Some points for clarification or discussion

2015

Notes: Mediterranean case studies in blue, Atlantic in purple, Baltic in red, Black Sea in yellow, and North Sea in green.

2013

2000

Assessing the impacts -identifying responses. Highlights of the first three years of the UK Climate Impacts Programme" can be obtained from DETR free literature (Product code 00EP0282) or from the UKCIP Programme Office.

Journal of Applied Ecology, 2010

Global Environmental Change, 2014

The Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, 2022

This special report assesses new knowledge since the IPCC 5th Assessment Report (AR5) and the Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5ºC (SR15) on how the ocean and cryosphere have and are expected to change with ongoing global warming, the risks and opportunities these changes bring to ecosystems and people, and mitigation, adaptation and governance options for reducing future risks. Chapter 1 provides context on the importance of the ocean and cryosphere, and the framework for the assessments in subsequent chapters of the report. All people on Earth depend directly or indirectly on the ocean and cryosphere. The fundamental roles of the ocean and cryosphere in the Earth system include the uptake and redistribution of anthropogenic carbon dioxide and heat by the ocean, as well as their crucial involvement of in the hydrological cycle. The cryosphere also amplifies climate changes through snow, ice and permafrost feedbacks. Services provided to people by the ocean and/or cryosphere include food and freshwater, renewable energy, health and wellbeing, cultural values, trade and transport. {1.1, 1.2, 1.5} Sustainable development is at risk from emerging and intensifying ocean and cryosphere changes. Ocean and cryosphere changes interact with each of the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Progress on climate action (SDG 13) would reduce risks to aspects of sustainable development that are fundamentally linked to the ocean and cryosphere and the services they provide (high confidence 1). Progress on achieving the SDGs can contribute to reducing the exposure or vulnerabilities of people and communities to the risks of ocean and cryosphere change (medium confidence). {1.1} Communities living in close connection with polar, mountain, and coastal environments are particularly exposed to the current and future hazards of ocean and cryosphere change. Coasts are home to approximately 28% of the global population, including around 11% living on land less than 10 m above sea level. Almost 10% of the global population lives in the Arctic or high mountain regions. People in these regions face the greatest exposure to ocean and cryosphere change, and poor and marginalised people here are particularly vulnerable to climate-related hazards and risks (very high confidence). The adaptive capacity of people, communities and nations is shaped by social, political, cultural, economic, technological, institutional, geographical and demographic factors. {1.1, 1.5, 1.6, Cross-Chapter Box 2 in Chapter 1} 1 In this report, the following summary terms are used to describe the available evidence: limited, medium, or robust; and for the degree of agreement: low, medium or high. A level of confidence is expressed using five qualifiers: very low, low, medium, high and very high, and typeset in italics, for example, medium confidence. For a given evidence and agreement statement, different confidence levels can be assigned, but increasing levels of evidence and degrees of agreement are correlated with increasing confidence (see Section 1.9.2 and Figure 1.4 for more details). 2 In this report, the following terms have been used to indicate the assessed likelihood of an outcome or a result: Virtually certain 99-100% probability, Very likely 90-100%, Likely 66-100%, About as likely as not 33-66%, Unlikely 0-33%, Very unlikely 0-10%, and Exceptionally unlikely 0-1%. Additional terms (Extremely likely: 95-100%, More likely than not >50-100%, and Extremely unlikely 0-5%) may also be used when appropriate. Assessed likelihood is typeset in italics, for example, very likely (see Section 1.9.2 and Figure 1.4 for more details). This Report also uses the term 'likely range' to indicate that the assessed likelihood of an outcome lies within the 17-83% probability range. Ocean and cryosphere changes are pervasive and observed from high mountains, to the polar regions, to coasts, and into the deep ocean. AR5 assessed that the ocean is warming (0 to 700 m: virtually certain 2 ; 700 to 2,000 m: likely), sea level is rising (high confidence), and ocean acidity is increasing (high confidence). Most glaciers are shrinking (high confidence), the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets are losing mass (high confidence), sea ice extent in the Arctic is decreasing (very high confidence), Northern Hemisphere snow cover is decreasing (very high confidence), and permafrost temperatures are increasing (high confidence). Improvements since AR5 in observation systems, techniques, reconstructions and model developments, have advanced scientific characterisation and understanding of ocean and cryosphere change, including in previously identified areas of concern such as ice sheets and Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC). {1.1, 1.4, 1.8.1} Evidence and understanding of the human causes of climate warming, and of associated ocean and cryosphere changes, has increased over the past 30 years of IPCC assessments (very high confidence). Human activities are estimated to have caused approximately 1.0ºC of global warming above pre-industrial levels (SR15). Areas of concern in earlier IPCC reports, such as the expected acceleration of sea level rise, are now observed (high confidence). Evidence for expected slowdown of AMOC is emerging in sustained observations and from long-term palaeoclimate reconstructions (medium confidence), and may be related with anthropogenic forcing according to model simulations, although this remains to be properly attributed. Significant sea level rise contributions from Antarctic ice sheet mass loss (very high confidence), which earlier reports did not expect to manifest this century, are already being observed. {1.1, 1.4} Ocean and cryosphere changes and risks by the end-of-century (2081-2100) will be larger under high greenhouse gas emission scenarios, compared with low emission scenarios (very high confidence). Projections and assessments of future climate, ocean and cryosphere changes in the Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate (SROCC) are commonly based on coordinated climate model experiments from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) forced with Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of future radiative forcing. Current emissions continue to grow at a rate consistent with a high emission future without effective climate change mitigation policies (referred to as RCP8.5). The SROCC assessment contrasts this high greenhouse gas emission future with a low greenhouse gas emission, high mitigation future (referred to as RCP2.6) that gives a two in three chance of limiting warming by the end of the century to less than 2 o C above pre-industrial. {Cross-Chapter Box 1 in Chapter 1}

2006

2012

The difference between the versions Q2.2 (updated by Quantis) and 2.1 are mainly that water turbined, water withdrawal and water consumption are added, and that aquatic acidification, aquatic eutrophication and water turbined are brought to the damage category ecosystem quality. Furthermore, climate change CFs are adapted with GWP for 100 year time horizon. The differences between the versions v2.1 and v2.0 are minor. They concern mainly 1° adaptation reflecting the update of the DALY used per case of cancer and non-cancer (respectively 13 and 1.3 instead of 6.7 and 0.67) and 2° some format update (typos corrected, email addresses updated, font improved, references updated, etc.

Elsevier Oceanography Series, 2004

Cambridge University Press eBooks, 2022

How Should Impacts Be Assessed? gunhild rosqvist, hannu i. heikkinen, leena suopajä rvi 1 , carl ö sterlin 2