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2005
The overall growth performance of the MENA region over the period 1960-2000 has been both mixed and characterized by a higher degree of volatility compared with other regions in the world. In comparing the growth pattern of the MENA region within an international perspective, we have found that: capital is less efficient; trade openness less beneficial to growth; and the impact of adverse external shocks more pronounced. In addition, Total Factor Productivity G rowth (TFPG) in the MENA region, was not an important source of growth in comparison with other regions owing to among other things, the lower quality of its institutions, modest stock of human capital and its educational system that focused on preparing s tudents for public sector employment. Within the MENA region, non-oil and diversified economies have fared much better than oil-exporting countries both in terms of output growth and TFPG. Finally, the degree of exposure to internal and external shocks, the extent of economic diversification and international competitiveness, were found to be important factors explaining variations in growth performance within the MENA region.
Contributions to Economic Analysis, 2006
The overall growth performance of the MENA region over the period 1960-2000 has been both mixed and characterized by a higher degree of volatility compared to the other regions in the world. In comparing the growth pattern of the MENA region within an international perspective, we have found that: capital is less efficient; trade openness less beneficial to growth and the impact of adverse external shocks more pronounced. In addition, Total Factor Productivity Growth (TFPG) in the MENA region, was not an important source of growth in comparison to the other regions owing to among other things, the lower quality of its institutions, modest stock of human capital and its educational system that focused on preparing students for public sector employment. Within the MENA region, non-oil and diversified economies have fared much better than the oil-exporting countries both in terms of output growth and TFPG. Finally, the degree of exposure to internal and external shocks, the extent of economic diversification and international competitiveness were found to be important factors explaining variations in growth performance within the MENA region.
2004
This Working Paper should not be reported as representing the views of the IMF. The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate. This paper analyzes the weak growth performance in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region during 1980-2000 using an empirical model of long-run growth. The relative importance of the factors affecting growth is shown to vary across 16 MENA countries. In GCC countries, where oil revenues are significant, large governments appear to have been a key factor stifling private-sector growth and impeding diversification. In other MENA countries poor institutional quality has held back growth. Political instability is also shown to have played a role. While the MENA region's growth differential with east Asia is explained well in the 1980s, this is less so in the 1990s.
2019
Using system panel GMM dynamic panel on a sample of nineteen MENA countries over the period 1990 – 2014, the study estimates the effect of financial stability on economic growth. Using the principal component analysis to create a composite index of financial stability consisting of a banking crisis dummy variable, the ratio of credit to government and state-owned enterprises to GDP, and the ratio of domestic credit to private sector as a percent of GDP, the estimation results show financial stability in the MENA region is important for boosting economic growth in the region. Furthermore, when dividing the sample between oil and non-oil exporters, the results suggests no statistically significant difference between the two groups in terms of the impact of financial stability on economic growth. Our results are robust to the use of different fixed effects and random effects estimation methodologies.
World Development, 2007
This paper reconsiders the A versus K debate, namely, which factor is the leading contributor to economic growth? productivity gains (A) or factor accumulation (K). The growth accounting analysis is conducted for ten MENA countries over the period 1960-1998. The longrun share of capital in national income is estimated using cointegration (country-specific) and panel data (region-specific) methods. As has been shown for many developing economies, we find that for most of the countries the share is much higher than the conventional share of 0.3-0.4. The growth accounting exercise conducted with the incorporation of human capital reveals that for the MENA region the contribution of productivity gains to economic growth is negligible and frequently even detrimental. Thus, we conclude that it is factor (both physical and human) accumulation that drives the economic performance of MENA economies.
2010
The views expressed in this Working Paper are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. Working Papers describe research in progress by the author(s) and are published to elicit comments and to further debate.
International Journal of Engineering and Management Research
To survive in present volatile economic conditions is a herculean task. Global economic circumstances, socio political conditions play important role in growth and development of economies. Evaluating economies in prevailing condition requires effective approach and judicious analysis. All the major economies, developing and underdeveloped economies are performing below to their potential and are tilted to the downslide. MENA economy is struggling due to war disturbance and continuously performing below to its expectation and its overall growth touched the historic low. Its economy slowed down drastically and its GDP is below to world GDP. It’s fiscal and current deficits worsened and rose above 3 percent of the GDP, its oil exporters, public finance, public expenditure and job market, Banking system and FDI declined and facing high fiscal adjustments. In some parameters MENA economy is better than world set standards and in many it is far below. The carried out study is secondary d...
The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, 2019
This study focus on the debate related to the sources of economic growth to show whether it arises from technological progress, physical or human capital accumulation in a selected Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries for the 1970-2014 period. With the assumption of a Harrod-neutral technological progress and panel cointegration analysis, the results give evidence to suggest that capital accumulation contributes more than productivity growth to economic growth in six MENA countries. Estimation outcomes also show that technological progress dominates sources of growth for more than half of the MENA countries. Most of these countries however do not accumulate economic growth from their human capital except for resources-rich and labor-importing MENA countries.
