paper was completed with knowledge of the latest edition of Bacon and Eltis's Britain's economic problem (Bacon and Eltis 1996), but without the benefit of having read the full text. I am grateful to Walter Eltis for discussing the substance of this new edition.. The following conventions are used. The prewar, interwar and postwar periods refer to the pre-First World War, interwar and post-Second World War periods respectively; EC-9 to the nine European Community states at first (1973) enlargement (EC-9** as EC-9 but excluding Ireland and Luxembourg) and EC-12 at second/third enlargement (1981, 1986), G-7 to the seven leading industrial economies (G-7** as G-7 but excluding Canada and Italy), and the OECD to the members of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development. Unless otherwise stated GDP is measured at current market prices and all growth rates are annual average compound percentage rates. This text is the 1997 version save that where papers cited were originally produced as working papers and are now published the later reference has been substituted.
2011
Some commentators have argued that the prosperity boom experienced under the last Labour government was a ‘free ride’ which benefited from the earlier policies of Margaret Thatcher and the Conservatives, and that Labour did little to improve the economy, leaving it in a more vulnerable state when the global recession came. New research from Anna Valero, John Van Reenen and
Economic Outlook, 1996
2011
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior permission in writing of the publisher nor be issued to the public or circulated in any form other than that in which it is published.
2012
The strange case of the disappearing productive capacity in the UK Mar 28 2012 Recent data shows that the recession will have led to a 10 per cent permanent loss of UK output in a few years time. Simon Wren-Lewis investigates this puzzle and discusses some of the potential explanations; including, the possibility that hysteresis effects [i.e. the possibility that high unemployment increases the rate of unemployment below which inflation begins to accelerate] may have operated more quickly than anyone thought, the survey data is simply wrong, and that underlying labour productivity has fallen.
For most people, economic growth is synonymous to better life and its effects include improved infrastructures, urban development, high employment rate and globalization. There are many aspects to consider before one can say that there is real economic growth taking place in a country. These aspects include Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment rate and inflation. This paper discusses United Kingdom’s economic growth based on these economic growth indicators as well as an example of its fiscal policy. Below is the summary of all data collected from UK’s economic growth indicators. The figures expressed uses in percentage and trillion dollars.
Economic Outlook, 1995
Andrew Sentance presents an upbeat assessment of UK medium-term growth potential. He argues that the economy can sustain a lower average level of unemployment than we have become accustomed to, without inflation. As a result, he argues that the UK economy can grow faster over the next ten years than recent trends or long-term performance suggest. A return to the growth rates of the "golden era" of the 1950s and 1960s is not out of the question. The key to this scenario is not a dash for growth, but steady management of the economy coupled with measures to raise educational standards, speed the introduction of new technology and improve the functioning of the labour market.
Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 2002
Economic Change and Employment Policy, 1980
The United Kingdom could easily squander the benefits of North Sea oil and gas production. The opportunities provided by the discovery and exploitation of this resource will be wasted on temporary increases in private and government consumption if the pattern of economic change over the next five years or so continues to be dictated by short-term considerations, and if governments fail to appreciate that manipulating the conventional fiscal and monetary instruments of policy has not and will not reverse the long-term deterioration in Britain's relative industrial performance. This chapter explains why we have reached the above conclusion and why the gap between devising short-run measures and stating long-run aspirations must be bridged by some realistic thinking about the medium term. To some extent we have allowed the chronology of recent political developments to dictate the order of presentation of our analysis. This starts with an assessment of the medium-term outlook for the economy and employment prior to the introduction of the June 1979 Budget by the Conservative government and moves on to explore the probable implications of the changes in policy announced or under serious consideration by the Government. The chapter is in five main sections. The first briefly describes the pre-Budget scenario together with the main assumptions which underlie that projection. This provides a convenient perspective from which to discuss the policies of the present government as indicated in the Budget strategy and related statements about policy over the medium term. Section 3.2 deals with these points of interpretation and analysis of what appears to be a very significant shift in approach to managing or not managing the economy. Section 3.3 then describes our standard view of the implications of current policy for the period up to 1985. The macroeconomic environment is discussed together with the outlook for major industrial groups. The high levels of unemployment being projected suggest that there 19 R. M. Lindley (ed.), Economic Change
2007
Despite its varying pattern of cyclical ups and downs, the British economy has, on average,grown at 2.5% per year for six decades, with minimal breaks in trend. So history warns us that government policies to change that trend may have little effect. There is a bit more movement in the trend growth of national income per head, which has been
2011
All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system or transmitted in any form or by any means without the prior permission in writing of the publisher nor be issued to the public or circulated in any form other than that in which it is published.
European Journal of Political Economy, 1999
In a recent review article Jonas Agell, Thomas Lindh and Henry claim that theoretical and empirical evidence does not allow any conclusion on whether there is a relationship between the rate of economic growth and the size of the public sector. They illustrate their conclusion with simple cross-country regressions where the relation between growth and public expenditure tilts from negative to positive when control variables are introduced. In our article we argue that Agell, Lindh and Ohlsson base their conclusion on empirical studies, and on their own regressions, without evaluating the econometric problems that arise. We extend Agell et al.´s review in order to highlight some of these problems. Furthermore, we present evidence showing that once a number of econometric issues are dealt with the relationship between growth and public expenditure may be more robustly negative than it first appears.
The Political Quarterly, 2010
2010
In the new era of austerity inaugurated since the election, one of the most central questions is how British government can do more with less, or at least do nearly the same with less. Leandro Carrera and Patrick Dunleavy clear up the confusions about a key concept–the productivity of the government sector.
The Economic History Review, 2004
Share ownership offers employees a real stake in their company. . . I want, through targeted reform, to reward long term commitment by employees. I want to encourage the new enterprise culture of team work in which everyone contributes and everyone benefits from success. -U.K. Chancellor of the Exchequer Gordon Brown (Her Majesty's Treasury 1999) 1. The government introduced further new legislation in 2001 (see http://www.inland revenue.gov.uk/pbr20OO/ir2. htm). J J J J J J J 928 0.247 J J J J J J J 965 0.175 J J J J J J J 965 0.201 J J J J J J J 969 0.241 Source: Authors' survey. Notes: Marginal effects reported; robust standard errors in parentheses. Y = yes; N = no. Checks indicate that variable is included. dl-digit SE dummies. **Significant at the 5 percent level. J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J J 0.19 (0.05) 2,031 0.18 0.17 0.46 Source: WERS 1998 (available at [http://www.dti.gov.uk/cr/emar/l998wers.htm]). Notes: Standard errors in parentheses. Y = yes; N = no. Checks indicate that the variable is included.
National Institute Economic Review - Natl Inst Econ Rev, 1992
2005
Manchester Business School Booth Street West Manchester M15 6PB 2
2007
The Labour government elected in May 1997 came into office stressing that it was ‘New Labour’ and pursuing a ‘third way’. In macroeconomic terms, the emphasis was on the avoidance of ‘tax and spend’ policies and restraints on public expenditure along with the adoption of the so-called ‘golden rule’ of public finances (as discussed below). There was something akin to a disavowal of a Keynesian approach to macroeconomic policies and specifically the use of fiscal policy to help steer the economy. There was an emphasis on labour market reforms and flexibility, which would, in effect, lower the ‘non-accelerating rate of unemployment’ and thereby lower unemployment. Whereas previous Labour governments had pursued a range of industrial and regional development policies to stimulate economic growth and lower unemployment, there was a major shift from those policies to those of labour (and to some degree product) market ‘flexibility’.
The Political Quarterly, 2010
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