Stillbirths: rates, risk factors, and acceleration towards 2030

The Lancet, 2006

Background While information about 4 million neonatal deaths worldwide is limited, even less information is available for stillbirths (babies born dead in the last 12 weeks of pregnancy) and there are no published, systematic global estimates. We sought to identify available data and use these to estimate the rates and numbers of stillbirths for 190 countries for the year 2000, and provide uncertainty estimates. Methods We assessed three sources of stillbirth data according to specifi ed inclusion criteria: vital registration; demographic and health surveys (DHS), based on a new analysis of contraceptive calendar data; and study reports that include published studies identifi ed through systematic literature searches of more than 30 000 abstracts and unpublished studies. A random eff ects regression model was developed to predict national stillbirth rates and associated uncertainty intervals. Findings Data from 44 countries with vital registration (71 442 stillbirths), 30 DHS surveys from 16 countries (2989 stillbirths), and 249 study populations from 103 countries (93 023 stillbirths) met the inclusion criteria. Modelbased estimates were used for 128 countries. For 62 countries, the observed values were adjusted by a correction factor derived from the model. The resultant stillbirth rates ranged from fi ve per 1000 in rich countries to 32 per 1000 in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. The estimated number of global stillbirths is 3•2 million (uncertainty range 2•5-4•1 million). In light of the data limitations and the conservative approach taken, the real number might be higher than this. Interpretation The numbers of stillbirths are high and there is a dearth of usable data in countries and regions in which most stillbirths occur, with under-reporting being a major challenge. Although our estimates are probably underestimates, they represent a rigorous attempt to measure the numbers of babies dying during the last trimester of pregnancy. Improving stillbirth data is the fi rst step towards making stillbirths count in public-health action.

Lancet, 2011

for The Lancet's Stillbirths Series steering committee* Despite increasing attention and investment for maternal, neonatal, and child health, stillbirths remain invisible-not counted in the Millennium Development Goals, nor tracked by the UN, nor in the Global Burden of Disease metrics. At least 2·65 million stillbirths (uncertainty range 2·08 million to 3·79 million) were estimated worldwide in 2008 (≥1000 g birthweight or ≥28 weeks of gestation). 98% of stillbirths occur in low-income and middle-income countries, and numbers vary from 2·0 per 1000 total births in Finland to more than 40 per 1000 total births in Nigeria and Pakistan. Worldwide, 67% of stillbirths occur in rural families, 55% in rural sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where skilled birth attendance and caesarean sections are much lower than that for urban births. In total, an estimated 1·19 million (range 0·82 million to 1·97 million) intrapartum stillbirths occur yearly. Most intrapartum stillbirths are associated with obstetric emergencies, whereas antepartum stillbirths are associated with maternal infections and fetal growth restriction. National estimates of causes of stillbirths are scarce, and multiple (>35) classifi cation systems impede international comparison. Immediate data improvements are feasible through household surveys and facility audit, and improvements in vital registration, including specifi c perinatal certifi cates and revised International

The Lancet, 2021

Background Stillbirths are a major public health issue and a sensitive marker of the quality of care around pregnancy and birth. The UN Global Strategy for Women's, Children's and Adolescents' Health (2016-30) and the Every Newborn Action Plan (led by UNICEF and WHO) call for an end to preventable stillbirths. A first step to prevent stillbirths is obtaining standardised measurement of stillbirth rates across countries. We estimated stillbirth rates and their trends for 195 countries from 2000 to 2019 and assessed progress over time. Methods For a systematic assessment, we created a dataset of 2833 country-year datapoints from 171 countries relevant to stillbirth rates, including data from registration and health information systems, household-based surveys, and population-based studies. After data quality assessment and exclusions, we used 1531 datapoints to estimate countryspecific stillbirth rates for 195 countries from 2000 to 2019 using a Bayesian hierarchical temporal sparse regression model, according to a definition of stillbirth of at least 28 weeks' gestational age. Our model combined covariates with a temporal smoothing process such that estimates were informed by data for country-periods with high quality data, while being based on covariates for country-periods with little or no data on stillbirth rates. Bias and additional uncertainty associated with observations based on alternative stillbirth definitions and source types, and observations that were subject to non-sampling errors, were included in the model. We compared the estimated stillbirth rates and trends to previously reported mortality estimates in children younger than 5 years. Findings Globally in 2019, an estimated 2•0 million babies (90% uncertainty interval [UI] 1•9-2•2) were stillborn at 28 weeks or more of gestation, with a global stillbirth rate of 13•9 stillbirths (90% UI 13•5-15•4) per 1000 total births. Stillbirth rates in 2019 varied widely across regions, from 22•8 stillbirths (19•8-27•7) per 1000 total births in west and central Africa to 2•9 (2•7-3•0) in western Europe. After west and central Africa, eastern and southern Africa and south Asia had the second and third highest stillbirth rates in 2019. The global annual rate of reduction in stillbirth rate was estimated at 2•3% (90% UI 1•7-2•7) from 2000 to 2019, which was lower than the 2•9% (2•5-3•2) annual rate of reduction in neonatal mortality rate (for neonates aged <28 days) and the 4•3% (3•8-4•7) annual rate of reduction in mortality rate among children aged 1-59 months during the same period. Based on the lower bound of the 90% UIs, 114 countries had an estimated decrease in stillbirth rate since 2000, with four countries having a decrease of at least 50•0%, 28 having a decrease of 25•0-49•9%, 50 having a decrease of 10•0-24•9%, and 32 having a decrease of less than 10•0%. For the remaining 81 countries, we found no decrease in stillbirth rate since 2000. Of these countries, 34 were in sub-Saharan Africa, 16 were in east Asia and the Pacific, and 15 were in Latin America and the Caribbean. Interpretation Progress in reducing the rate of stillbirths has been slow compared with decreases in the mortality rate of children younger than 5 years. Accelerated improvements are most needed in the regions and countries with high stillbirth rates, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Future prevention of stillbirths needs increased efforts to raise public awareness, improve data collection, assess progress, and understand public health priorities locally, all of which require investment. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the UK Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office.

