Transition Management for Sustainable Personal Mobility

2010

The transition toward a sustainable transportation system in the Netherlands takes place in the context of the Dutch "Transition management policy framework". We study four technological routes that the "Platform Sustainable Mobility" has selected for this goal: (1) hybridization of vehicles, (2) liquid biofuels, (3) natural gas as a transportation fuel and (4) hydrogen as a transportation fuel. These technological routes all envision large-scale changes in vehicle propulsion technology and fuel infrastructure. Furthermore, they compete for the scarce resources available to invest in new (fuel) infrastructures, which implicates that these 'transition paths' are also interdependent at the level of the mobility system. The main outcome of the analysis is the identification of barriers that are currently blocking the transition toward sustainable mobility. Barriers are classified as being related to (1) technology and vehicle development, (2) the availability of (fuel) infrastructures, and (3) elements of the institutional infrastructure. The transition management framework currently misses guidelines for coping with (competing) technologies that each requires large infrastructural investments. We further argue that avoiding undesired lock-ins and creating a beneficial institutional context for sustainable mobility cannot be pursued at the transition path level. Therefore, we recommend that a more systemic approach should be taken to the transition to sustainable mobility, in which the interdependencies between the transition paths are critically assessed and in which the possibilities to legitimize sustainable mobility as a whole should be used.

Ecological Economics, 2009

This paper reports on the development of a model for assessing transitions to sustainable mobility. The model uses the concepts of transition theory as a framework for assessing possible pathways by which a transition to a sustainable mobility society might happen. The modelling approach combines agent-based modelling techniques with a system dynamics structure. It is original in that there are two levels of agent.

Journal of Cleaner Production, 2007

This paper addresses a persistent and worsening societal dilemma worldwide: the ecological unsustainability of the automobile as the primary means for providing personal mobility. The solution to this problem will require input from all segments of society, and must include technological innovation, changes in the physical infrastructure and land use, and social, cultural, and institutional changes. A fundamental rethinking of the entire system of personal mobility is necessary. Governments can play a significant role in promoting change: by stimulating technological innovation through regulations, incentives and subsidies, by investing in the infrastructure, by providing leadership, and by organizing and supporting a debate with a focus on the system as a whole: its spatial characteristics, the motives for transport, and the alternatives that are presently not developed. From the technological perspective, one of the much-discussed solutions is a hydrogen-powered automobile. We argue that the future of this approach is questionable, and propose a fundamental re-framing of the significance of hydrogen: from viewing it as a solution to the personal mobility problem to seeing it as a medium for transporting and storing energy that has been generated elsewhere (preferably by renewable resources). A new and radically different way of seeing the problem of individual mobility, and of the roles of various stakeholders in finding solutions, is also necessary. This is the essence of higher order learning. To facilitate such learning among various societal groups, we advocate a combination of multi-stakeholder visioning processes, scenario building, backcasting exercises, and small-scale socio-technical experiments. These approaches may be practiced at various levels, from local to national, with experimentation probably being best suited for a smaller scale. An ongoing process of visioning future mobility in the Boston Metropolitan area illustrates how such approaches may be used.

INNOVATION: management, policy & practice, 2004

This paper proposes a method for the ex ante evaluation of technological trajectories. As a case we study the Dutch transport energy system and its transition to climate neutrality. Two technological trajectories are proposed:(i) a sequence of transition steps based on radical infrastructural change, and (ii) a sequence of steps oriented towards incremental innovation on the side of the vehicle. The system is approached from a multi-actor perspective, taking into account the multiplicity of views and interests of actors involved. Based on interviews ...

Innovation: Management, Policy & Practice, 2004

Assessing transition trajectories towards a sustainable energy system: A case study on the Dutch transition to climate-neutral transport fuel chains SUMMARY This paper proposes a method for the ex ante evaluation of technological trajectories. As a case we study the Dutch transport energy system and its transition to climate neutrality. Two technological trajectories are proposed: (i) a sequence of transition steps based on radical infrastructural change, and (ii) a sequence of steps oriented towards incremental innovation on the side of the vehicle. The system is approached from a multi-actor perspective, taking into account the multiplicity of views and interests of actors involved. Based on interviews a quick scan is made in terms of their Willingness to Participate (WTP). We find that on long term goals, a positive WTP and a high degree of consent are the case. For the short term the opposite is found. Management should therefore be directed at facilitating short term innovations: in the case of an incremental strategy, by stimulating market development; and in case of a radical strategy, by providing finance and institutional legitimation.

Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment, 2018

Low-carbon mobility alternatives, such as shared services integrating light electric vehicles, support transitions to sustainable transport systems. However, new products and services are not enough, as changes must also incorporate the practices of travelling, infrastructure, and mobility cultures in which users of mobility solutions are core stakeholders. This paper argues that user involvement is necessary in sustainable innovation processes but that the expected diversity of user roles and their involvement can also lead to contrasting outcomes for sustainable innovation transitions. Guided by theory in user involvement, this study investigated users and nonusers of light electric vehicles in a sharing mobility service system set up as living lab in two large workplaces in Sweden. Fifty-one interviews with employees at the workplaces were conducted during the implementation process and analysed combined with a questionnaire and data from system tracking through sensor technology. The paper finds that both users and non-users are cocreators in building momentum for sustainable mobility alternatives and provides a spectrum of user roles with defined characteristics. Four roles are distinguished within this spectrum: vigilant users, passive collaborators, active decision makers and ambassadors. We suggest that a convergent activation strategy is deployed for involving a full spectrum of users in order to capture their insights in ways that positively affect transition. Such a strategy addresses users and non-users as part of decision-making concerning alternatives and cultivates a culture of user collaboration, while also enabling a plurality of contributions in order to challenge existing regimes and established practices among individuals.

World Electric Vehicle Journal

We address the value of engaging stakeholders in energy and mobility transitions by using models. As a communication medium, models can facilitate the collaborative exploration of a future between modeling researchers and stakeholders. Developing models to engage stakeholders requires an understanding of state-of-the-art models and the usability of models from the stakeholder perspective. We employ mixed methods in our research. We present the overview of models that have been proposed to make sense of the transitions in the scientific literature through a systematic literature mapping (n = 105). We interviewed 10 stakeholders based in The Netherlands to elaborate on use cases in which models can benefit stakeholders in practice and the characteristics of usable models. We conclude our research by elaborating on two challenges of model design that modeling research can consider to engage stakeholders. First, we argue that understanding the epistemic requirements of both modeling res...

Sustainability, 2013

The reduction of CO 2 emissions associated with vehicle use is an important element of a global transition to sustainable mobility and is a major long-term challenge for society. Vehicle and fuel technologies are part of a global energy system, and assessing the impact of the availability of clean energy technologies and advanced vehicle technologies on sustainable mobility is a complex task. The global energy transition (GET) model accounts for interactions between the different energy sectors, and we illustrate its use to inform vehicle technology choices in a decarbonizing economy. The aim of this study is to assess how uncertainties in future vehicle technology cost, as well as how developments in other energy sectors, affect cost-effective fuel and vehicle technology choices. Given the uncertainties in future costs and efficiencies for light-duty vehicle and fuel technologies, there is no clear fuel/vehicle technology winner that can be discerned at the present time. We conclude that a portfolio approach with research and development of multiple fuel and vehicle technology pathways is the best way forward to achieve the desired result of affordable and sustainable personal mobility. The practical ramifications of this analysis are illustrated in the portfolio approach to providing sustainable mobility adopted by the Ford Motor Company.

In the transition towards sustainable energy and transport systems the development and up-scaling of niche experiments plays a decisive role. The problems of the incumbent fossil-based socio-technical regime increase possibilities for niche development, but this is not sufficient to succeed. Following processes have been highlighted in the transition literature as decisive for successful niche development: facilitating learning processes, the formation of broad and aligned networks and institutional embedding, voicing and shaping of expectations and visions, and the development of complementary technologies and infrastructures (Hoogma, et al., 2002:30; Raven, 2005). We concentrate here especially on the formation of broad and aligned networks and involvement of users, both industrial users and customers and analyse public funded demonstration and trial projects as one type of niche experiments for facilitating niche development. This paper gives first results of an analysis of effec...

Sustainability, 2011

Since the 1980s sustainability has clearly become the challenge of the 21st century. In a process toward a sustainable society it is crucial that different stakeholders start collaboration and exchange ideas with technicians and academics. To finalize the policy decisions on important issues such as energy sustainability, collaboration between policy makers, academia and the private sector is important. This work intends to give Italian policy makers concrete advice and solutions to develop energy systems for mobility. The analysis proceeds from the context of Sustainability Science, a new science, which has emerged as one of the most important disciplines of international scientific research. Using a new approach, trans-disciplinary and integrated, this research is oriented to study and understand the complexity of the interactions between economy, society and nature. This broad approach permits proposing concrete solutions to complex problems locally and globally. We propose a scheme of definition of Sustainability Energy, defining five pillars of reference, and we redefine the energy systems for mobility in the context of Sustainability Science. In this paper, we start from the idea that we are living in a crucial passage, we are moving from the era of petroleum to the era of energy vectors. Energy systems, including mobility, should be redefined within this new approach.