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2018
This thesis presents three studies related to the effects of liquidity on financial markets. The first topic explores the relationship between funding liquidity and credit default swap (CDS) spreads. Using panel estimations, this study provides evidence that a tightening of funding liquidity increases spreads, effect which is three times larger in magnitude for high-CDS entities compared to low-CDS firms. Moreover, this paper highlights the impact of the 'CDS Small Bang' regulatory changes, especially the introduction of fixed coupons which induced upfront fees for trading CDSs. We find that after the introduction of the fees, funding liquidity changes have a much larger and more significant impact on CDS spread changes. The second study presents an empirical investigation of the theoretical predictions of Brunnermeier and Pedersen (2009) connecting funding liquidity with market liquidity and volatility and an extension of these linkages to CDS spreads. Specifically, in a Eu...
SSRN Electronic Journal
This paper explores the relationship between funding liquidity and credit default swap (CDS) spreads, evidencing the effects of the regulatory changes brought about by the introduction of the CDS Small Bang reforms for CDS contracts on European reference entities in June 2009. Using panel estimations, this study provides evidence that a tightening of funding liquidity increases CDS spreads, an effect which is three times larger in magnitude for high-CDS entities compared to low-CDS firms. This relationship increases in magnitude and significance after the implementation of the CDS Small Bang reforms which introduced fixed coupons for trading CDSs, leading to the exchange of upfront fees between CDS contract parties.
2013
This research investigates the effect of stock liquidity on credit default swap spreads. The relationship between stock liquidity and CDS spreads is tested empirically using a panel data of 82 companies spanning a period of 64 months. To ensure the accuracy of our findings, we use three proxies for stock liquidity, namely the bid-ask spread, Amihud illiquidity measure and the turnover ratio. When controlling for other known firm-level factors, we obtain a relationship between stock liquidity measures and CDS spreads, indicating that higher stock liquidity leads to lower CDS spread. This relation also holds when macroeconomic factors are used as control variables. Thereby, we manage to find a link between the stock market and the CDS market. This relationship helps predict the movement of CDS spreads by analyzing stock liquidity in the developed equity market.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
This paper investigates the role of credit and liquidity factors in explaining corporate CDS price changes during normal and crisis periods. We find that liquidity risk is more important than credit risk regardless of market conditions. Moreover, in the period prior to the recent "Great Recession" credit risk plays no role in explaining CDS price changes. The dominance of liquidity effects casts serious doubts on the relevance of CDS price changes as an indicator of default risk dynamics.
2017
This paper empirically analyses the relationship between bank capital and liquidity and the impact of those connections on the market probability of default. Our sample consist of an unbalanced panel of EU Large banks with listed CDS contracts during the period 2005-2015, which allow us to consider the impact of the recent financial crisis. We find that bank capital and funding liquidity risk as defined in Basel III have an economically meaningful bidirectional relationship. However, the effect on CDS spread is ambiguous. While capital has a large impact on CDS spread changes, liquidity risk is priced only when falls below the regulatory threshold. Moreover, the interaction between those variables depends on the overall level of risk.
2010
Using data from the credit default swap (CDS), corporate bond, and equity markets, we construct several measures of liquidity and examine the spill-over of liquidity shocks across these markets. Based on the principal component analysis of multiple liquidity measures, we show that there is a dominant first principal component in each of the markets. However, the linkage of liquidity shocks varies between different markets. In particular, there is a common component between the equity and both CDS and bond markets, but not between the CDS and bond market. Moreover, the vector autoregression results show that while there is spill-over of liquidity shocks between equity and CDS markets, surprisingly there is no clear spill-over of liquidity shocks between equity and bond markets. There appears to be a time lag of liquidity spill-over from the CDS to both bond and equity markets. Finally, we find no evidence of liquidity spill-over from bond to CDS market. Key Words: Liquidity shock; Co...
Review of Finance, 2017
In empirically exploring the link between funding liquidity and market liquidity, the greatest challenge is to designate a suitable market that shows such linkages. In this respect, the 15-year Japanese floating (JF)-rate bond market, characterized by the lack of diversity among highly leveraged trading strategies, is an ideal case for investigation. A clean measure of market liquidity, liquidity discount rate (LDR), is estimated from JF prices and the LDR is found to be intertwined with funding liquidity only during the crisis. The deterioration of funding liquidity precedes that of the LDR, thus providing evidence of the outbreak of liquidity spiral.
