Modeling Migration Dynamics of Immigrants

SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000

The Case of The Netherlands *

2005

In this paper we analyze the demographic factors that influence the return and repeated migration of immigrants. Using longitudinal data from Statistics Netherlands we track migration histories of recent immigrants to The Netherlands and analyze which migrants will stay in the country, which migrants are more prone to leave and how quick they leave. In order to identify these migrants we apply a mover-stayer duration model on the time spent in the country. We also analyze the return from abroad to The Netherlands of these migrants. Results disclose differences among migrants by migration motive and by country of origin and lend support to our analytical framework. Combining the model for departure from the country and the model for returning to the country provides the long-run stay probability of a specific migrant. It also yields a framework for simulating the life-cycle migration dynamics. The major findings are: (1) labor migrants and students are more prone to leave and migrants who come for family reasons remain in the country more often, (2) migrants from the 'guestworker' countries, Turkey and Morocco, will stay in the country more often than migrants from Western countries.

Dutch SOPEMI-Report 2003, 2005

This report provides an overview of recent immigration and settlement patterns for the four study countries. The most recent available statistics are used and patterns over the past decade are described. Characteristics of the immigration flows (among other origin, age, and gender), as well as, other issues related to settlement (for example nationality and citizenship) are discussed. Different immigration flows, including asylum seekers and refugees, are presented. This part provides as much detail and comparability as possible by using different data sources. Special emphasis is put on migrants coming from Africa and Latin America. We make use of existing data and complement it with material specifically gathered and analyzed for the purpose of this study.

2015

The majority of immigrants stay only temporarily in the host country. When many migrations are temporary, it is important to know who leaves and who stays, and why. The key questions for the host country are whether immigrants are net contributors to the welfare system and whether migrants assimilate quickly. The key questions for the home country are whether migrants return and who returns. The host country gains when unsuccessful migrants leave, while the home country may gain when successful migrants leave. Empirical evidence reveals that both low-income-earning and high-income-earning migrants leave the host country quite soon.

Studies and Comments, 2002

119 Migration and Immigrants: The Case of The Netherlands Aslan Zorlu/Joop Hartog 1. Introduction In the early 1960s, the Netherlands switched from an emigration to immigration country, possibly for the second time since the Golden Age. The increase in prosperity in the Netherlands ...

Review of Economics and Statistics, 2013

Using administrative panel data on the entire population of new labour immigrants to The Netherlands, we estimate the causal effects of labour dynamics on their return decisions. Specifically, the roles of unemployment and re-employment spells on immigration durations are examined. The endogeneity of labour market outcomes and the return migration decision, if ignored, confounds the causal effect. This empirical challenge is addressed using the "timing-of-events" method. We estimate the model separately for distinct immigrant groups, and find that, overall, unemployment spells shorten immigration durations, while reemployment spells delay returns for all but one group. The magnitude of the causal effect differs across groups.

The Review of Economics and Statistics, 2014

Using administrative panel data on the entire population of new labor immigrants to the Netherlands, we estimate the effects of individual labor market spells on immigration durations using the timing-of-events method. The model allows for correlated unobserved heterogeneity across migration, unemployment, and employment processes. We find that unemployment spells increase return probabilities for all immigrant groups, while reemployment spells typically delay returns.

2009

United Kingdom François Gemenne 3.1 Introduction 3.2 UK statistics on migration 3.3 Stock of foreign-born population 3.4 Net migration and migration flows 3.5 Naturalisations 3.6 Conclusions PART 2 GUESTWORKER RECEIVING COUNTRIES 4 Austria Ursula Reeger 4.1 Prerequisites 4.2 Overview of the most important stock and flow data sources 4.3 Description of the stock of foreign population 4.4 Description of flows 4.5 Conclusion: Statistics and reality in the Austrian context 5 Germany Stefan Rühl 5.1 Introduction 5.2 Overview of stock and flow data 5.3 Description of the stock of foreign population 5.4 Description of flows 5.5 Critical outlook 6 Switzerland Philippe Wanner, Denise Efionayi and Rosita Fibbi 6.1 Introduction 6.2 Institutions, definitions and statistical sources 6.3 Dynamics and structures of the foreign population 6.4 Migration policy 6.5 Conclusions PART 3 POST-COMMUNIST COUNTRIES 7 Hungary Á gnes Hárs and Endre Sik 7.1 Introduction 7.2 The most important data sources 6 STATISTICS AND REALITY 7.3 The stock of foreign citizens in Hungary and the inflows and outflows 7.4 Characteristics of recent inflows and outflows 7.5 A critical but positive outlook 7.6 An additional and alternative method of measuring migration: The Local Government Monitoring and Database Project (LGMDP) 8 Poland Jakub Bijak and Izabela Koryś 8.1 Introduction 8.2 Historical and political background of Polish migration data 8.3 Migration artefact: What do the Polish data reveal? 8.4 Conclusions and recommendations 9 Romania Ancuţa Daniela Tompea and Sebastian Nȃstuţȃ 9.1 Introduction 9.2 Overview of the most important stock and flow data sources 9.3 Statistics on emigration flows 9.4 Immigration 9.5 Conclusions PART 4 NEW IMMIGRANT RECEIVING COUNTRIES 10 Greece Martin Baldwin-Edwards with Katerina Apostolatou 10.1 Introduction 10.2 Overview of stock and flow statistics 10.3 Empirical observations of stocks and flows 10.4 Critical outlook 10.5 Towards some conclusions 11 Portugal Maria I. Baganha 11.1 Introduction 11.2 Stocks 11.3 Acquisition of nationality 11.4 Flows 11.5 Conclusion TABLE OF CONTENTS PREFACE 4 In 2002, the national statistical institute in Poland (CSO) registered 17,806 Polish citizens leaving for Germany while the German population register counted 100,986 Poles entering Germany the same year (see Bijak & Koryś in this publication).