Reproductive Health, 2020

Background Stillbirth rates are high and represent a substantial proportion of the under-5 mortality in low and middle-income countries (LMIC). In LMIC, where nearly 98% of stillbirths worldwide occur, few population-based studies have documented cause of stillbirths or the trends in rate of stillbirth over time. Methods We undertook a prospective, population-based multi-country research study of all pregnant women in defined geographic areas across 7 sites in low-resource settings (Kenya, Zambia, Democratic Republic of Congo, India, Pakistan, and Guatemala). Staff collected demographic and health care characteristics with outcomes obtained at delivery. Cause of stillbirth was assigned by algorithm. Results From 2010 through 2018, 573,148 women were enrolled with delivery data obtained. Of the 552,547 births that reached 500 g or 20 weeks gestation, 15,604 were stillbirths; a rate of 28.2 stillbirths per 1000 births. The stillbirth rates were 19.3 in the Guatemala site, 23.8 in the ...

2010

While under-5 mortality rates are improving in many countries worldwide, neonatal mortality rates (deaths in the fi rst 28 days of life) have shown much less progress . Neonatal deaths now account for more than 42% of under fi ve deaths ), up from 37% in the year 2000 when the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) were set . MDG 4 targets a two-thirds reduction of under-fi ve deaths between 1990 and 2015.

Lancet

Background Stillbirth is a devastating and often avoidable adverse pregnancy outcome. Monitoring stillbirth levels and trends-in a comprehensive manner that leaves no one uncounted-is imperative for continuing progress in pregnancy loss reduction. This analysis, completed as part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021, methodically accounted for different stillbirth definitions with the aim of comprehensively estimating all stillbirths at 20 weeks or longer for 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. Methods We extracted data on stillbirths from 11 412 sources across 185 of 204 countries and territories, including 234 surveys, 231 published studies, 1633 vital statistics reports, and 10 585 unique location-year combinations from vital registration systems. Our final dataset comprised 11 different definitions, which were adjusted to match two gestational age thresholds: 20 weeks or longer (reference) and 28 weeks or longer (for comparisons). We modelled the ratio of stillbirth rate to neonatal mortality rate with spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression for each location and year, and then used final GBD 2021 assessments of fertility and all-cause neonatal mortality to calculate total stillbirths. Secondary analyses evaluated the number of stillbirths missed with the more restrictive gestational age definition, trends in stillbirths as a function of Socio-demographic Index, and progress in reducing stillbirths relative to neonatal deaths. Findings In 2021, the global stillbirth rate was 23•0 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 19•7-27•2) per 1000 births (stillbirths plus livebirths) at 20 weeks' gestation or longer, compared to 16•1 (13•9-19•0) per 1000 births at 28 weeks' gestation or longer. The global neonatal mortality rate in 2021 was 17•1 (14•8-19•9) per 1000 livebirths, corresponding to 2•19 million (1•90-2•55) neonatal deaths. The estimated number of stillbirths occurring at 20 weeks' gestation or longer decreased from 5•08 million (95% UI 4•07-6•35) in 1990 to 3•04 million (2•61-3•62) in 2021, corresponding to a 39•8% (31•8-48•0) reduction, which lagged behind a global improvement in neonatal deaths of 45•6% (36•3-53•1) for the same period (down from 4•03 million [3•86-4•22] neonatal deaths in 1990). Stillbirths in south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa comprised 77•4% (2•35 million of 3•04 million) of the global total, an increase from 60•3% (3•07 million of 5•08 million) in 1990. In 2021, 0•926 million (0•792-1•10) stillbirths, corresponding to 30•5% of the global total (3•04 million), occurred between 20 weeks' gestation and 28 weeks' gestation, with substantial variation at the country level. Interpretation Despite the gradual global decline in stillbirths between 1990 and 2021, the overall number of stillbirths remains substantially high. Counting all stillbirths is paramount to progress, as nearly a third-close to 1 million in total-are left uncounted at the 28 weeks or longer threshold. Our findings draw attention to the differential progress in reducing stillbirths, with a high burden concentrated in countries with low development status. Scarce data availability and poor data quality constrain our capacity to precisely account for stillbirths in many locations. Addressing inequities in universal maternal health coverage, strengthening the quality of maternal health care, and improving the robustness of data systems are urgently needed to reduce the global burden of stillbirths. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Archives of disease in childhood, 2015

