Macroeconometric modelling for policy

Eur J Polit Econ, 1990

Firenze University Press eBooks, 2013

INFORUM models. A multiregional model for Italy (MRIO) has been developed also in the work by Cherubini and Paniccià, MRIO). Important methodological improvements in this work concern the multiregional trade flows estimate procedure, thanks to the availability of unique survey data produced by Banca d'Italia. The model is used to investigate changes of the Italian economic and productive structure at a sub-national level in the 1995-2006 period, with a special focus on the role of spatial interdependencies among regions in the transmission of shocks. Two specific issues are studied by the remaining papers of this session. Werling and Horst investigate the effects of defense spending cuts on the US economy using the LIFT model. The analysis is conducted to determine the economic and employment impacts of specific alternative scenarios for federal defense spending cuts from 2012 to 2022 considering the effects on the U.S. economy as a whole, on the industrial composition of the country, and the effects on each state. Finally, a medium term forecast of the Russian economy is developed by Baranov, Gilmundinov, Pavlov and

2014

This paper provides a selective survey of the panel macroeconometric techniques that focus on controlling the impact of “unobserved heterogeneity” across individuals and over time to obtain valid inference for “structures” that are common across individuals and over time. We consider issues of (i) estimating vector autoregressive models; (ii) testing of unit root or cointegration; (iii) statistical inference for dynamic simultaneous equations models; (iv) policy evaluation; and (v) aggregation and prediction.

2000

The policy implications of estimated macro-econometric systems depend on the formulations of their equations, the methodology of empirical model selection and evaluation, the techniques of pol- icy analysis, and their forecast performance. Drawing on recent results in the theory of forecasting, we question the role of 'rational expectations'; criticize a common approach to testing economic theories; show that impulse-response methods

Research Papers in Economics, 2015

We analyse model choices of various international institutions and find that the majority of the studied central banks have chosen so-called DSGE-models. Ministry of finances have chosen to continue using so-called Semi-Structural Models (SSM) while international organisations such as the IMF and the OECD have “a suite of models” including both DSGE and SSM. Based on these international experiences and the specific institutional set up in Sweden we list a number of criteria and rank different modelling strategies. We propose that a DSGE-model for both forecast and policy analysis including a rich modelling of fiscal policy would be appropriate for the Ministry of finance and the National Institute of Economic Research in Sweden.

Journal of Applied Thought, 2018

The book comprised of six parts and a total of twelve chapters. Part I, “Introduction to Dynamic Stochastic and General Equilibrium (DSGE) Modelling,” set the underlying foundation of the basics of three key agents in DSGE formulation, namely, the Households, Firms and Government, while also acknowledging the important role policy-oriented agents like Central Bank and the External sector play in understanding the complex operations of macroeconomic models to economic realities.

Metroeconomica, 2017

We propose a simple macro-dynamic model to rethink standard policy prescriptions. Our model includes exogenous growth, endogenous capital accumulation and debt, demand-driven production with a non-linear IS curve, a dynamic Phillips curve, and fiscal and monetary policy instruments. It has multiple steady states with different stability properties, and it is analytically tractable to a significant extent. We complete the analytical results with simulations. We find alternative growth patterns, endogenous fluctuations, and demand-driven level effects even in the long-run. For certain steady states the model shows saddle-path type instabilities, which lead us to reflect on fiscal and monetary policy standards.

Macroeconomic Modelling of R&D and Innovation Policies, 2021

This chapter discusses the Proceedings of the JRC-IEA Roundtable, which objective was to promote a technical debate on the recent developments of DSGE and alternative modelling strategies, the main mechanisms at play and their effectiveness in assessing the impact of R&D and innovation policies. Leading academics presented state-of-the-art macroeconomic models in the area of economic growth and innovation. It follows a debate between academics and practitioners trying to figure out the key elements of a macro model designed to evaluate innovation policies should include.

CESifo Economic Studies, 2006

This article discusses the evolution of dynamic macroeconomic models from calibrated Real Business Cycle models to estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium models. The purpose is to suggest the usefulness of these models as a tool for policy analysis, with a particular emphasis on aspects of monetary policy. (JEL classification: D58, E50)