Earthquake loss estimation for the New York City area

Using the latest information on earthquake hazard in California and the publicly available demographic data, we have made estimations of expected future earthquake economic losses in the State. The estimates presented in this paper are for two categories: scenario earthquake loss, and annualized earthquake loss. For scenario earthquake loss, we quantified the damage and loss expected in ten counties in the San Francisco Bay Area (SFBA) and in ten counties in Southern California, due to possible earthquakes on known faults in the two regions. To accomplish this task, we used scenario ground motions, or shake-maps of 50 potential earthquakes published by the United States Geological Survey (USGS). Of these 50 scenario shake-maps, 34 represent the expected ground motion hazard in the SFBA counties and 16 represent the expected ground motion hazard in the southern region. For annualized earthquake loss, we estimated the overall long-term damage and loss using the Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA) maps for the State of California, prepared and published by the California Geological Survey (CGS) and the USGS. These PSHA maps show the expected ground motions of specified annual chance of occurrence at any location within the State. The effect on ground motions on the soils at the site are taken into account for both the shake-maps and the PSHA maps, through the use of appropriate ground motion attenuation relations and soil correction factors. Liquefaction effect was taken into account for the annualized loss study, but not for the scenario loss study. Due to the non-existent or incomplete data on other earthquake hazards and effects, including ground rupture, landslide and fire, these potential hazards were not considered in either the study of scenario earthquake loss or the annualized earthquake loss.

2008

A damage estimation exercise has been carried out using the building stock inventory and population database of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality and selected European earthquake loss estimation packages: KOERILOSS, SELENA, ESCENARIS, SIGE, and DBELA. The input groundmotions, common to all models, correspond to a ''credible worst case scenario'' involving the rupture of the four segments of the Main Marmara Fault closest to Istanbul in a M w 7.5 earthquake. The aim of the exercise is to assess the applicability of the selected software packages to earthquake loss estimation in the context of rapid post-earthquake response in European urban centers. The results in terms of predicted building damage and social losses are critically compared amongst each other, as well as with the results of previous scenario-based earthquake loss assessments carried out for the study area. The key methodological aspects and data needs for European rapid post-earthquake loss estimation are thus identified.

Earthquake Spectra, 2006

Journal of Earthquake Engineering, 2008

2014

In recent years, natural disasters caused huge human and economic losses, and subsequently high post disaster relief, recovery and reconstruction investments by governments, the private sector and international donors were needed. There is currently a paradigm shift from after the event approaches to more proactive ones, including risk reduction and risk financing options. However, reliable and up-to-date estimation of risk is a key dimension towards developing effective risk management strategies and risk reduction activities. This paper focuses on earthquake risk for Shiraz, the 4th largest city of Iran located in a high seismic hazard zone with additional high socio-economic and historical importance. Considering that risk analysis for Shiraz is a complex task which requires comprehensive information on all elements at risk, an catastrophe modeling approach is adopted and detailed analysis of potential future economic losses as well as vulnerability assessments for assets within ...

I. ABSTRACT Seismic damage simulation and loss estimation is a very important task for the civil protection departments and urban planning policies for earthquake hazard mitigation. Many different software packages have been produced around the world in order to provide accurate loss estimates. Building damage functions for ground shaking include: (1) fragility curves that describe the probability of reaching or exceeding different states of damage given peak building response, and (2) building capacity (pushover) curves that are used (with damping-modified demand spectra) to determine peak building response. For use in lifeline damage evaluation, a separate set of building fragility curves expresses the probability of structural damage in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA). Damage is described by one of four

Natural Hazards Review, 2008

The risk associated with earthquake hazards on highway systems is dependent on the complexity of a network and its redundancy in providing traffic flow. Earthquake loss estimation studies can provide decision makers with an appreciation of the importance of having a highway network resistant to earthquakes and information to make the network resistant to these events. The direct economic loss was estimated for a major metropolitan area, St. Louis, MO, for a series of earthquake scenarios. The primary component of the study was damage to bridges within the highway system. The study zone covers the St. Louis metropolitan area and its surrounding suburban regions. The study region includes several major alluvial river valleys with liquefaction susceptible areas. Earthquake scenarios with epicenters in St. Louis, Missouri (Mw 7.0), Germantown, IL (Mw 7.0) and New Madrid, MO (Mw 7.7) were selected to contrast high impact/low probability and low impact/higher probability events. The losses to the bridge infrastructure were estimated to range from $70 to $800 million depending on the earthquake event. The data collection, generation and interpretation are described along with the procedures required to carry out the loss estimation using the GIS-based HAZUS-MH system. The output of this project was used as input for a hybrid indirect loss calculation presented in the companion paper.

