Computational Economic Modeling of Migration

Proceedings of The National Academy of Sciences, 1999

We specify a set of equations defining a dynamic model of international migration and estimate its parameters by using data specially collected in Mexico. We then used it to project the a hypothetical Mexican community population forward in time. Beginning with a stable population of 10,000 people, we project ahead 50 years under three different assumptions: no international migration; constant probabilities of in- and out-migration, and dynamic schedules of out- and in-migration that change as migratory experience accumulates. This exercise represents an attempt to model the self-feeding character of international migration noted by prior observers and theorists. Our model quantifies the mechanisms of cumulative causation predicted by social capital theory and illustrates the shortcomings of standard projection methodologies. The failure to model dynamically changing migration schedules yields a 5% overstatement of the projected size of the Mexican population after 50 years, an 11% understatement of the total number of U.S. migrants, a 15% understatement of the prevalence of U.S. migratory experience in the Mexican population, and an 85% understatement of the size of the Mexican population living in the United States.

IEEE SpringS, 2020

Migration to the United States (U.S.) has been an ongoing topic in the political discourse. In the specific case of migration using the United States-Mexico border, it is difficult to understand the patterns and uncertainty that comes from trying to capture the behavior of individuals and groups. Migrants using the U.S.-Mexico border present features and migration patterns that are unique, particularly in the case of group migrations, structured social networks, and caravans that travel towards the border together. We build an agent-based model (ABM) that simulates migrant decision-making of which border to choose, to test the effects of social influence on an agent's migration strategy, as well as the effects of policy changes on migrant behavior. Deciphering these emerging patterns of migration and social phenomena can help provide researchers and policymakers with an added dimension of knowledge on how to better utilize resources at the U.S. ports of entry.

2008

In this paper we analyze the demographic factors that influence the migration dynamics of recent immigrants to The Netherlands. We show how we can allow for both permanent and temporary migrants. Based on data from Statistics Netherlands we analyze both the departure and the return from abroad for recent non-Dutch immigrants to The Netherlands. Results disclose differences among migrants by

Analisis Economico Num 54 Vol Xxiii, 2014

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2005

In this paper we analyze the demographic factors that influence the return and repeated migration of immigrants. Using longitudinal data from Statistics Netherlands we track migration histories of recent immigrants to The Netherlands and analyze which migrants will stay in the country, which migrants are more prone to leave and how quick they leave. In order to identify these migrants we apply a mover-stayer duration model on the time spent in the country. We also analyze the return from abroad to The Netherlands of these migrants. Results disclose differences among migrants by migration motive and by country of origin and lend support to our analytical framework. Combining the model for departure from the country and the model for returning to the country provides the long-run stay probability of a specific migrant. It also yields a framework for simulating the life-cycle migration dynamics. The major findings are: (1) labor migrants and students are more prone to leave and migrants who come for family reasons remain in the country more often, (2) migrants from the 'guestworker' countries, Turkey and Morocco, will stay in the country more often than migrants from Western countries.

IFAC-PapersOnLine, 2018

In this paper we present a model description of the impact of labor migration on the development of economic systems in countries of migration attraction. It should be emphasized that labor migration is one of the major factors in the development of the labor market. The inflow of migrants into a region should correspond to the labor resources demand of the labor market. To estimate and predict the migration flows between countries with different level of socioeconomic development we elaborated a dynamic multi-factor model, which is based on the assumptions of the positional games theory and allows to predict the behavior of each individual, depending on economic factors. According to the model idea, potential migrants have the information on the difference of living and working conditions in both countries of origin and migration attraction. This model takes into account several economic theories of migration and describes the migrant's behavior in terms of migration barriers absence. At the final step of modeling we provide an assessment of migration impact on the development of socioeconomic systems in the countries of migration attraction using an approach, which is based on a production function of Cobb-Douglas type.

Journal of Economics, 2008

This paper look at why most migration flows include observable jumps, a phenomenon that is in line with migration irreversibility. We have presented a real option model where the migration choice depends on both the wage differential between the host country and the country of origin, and on the probability of full integration into the host country. The optimal migration decision of an individual consists of waiting to migrate in a (coordinated) mass of individuals. The size of the migration flow depends on the behavioural characteristics of the ethnic groups: the more "sociable" they are, the larger the wave and the lower the wage differential required. The second part of the paper is devoted to calibrating the model and simulating migration flows into Italy over the last decade. The calibration can replicate the migration jumps in the short term. In particular, the calibrated model is able to project the induced labour demand elasticity level of the host country and the behavioural rationale of the migrants.