2015
Using a sample of 356 U.S. non-financial firms from 2002 to 2011, we derive endogenous systematic credit risk and Credit Default Swap (CDS) illiquidity factors, and show that they dominate firm-specific and exogenous market factors as determinants of individual firms' CDS spreads. Our model performs well for cross-sectional predictions and can be used for estimating CDS spreads for firms that do not have traded CDSs. Our findings question Basel III's adoption of CDS-implied probability for counterparty risk management, as CDS spread is not a pure individual firm default risk measure devoid of market credit and illiquidity premia.
Recent research has shown that default risk accounts for only a part of the total yield spread onrisky corporate bonds relative to their risk-less benchmarks. One candidate for the unexplained portionof the spread is a premium for liquidity. We investigate this possibility by relating the liquidity ofcorporate bonds to the basis between the credit default swap (CDS) price of the issuer and the parequivalentcorporate bond yield spread. The liquidity of a bond is measured using a recently developedmeasure called latent liquidity, which is defined as the weighted average turnover of funds holding thebond, where the weights are their fractional holdings of the bond. We find that bonds with higherlatent liquidity are more expensive relative to their CDS contracts, after controlling for other realizedmeasures of liquidity. However highly illiquid bonds with high default risk are also expensive, consistentwith limits to arbitrage between CDS and bond markets, due to the higher costs of â¬S...
This paper decomposes the explained part of the CDS spread changes of 31 listed euro area banks according to various risk drivers. The choice of the credit risk drivers is inspired by the Merton (1974) model. Individual CDS liquidity and other market and business variables are identified to complement the Merton model and are shown to play an important role in explaining credit spread changes. Our decomposition reveals, however, highly changing dynamics in the credit, liquidity, and business cycle and market wide components. This result is important since supervisors and monetary policy makers extract different signals from liquidity based CDS spread changes than from business cycle or credit risk based changes. For the recent financial crisis, we confirm that the steeply rising CDS spreads are due to increased credit risk. However, individual CDS liquidity and market wide liquidity premia played a dominant role. In the period before the start of the crisis, our model and its decomp...
Empirical Economics
We employ a multi-factor analysis from both a firm-specific (microeconomic) and market-specific (macroeconomic) perspective to examine the determinants of credit default swap (CDS) spreads in the USA, the UK and Japan between 2005 and 2012. We investigate both aggregate (cross-country) and individual market data so that a comparative analysis can be performed. Our results reveal that (i) in general, Tobin’s Q, stock market returns, and the risk-free interest rate possess significant explanatory power for CDS spreads; (ii) the relationship identified is found to exist in all three markets with varying strength; (iii) despite the added information flow, the 2007–2009 financial crisis did not shorten the persistence (adjustment speed) of CDS spreads to variations in our explanatory variables; and (iv) degree of firm leverage appears to have a significant influence on CDS spreads. These results are robust to various model specifications. Synthesizing our overall results, we maintain tha...
Social Science Research Network, 2017
Using a sample of 356 U.S. non-financial firms from 2002 to 2011, we derive endogenous systematic credit risk and Credit Default Swap (CDS) illiquidity factors, and show that they dominate firm-specific and exogenous market factors as determinants of individual firms' CDS spreads. Our model performs well for cross-sectional predictions and can be used for estimating CDS spreads for firms that do not have traded CDSs. Our findings question Basel III's adoption of CDS-implied probability for counterparty risk management, as CDS spread is not a pure individual firm default risk measure devoid of market credit and illiquidity premia.
Abstract Using data from the credit default swap (CDS), corporate bond, and equity markets, we construct several measures of liquidity and examine the spill-over of liquidity shocks across these markets. Based on the principal component analysis of multiple liquidity measures, we show that there is a dominant first principal component in each of the markets. However, the linkage of liquidity shocks varies between dierent,markets. In particular, there is a common component between the equity and both CDS and bond markets, but not between the CDS and bond market. Moreover, the vector autoregression results show that while there is spill-over of liquidity shocks between equity and CDS markets, surprisingly there is no clear spill-over of liquidity shocks between equity and bond markets. There appears to be a time lag of liquidity spill-over from the CDS to both bond and equity markets. Finally, we find no evidence of liquidity spill-over from bond to CDS market. Key Words: Liquidity sh...