International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering, 2017

Earthquake loss estimation (ELE), generally also referred to as earthquake risk assessment, is a comparably young research discipline which, at first, relied on empirical observations based on a macroseismic intensity scale. Later, with the advent of methodologies and procedures that are based on theoretical simulation in estimating physical damage under earthquake loading, the analytical approach for ELE was formulated. The open-source software SELENA, which is a joint development of NORSAR (Norway) and the University of Alicante (Spain), is undergoing a constant development. One of the more recent features being included is the possibility to address topographic amplification of seismic ground motion. Additionally, SELENA has been adapted by including various methods for the analytical computation of structural damage and loss. SELENA now offers complete flexibility in the use of different types of fragility curves based on various ground motion intensity parameters (e.g. PGA, Sa, Sd), which has been suggested by many recently released guidelines (e.g. FEMA P-58, GEM-ASV, SYNER-G, HAZUS-MH). Besides, under the framework of the ongoing Horizon 2020 LIQUEFACT project, SELENA is extended in order to allow the consideration of liquefaction-induced ground displacements and respective structural damage. In general, software tools for ELE are particularly useful in two different settings, i.e., for disaster management and (re)insurance purposes. Both sectors pose very different demands on ELE studies: while the (re)insurance sector is foremost interested in the direct and indirect economic losses caused by an earthquake to its insured physical assets, those institutions (often governmental and nongovernmental organizations) in charge of disaster emergency management and response are more interested in reliable estimates on human losses and the potential short-and long-term social consequences. Being aware about these peculiar differences between software tools for disaster management and insurance applications, NORSAR/UA thereby offers two in its core similar software tools, i.e., the opensource software SELENA and the proprietary software PML (Probable Maximum Loss) which is actively used by the insurance association in Chile (South America) since 2011.

Natural Hazards Review, 2008

The risk associated with earthquake hazards on highway systems is dependent on the complexity of a network and its redundancy in providing traffic flow. Earthquake loss estimation studies can provide decision makers with an appreciation of the importance of having a highway network resistant to earthquakes and information to make the network resistant to these events. The direct economic loss was estimated for a major metropolitan area, St. Louis, for a series of earthquake scenarios. The primary component of the study was damage to bridges within the highway system. The study zone covers the St. Louis metropolitan area and its surrounding suburban regions. The study region includes several major alluvial river valleys with liquefaction susceptible areas. Earthquake scenarios with epicenters in St. Louis ͑M W 7.0͒, Germantown, Ill. ͑M W 7.0͒ and New Madrid, Mo. ͑M W 7.7͒ were selected to contrast high impact/low probability and low impact/higher probability events. The losses to the bridge infrastructure were estimated to range from $70 to $800 million depending on the earthquake event. The data collection, generation, and interpretation are described along with the procedures required to carry out the loss estimation using the geographic information system-based HAZUS-MH system. The output of this project was used as input for a hybrid indirect loss calculation presented in the companion paper.

Proceedings of the 14th …, 2008

The paper contributes to an assessment of the uncertainties involved in the use of current loss modeling methodologies when applied to the estimation of building damage and casualty generation in urban areas. The work derives from studies conducted within the EU-funded LESSLOSS project with the aim of providing a basis for urban planning authorities methods to assess alternative mitigation strategies. Research teams in Istanbul, Thessaloniki and Lisbon developed methods applicable to their own city and building stock. A benchmarking study was then carried out to compare the results of the three approaches when applied to a standardized "urban block". The paper, presents the results of the benchmarking study, and reviews the differences between the loss estimation approaches used, There are significant differences in surface ground motion, and even greater differences in predicted damage and casualties resulting from the ground motions using the different approaches. The paper discusses possible reasons for these differences and the implications for the estimation of uncertainty in urban loss estimation.