This work analyzes the effects of a simulated outflow of migrants and their consequent integration in hosting countries. A core aspect relies on the remarkable difference between migrants and refugees, the different reasons that prompt them to flee their countries and the different aspects of their stay, either temporary or permanent, in host countries.

2016

Methodological and empirical literature offers several possibilities how to model migration flows. The main goal of this paper is to compare two different specifications of spatial econometric models of migration flows (spatial error model and first-order spatial autoregressive model) employing three different ways of handling the intraregional flows (setting them to zero; eliminating them; adding a separate intercept term for these observations as well as a set of explanatory variables). Our empirical analysis is based on internal migration flows among the Slovak districts (territorial level LAU-1) using 2009-2013 data. The results suggest that different models offer similar estimates, however few differences can be observed.

Mediterranean Journal of Social Sciences, 2015

Our paper focuses on the formation and existence of migration networks in the OECD countries. Immigrant networks, or spatial concentration of immigrants from the same region, can be observed in many countries that are net receiver of migration flows. We construct an econometric model for checking for dependency between the number of recent immigrants and the stocks of foreign population at a given country; this is tested against the alternative hypothesis of the dominating influence of economic factors on migration. Using the data from selected OECD countries we find an empirical verification of immigrants' networking both for the whole volume of foreign immigrants' inflow and by selected nationalities. Our conclusions show that migration networks exist and are abundant in migration communities in various countries worldwide.

2017

Migration has always been a fundamental component of human history. During last decades several researchers have derived models for predicting mass migrations. This paper critically reviews the theories and models qualitative structural and mathematical modelling of migration. It analyses the institutional causes of migration at the origin and the impacts of migration on destination. Migration as a consequence of climate change is also considered and modelled. Comparisons of different modelling processes provide a better understanding of migration modelling itself and the subsequent synthesis of models and variables show the differences and complementarities. The critical analysis conducted will greatly facilitate development of new more comprehensive models for migration in the future.

International Handbook on the Economics of Migration, 2013

The Economics of Circular Migration * Circular migration receives increasing attention due to its empirical relevance and as a policy concept to manage labor flows. This review discusses the advantages and disadvantages of circular movements for all parties. It studies the characteristics of circular movers worldwide and investigates the consequences of restrictive migration policies. Recent policy initiatives that aim to manage circular labor movement are also analyzed.

2017

The proposed migration model of workers considers migration as a multifactorial and multidimensional phenomenon. Multifactorial because it considers economic and socio-demographic aspects in the decision to migrate in the two regions concerned by migration (origin and destination), and multidimensional because it integrates micro and macroeconomic analysis levels according to their economic, social and political dimensions.We use an agent-based model (ABM) that allows us to consider several parameters simultaneously unlike conventional methods. It also offers the opportunity to study the interactions at the micro economic level and simulate the emerging macroeconomic behavior. ABM also facilates testing multiple configurations of the studied process quickly, unlake intuitively or analytically methods.Two types of agents are considered: regions and individuals. Their behavior is controlled by a set of evolution’s rules and constraints and is formulated by mathematical equations.

2011

Sociodemographic studies on human migration phenomena are mostly based on surveys and censuses, which significantly increases the research costs. This scenario becomes even worse when the study involves migration and social networks, which often lacks on representative data and consensually accepted concepts by demographers and sociologists. In this paper we propose a new multi-evolutionary agent model dedicated to social simulations, mainly for those problems where higher order dynamic behaviors (e.g. secondary emergent phenomena) are important to the investigated phenomenon. Its usefulness lies on its multilevel evolutionary adaptability which enables it to capture multiple parallel phenomena. To verify our hypothesis we applied the model to Brazilian internal human migration phenomenon and to the influence of social networks on migration flows. This is followed by a comparative analysis against simulations carried out based on a non-evolutionary cognitive agent model. Results show that the proposed model was able to rise secondary migration-related phenomena such as countermigration flows. Experiments with the cognitive agent also produced the emergence of migration flows but no secondary phenomenon was observed which was the case with our approach. Furthermore, results also pointed out a significant influence exerted by information exchange inside social networks on migration flows.

International Migration, 2019

This article shows that the threshold model appropriately analysed can explain the emigration process as a consequence of the network features, where the willingness to emigrate depends on the personal and household conditions borne by the emigrant. In such a case, the emigration process can be defined in terms of a P olya schema, and the emigration rate converges almost surely to a random variable with a beta distribution, which fully characterizes the network (assimilation, integration, separation or marginalization). The model is applied to Ecuador, which has experienced an unprecedented wave of emigration since 1998. We show that, despite the massive exodus, the process does not constitute a diaspora, because Ecuadorians do not interact appropriately with natives.