Remarkable advances have been made over the past decade in defining the burden of newborn mortality and morbidity and stillbirths, and in identifying interventions to address the major risk factors and causes of deaths. However, progress in saving newborn lives and preventing stillbirths in countries lags behind that for maternal mortality and for children aged 1-59 months. To accelerate progress, greater focus is needed on improving coverage, quality and equity of care at birth -particularly obstetric care during labour and childbirth, and care for small and sick newborns, which gives a triple return on investment, reducing maternal and newborn lives as well as stillbirths. Securing nationallevel political priority for newborn health and survival and stillbirths, and implementation of the Every Newborn Action Plan are critical to accomplishing the unfinished global agenda for newborns and stillbirths beyond 2015.

Variation in stillbirth rates across high-income countries and large equity gaps within high-income countries persist. If all high-income countries achieved stillbirth rates equal to the best performing countries, 19 439 late gestation (28 weeks or more) stillbirths could have been avoided in 2015. The proportion of unexplained stillbirths is high and can be addressed through improvements in data collection, investigation, and classification, and with a better understanding of causal pathways. Substandard care contributes to 20–30% of all stillbirths and the contribution is even higher for late gestation intrapartum stillbirths. National perinatal mortality audit programmes need to be implemented in all high-income countries. The need to reduce stigma and fatalism related to stillbirth and to improve bereavement care are also clear, persisting priorities for action. In high-income countries, a woman living under adverse socioeconomic circumstances has twice the risk of having a stillborn child when compared to her more advantaged counterparts. Programmes at community and country level need to improve health in disadvantaged families to address these inequities.

Reproductive Health, 2015

Background: Stillbirth rates remain nearly ten times higher in low-middle income countries (LMIC) than high income countries. In LMIC, where nearly 98% of stillbirths worldwide occur, few population-based studies have documented characteristics or care for mothers with stillbirths. Non-macerated stillbirths, those occurring around delivery, are generally considered preventable with appropriate obstetric care. Methods: We undertook a prospective, population-based observational study of all pregnant women in defined geographic areas across 7 sites in low-resource settings (Kenya, Zambia, India, Pakistan, Guatemala and Argentina). Staff collected demographic and health care characteristics with outcomes obtained at delivery. Results: From 2010 through 2013, 269,614 enrolled women had 272,089 births, including 7,865 stillbirths. The overall stillbirth rate was 28.9/1000 births, ranging from 13.6/1000 births in Argentina to 56.5/1000 births in Pakistan. Stillbirth rates were stable or declined in 6 of the 7 sites from 2010-2013, only increasing in Pakistan. Less educated, older and women with less access to antenatal care were at increased risk of stillbirth. Furthermore, women not delivered by a skilled attendant were more likely to have a stillbirth (RR 2.8, 95% CI 2.2, 3.5). Compared to live births, stillbirths were more likely to be preterm (RR 12.4, 95% CI 11.2, 13.6). Infants with major congenital anomalies were at increased risk of stillbirth (RR 9.1, 95% CI 7.3, 11.4), as were multiple gestations (RR 2.8, 95% CI 2.4, 3.2) and breech (RR 3.0, 95% CI 2.6, 3.5). Altogether, 67.4% of the stillbirths were non-macerated. 7.6% of women with stillbirths had cesarean sections, with obstructed labor the primary indication (36.9%). Conclusions: Stillbirth rates were high, but with reductions in most sites during the study period. Disadvantaged women, those with less antenatal care and those delivered without a skilled birth attendant were at increased risk of delivering a stillbirth. More than two-thirds of all stillbirths were non-macerated, suggesting potentially preventable stillbirth. Additionally, 8% of women with stillbirths were delivered by cesarean section. The relatively high rate of cesarean section among those with stillbirths suggested that this care was too late or not of quality to prevent the stillbirth; however, further research is needed to evaluate the quality of obstetric care, including cesarean section, on stillbirth in these low resource settings. Study registration: Clinicaltrials.gov (ID# NCT01073475)

Lancet, 2011

Background Stillbirths do not count in routine worldwide data-collating systems or for the Millennium Development Goals. Two sets of national stillbirth estimates for 2000 produced similar worldwide totals of 3·2 million and 3·3 million, but rates diff ered substantially for some countries. We aimed to develop more reliable estimates and a time series from 1995 for 193 countries, by increasing input data, using recent data, and applying improved modelling approaches.