2017
The recent global economic downturn that erupted in the mid 2007 saw an increase of the Credit Default Swaps (CDS) by hundred basis points and severe liquidity crunch in the financial sector of the United States. The recession phase highlighted the importance of the liquidity for the investors and underlined the importance of understanding the connection between the liquidity of the market and the credit markets. In depth, this study tries to understand the relation between the liquidity risk in the CDS market and the credit risk. Along the same line of this study, a study conducted on the different Swiss and German companies revealed that credit risk is not the direct originator of the liquidity risk, but it created by a negative credit shock. In addition, this paper focuses on the causes that intensified the global crisis of (2007) as well as the macro-prudential policies are highlighted that will prevent a similar type of crisis in the future.
The British Accounting Review, 2019
This paper explores the interrelations between bank capital and liquidity and their impact on the market probability of default. We employ an unbalanced panel of large European banks with listed credit default swap (CDS) contracts during the period 2005-2015, which allow us to consider the impact of the recent financial crisis. Our evidence suggests that bank capital and funding liquidity risk as defined in Basel III have an economically meaningful bidirectional relationship. However, the effect on CDS spread is ambiguous. While capital appears to have a relatively large impact on CDS spread changes, liquidity risk is priced only when it falls below the regulatory threshold.
Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, 2011
The recent credit crisis has highlighted the importance of market liquidity and its interaction with the price of credit risk. We investigate this interaction by relating the liquidity of corporate bonds to the basis between the credit default swap (CDS) spread of the issuer and the par-equivalent bond yield spread. The liquidity of a bond is measured using a recently developed measure called latent liquidity, which is defined as the weighted average turnover of funds holding the bond, where the weights are their fractional holdings of the bond. We find that bonds with higher latent liquidity are more expensive relative to their CDS contracts after controlling for other realized measures of liquidity. Analysis of interaction effects shows that highly illiquid bonds of firms with a greater degree of uncertainty are also expensive, consistent with limits to arbitrage between CDS and bond markets, due to the higher costs of “shorting” illiquid bonds. Additionally, we document the posit...
2010
The most widely used gauges of the money market liquidity conditions reflect both credit and liquidity risk. In this paper, we put forward two approaches to infer the liquidity component. A first type of approach gauges the credit risk of the banks participating in the Euribor panel by first inferring their default probability from prices on own Credit Default Swap (CDS) contracts. The liquidity component is estimated as a residual. In the second approach, the liquidity component is derived along a simultaneous model estimate, where variables include unsecured inter-bank deposit rates, zero coupon yields on financial bonds, and zero coupon yields on Treasury bonds. The results presented in this paper confirm that, throughout the market turmoil, the rise in the money market spreads owed to both liquidity and credit risks, where the relative weights of these two components changed over time with credit risk becoming more and more relevant, while initially the liquidity risk accounted ...
RePEc: Research Papers in Economics, 2004
We use the information in credit-default swaps to obtain direct measures of the size of the default and nondefault components in corporate spreads. We find that the majority of the corporate spread is due to default risk. This result holds for all rating categories and is robust to the definition of the riskless curve. We also find that the nondefault component is time varying and strongly related to measures of bond-specific illiquidity as well as to macroeconomic measures of bond-market liquidity.
We use the information in credit default swaps to obtain direct measures of the size of the default and nondefault components in corporate spreads. We find that the majority of the corporate spread is due to default risk. This result holds for all rating categories and is robust to the definition of the riskless curve. We also find that the nondefault component is time varying and strongly related to measures of bond-specific illiquidity as well as to macroeconomic measures of bond market liquidity.
Journal of Financial Services Research, 2006
This paper compares the pricing of credit risk in the bond market and the fast-growing credit default swap (CDS) market. The empirical findings confirm the theoretical prediction that bond spreads and CDS spreads move together in the long run. Nevertheless, in the short run this relationship does not always hold. The deviation is largely due to different responses of the two markets to changes in credit conditions. By looking into the dynamic linkages between the two spreads, I find that the CDS market often moves ahead of the bond market in price adjustment, particularly for US entities. Liquidity also matters for their role in price discovery. Surprisingly, the terms of CDS contracts and the short-sale restriction in the cash market only have a very small impact. BIS Working Papers are written by members of the Monetary and Economic Department of the Bank for International Settlements, and from time to time by other economists, and are published by the Bank. The views expressed in them are those of their authors and not necessarily the views of the BIS.
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