Influence of Long-Term Demographic Trends on Migration Dynamics
Başak Yavçan2021
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Abstract
This deliverable aims to lay out the impact of demographic drivers on migratory movements, and in particular on critical increases in flows of migration. To do so, this working paper first quantifies crisis in terms of numbers of rapid increases of outflows from countries of origin for a time period of 1960-2015. Having laid out the specific operationalizations of the independent variables that are proxies of demographic drivers and the control variables, it presents the flows and crisis level flows of migration cross sectionally and across time. Having considered the crisis from the perspective of countries of origin, it then incorporates the recipient countries via exploring the main corridors with the help of dyadic data, which takes relationality of the country pairs into consideration. The results contribute to the discussion on the role of urbanization, labor market characteristics and human development indicators in important ways. Consistently, many demographic drivers showe...
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