GeoCongress 2006, 2006

The long recurrence period and high consequence earthquakes events in the New Madrid Seismic Zone have caused some federal agencies (e.g., NEHRP, FHWA) to look at the more densely populated areas where higher seismic risk is present. This paper presents the data collection, interpretation, and analysis of the geotechnical information required for an earthquake loss estimation study in St. Louis metro area. The loss estimation study was limited to the highway transportation system, where only the major highways were considered. The project information was processed using a GIS, and the subsequent loss analysis was executed using the HAZUS-MH program.

Natural Hazards, 2010

The aim of this paper is to present earthquake loss estimations for a portion of downtown Ottawa, Canada, using the HAZUS-MH (Hazards United States Multi-Hazard) software tool. The assessment is performed for a scenario earthquake of moment magnitude 6.5, at an epicentral distance of 15 km, occurring during business hours. A level 2 HAZUS-MH analysis was performed where the building inventory, microzonation studies, and site-specific ground motion hazard maps (2% exceedence probability in 50 years) were all improved based on local information. All collected data were assembled into a set of standard geodatabases that are compatible with the HAZUS-MH software using a GISspecific procedure. The results indicate that the greatest losses are expected in unreinforced masonry buildings and commercial buildings. Sensitivity studies show that soil classes, the vulnerability of schools, and the spatial scale of loss estimations are also important factors to take into account.

2000

The devastating effects of earthquakes on human life have been demonstrated repeatedly in the past decade, as several moderate and major earthquakes have struck in urban areas. Three such earthquakes affected densely populated urban areas in California and Japan. Each of these earthquakes was costly and destructive in their own right. The Northridge earthquake has earned the title of the

The ground shaking intensity used for calculating the quasi-static forces to be applied in building design according to the National Building Code of Canada (NBCC) is established by probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. The probability level for which the amplitudes of design motions are determined in the current building code, NBCC-1995, corresponds to a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years. The insurance industry has funded loss estimation studies at the University of British Columbia for a number of cities in British Columbia, including the largest, Vancouver. This city has the highest seismic hazard among the three most populated urban centres in Canada. A major objective of the studies was to provide a rational basis for discussions with government on how to cope with catastrophic losses in the region. For this reason, it was considered appropriate to use the same probability of exceedance of shaking intensity as that used in NBCC-1995. The seismic provisions of the next edition of the code, NBCC-2005, will be based on a probability level corresponding to a 2% chance of exceedance in 50 years. This paper investigates the impact of this change on the loss estimations for Vancouver. The concepts and strategies used in the Vancouver study are of wide applicability and should be of interest to others engaged in risk assessment.

Earthquake Spectra, 2006

This paper presents interim results of an ongoing study of building damage and losses likely to occur due to a repeat of the 1906 San Francisco earthquake using the HAZUS technology. Recent work by Boatwright et al. (2006) provides MMI-based ShakeMap estimates of spectral response accelerations derived from observations of intensities in the 1906 San Francisco earthquake. This paper calculates damage and loss estimates using those estimated ground motions, compares the resulting estimates with those calculated using a method parallel with that of current seismic provisions of building codes for a magnitude M7.9 event on the San Andreas Fault, and contrasts differences in damage and loss patterns for these two scenarios. The study region of interest comprises 19 counties of the greater San Francisco Bay Area and adjacent areas of Northern California, covering 24,000 square miles, with a population of over 10 million people and about $1.5 trillion of building and contents exposure. The majority of this property and population is within 40 km (25 miles) of the San Andreas Fault. The current population of this Northern California region is about ten times what it was in 1906, and the replacement value of buildings is about 500 times greater. Despite improvements in building codes and construction practices, the growth of the region over the past hundred years causes the range of estimated fatalities, approximately 800 to 3,400 depending on time of day and other variables, to be comparable to what it was in 1906. The forecast property loss to buildings for a