1994
This paper examines from an international perspective the growth experience of a group of 'non-oil' economies in the Middle East and North Africa region - Syria, Jordan, Egypt, Tunisia and Morocco - over the period 1966-85. The empirical framework focuses on four central variables: per-capita income, investment, school enrollment and population growth. An estimate is made of the relationship these variables have with each other as well as with other variables in a cross-section of nearly ninety countries, and the question is asked whether the regional group of countries conform to an international pattern. The main regional features uncovered are: (l) exceptionally high fertility rates compared to other countries at a similar stage of development, which may or not have imposed a heavy drag on economic growth; (2) a bias in national savings away from physical capital accumulation and, in the Mashreq, toward human capital accumulation; (3) a very low initial income level in ...
Contributions to Economic Analysis, 2006
International Journal of Trade and Global Markets, 2015
The objective of this study is to identify the factors that have an impact on the economic growth of oil-producing countries. To meet this objective, annual time series data for 28 countries were included in panel data analyses. According to the findings of the first analysis covering the countries with R&D data (19 countries), economic growth is positively affected by the amount of oil exported, export value index, financial openness index, public expenditures on education, foreign direct investment and expenditures on R&D. The findings of the second analysis, covering the countries without R&D data (nine countries), show that export value index, corruption perception index, economic freedom index and external debt have a positive effect on economic growth.
Occasional Papers, 1982
This paper quantitatively compares Middle East and North African (MENA) countries’ growth patterns with those of a sample of middle-income countries. Three complementary sets of growth determinants are tested: accumulation, institutions and structural change. After having estimated the model on a sample of middle income countries, our comparative analysis shows that MENA economies sharply contrast with other middle income emerging economies with respect to two main dimensions: (1) the sectoral structure of production and (2) the institutional environment. The assumption of complementary effect of the accumulation, institutional and structural growth determinants is also tested. We show that the MENA pattern of growth exhibits structural weaknesses, like the combination of a low pace of structural change and high corruption levels, which may have hindered the expansion of highly productive job, and possibly bred massive discontent in the region.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2018
The present study tried to understand spatial and temporal variation in economic growth and productivity of Middle East and North African Region for the period 1971-2014. Further, we also tested the hypothesis of regional convergence in neo-classical framework. The study is based on the Penn World Table data of sample of Middle East and North African countries. Our findings suggests that oil-dependent economies have shown large variations in growth which can be linked with the fluctuations of oil price. Due to rapid population and labour force growth (both nationals and immigrants) in most of the oil based economies, growth rates of per capita GDP and per worker GDP are quite meagre. Total factor productivity does not play a significant role and growth in the region is due to the capital accumulation. Both beta and sigma measures of convergence suggest that there is convergence in per worker GDP (labour productivity) and per capita GDP.
The Energy Journal, 2010
This paper examines how oil price shocks affect the output growth of selected MENA countries that are considered either net exporters or net importers of this commodity, but are too small to affect oil prices. That an individual country's economic performance does not affect world oil prices is imposed on the Vector Autoregressive setting as an identifying restriction. The estimates suggest that oil price increases have a statistically significant and positive effect on the outputs of Algeria,
Asian Journal of Research in Business Economics and Management, 2014
The paper investigates determinants of economic growth in GCC countries using VECM approach. The results report that in a 10-year horizon, FDI accounts 15.87%, 10.29%, 16.58%, 0.89% and 6.88% for Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and United Arab Emirates respectively in shocks in their economic growth compared to the contributions of exports (9.55%, 1.33%, 6.85%, 10.38% and 20.9%) and gross capital formation (0.83%, 0.07%, 9.88%, 1.98 and 17.98%) for the countries respectively. The results also show that the main determinants of economic growth are foreign direct investment and gross capital formation for Bahrain. For Kuwait, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, exports and gross capital formation are the main determinants of economic growth. Exports and foreign direct investment are the main determinants of economic growth in United Arab Emirates. Finally, there is no any evidence for short-run or long-run unidirectional or bidirectional causality relationship for Oman.
IMF Working Papers, 2015
The Middle East and Central Asia's economic growth potential is slowing faster than in other emerging and developing regions, dampening hopes for reducing persistent unemployment and improving the region's generally low living standards. Why? And is it possible to alter this course? This paper addresses these questions by estimating potential growth, examining its supply-side drivers, and assessing which of them could be most effective in raising potential growth. The analysis reveals that the region's potential growth is expected to slow by ¾ of a percentage point more than the emerging and developing countries (EMDC) average over the next five years. The reasons behind this slowdown differ across the region. Lower productivity growth drives the slowdown in the Caucasus and Central Asia and is also weighing on growth across the Middle East (MENAP); while a lower labor contribution to potential growth is the main driver in MENAP. Moving forward, given some natural constraints on labor, total factor productivity growth is key to unlocking the region's higher growth potential. For oil importers, raising physical capital accumulation through greater investment will also play an important role.
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