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2001, Abstract of the International …
This study aims to reproduce the tsunami that occurred 1100 years ago in Puget Sound reported by recent paleoseismological studies, using a finite difference model based on nonlinear shallow water theory. The study refines the estimates of run-up height, flow depth, and current velocity at these sites made by Moore (1993) and Dinkelman and Holmes (1993), using a high-resolution model that explicitly allows for coastal flooding and drying. The model is also used to estimate the spatial patterns of tsunami propagation and coastal inundation throughout Puget Sound for this earthquake scenario. When combined with existing field observations of paleotsunamis and ground movement, the simulations will help to constrain the earthquake mechanism. They will also help guide the search for additional geological evidence of this event.
Geophysical Research Letters, 2002
Recent paleoseismic and geologic studies indicate that a tsunami occurred 1100 years ago in Puget Sound. This study aims to reproduce and validate the model tsunami, using a finite difference model based on nonlinear shallow water theory and abathymetry/topography computational grid that takes into account the 1-meter rise in sea level that has occurred in the region during the past 1100 years. Estimates of tsunami height, the extent of inundation, and the current velocity pattern are provided at the northern head of Cultus Bay, Whidbey Island, where paleotsunami sand deposits have been found. The model demonstrates that a tsunami generated when the background water level was at mean high water or above could have surged across the then-existing coastal marsh, penetrated the full length of the shallow bay, and deposited the observed sand layers.
Natural Hazards, 2012
Coastal communities in the western U.S. face risks of inundation by distant tsunamis that travel across the Pacific Ocean as well as local tsunamis produced by great (M >8) earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone. In 1964 the M 9.2 Alaska earthquake generated a distant tsunami that flooded Cannon Beach, a small community (population 1640) in northwestern Oregon, causing over $230,000 in damages. However, in the wake of the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami, renewed concern about the potential impacts of a local Cascadia tsunami, has motivated a need for closer examination of the hazard. This study applies a simple sediment transport model to reconstruct the flow speed of the most recent Cascadia tsunami that flooded the region in 1700 using the thickness and grain size of sand layers deposited by the waves. Sand sheets recording the 1700 tsunami were sampled in the field and analyzed in the laboratory to produce model inputs. TsuSedMod calculates tsunami flow speed from the shear velocity required to suspend the quantity and grain size distribution of the observed sand layers. The model assumes a steady, spatially uniform tsunami flow and that sand deposits form from sediment falling out of suspension when the flow stops. Assuming sensitivity analyses test the appropriate parameter values found in nature, flow speeds estimated for the 1700 tsunami range from about 5 to 9 m/s. Using flow depths constrained by tsunami simulations for Cannon Beach, the sediment model calculated flow speeds of 6.5 to 7.6 m/s for sites within ~0.3 km of the beach and higher flow speeds (7.4 to 8.8 m/s) for sites 0.6 to 1.2 km inland. The higher flow speeds calculated for the two sites furthest landward contrast with much lower maximum velocities (<3.8 m/s) predicted by the simulations. Grain size distributions of sand layers from the most distal sites are inconsistent with deposition from sediment falling out of suspension. We infer that rapid deceleration in tsunami flow caused convergences in sediment transport and, therefore, the higher flow speeds calculated by the sediment model may overestimate the actual wave velocity. Key recommendations for future research include investigations focusing on sites with low-relief and simple geography and multidisciplinary studies that couple tsunami sediment models with inundation models to more accurately estimate flow parameters from tsunami deposits.
2008
ABSTRACT Coastal communities in the western US face risks of inundation by distant tsunamis that travel across the Pacific Ocean as well as local tsunamis produced by great (M> 8) earthquakes on the Cascadia subduction zone. In 1964 the M 9.2 Alaska earthquake generated a distant tsunami that flooded Cannon Beach, a small community (population 1640) in northwestern Oregon, causing over $230,000 in damages.
Quaternary Research, 2000
Four muddy sand sheets occur within a tidal marsh peat at Swantown on the west coast of Whidbey Island, Washington. The two largest sand sheets pinch out about 100 m inland and became thinner and finer-grained landward. All four sand sheets contain marine microfossils and have internal stratification. They record repeated inundation of the marsh over a short time period by distinct pulses of sediment-laden ocean water, consistent with deposition by a tsunami wave train. The layers have been radiocarbon-dated to 1160–1350, 1400–1700, 1810–2060, and 1830–2120 cal yr B.P. The overlap in age between the two youngest layers and inferred great earthquake events at the Cascadia plate boundary, some 250 km to the west, suggests they were emplaced by tsunamis from this source area. The two older layers do not correlate with plate-boundary events. They may be products of tsunamis caused by earthquakes on local faults in the Strait of Juan de Fuca or by submarine landslides in this area.
Open-File Report, 2014
A statewide assessment for geological evidence of tsunamis, primarily from distant-source events, found tsunami deposits at several locations, though evidence was absent at most locations evaluated. Several historical distant-source tsunamis, including the 1946 Aleutian, 1960 Chile, and 1964 Alaska events, caused inundation along portions of the northern and central California coast. Recent numerical tsunami modeling results identify the eastern Aleutian Islands subduction zone as the "worstcase" distant-source region, with the potential for causing tsunami runups of 7-10 m in northern and central California and 3-4 m in southern California. These model results, along with a review of historical topographic maps and past geotechnical evaluations, guided site selection for tsunami deposit surveys. A reconnaissance of 20 coastal marshlands was performed through site visits and coring of shallow surface sediments to determine if evidence for past tsunamis existed. Although conclusive evidence of tsunami deposits was not found at most of the sites evaluated, geologic evidence consistent with tsunami inundation was found at two locations: Three marshes in the Crescent City area and Pillar Point marsh near Half Moon Bay. Potential tsunami deposits were also evaluated at the Carpinteria Salt Marsh Reserve in Santa Barbara County. In Crescent City, deposits were ascribed to tsunamis on the basis of stratigraphic architecture, particle size, and microfossil content, and they were further assigned to the 1964 Alaska and 1700 Cascadia tsunamis on the basis of dating by cesium-137 and radiocarbon methods, respectively. The 1946 tsunami sand deposit was clearly identified throughout Pillar Point marsh, and one to two other similar but highly discontinuous sand layers were present within 0.5 m of the surface. A tsunami-origin interpretation for sand layers at Carpinteria is merely consistent with graded bedding and unsupported by diatom or foraminiferal assemblages. Additional studies, including age dating, grain-size, and microfossil analyses are underway for the deposits at Crescent City, Pillar Point marsh, and Carpinteria, which may help further identify if other tsunami deposits exist at those sites. The absence of evidence for tsunamis at other sites examined should not preclude further work beyond the reconnaissance-level investigations at those locations.
Sedimentary Geology, 2010
Tsunamis are frequent events in modern marine environments but evidence of their passing in subtidal ancient epicontinental sea deposits is elusive. It has been suggested that this is due to mis-identification or poor preservation potential. Herein a numerical modelling approach is used to show that tsunami propagation in one large ancient epicontinental sea was hindered by the damping effect of shallow bathymetries and reflection, refraction and diffraction from emergent landmasses. The Imperial College Ocean Model (ICOM) is used for this study and is first validated against data from the Sumatra-Andaman Tsunami of December 2004. A palaeobathymetric dataset is then presented for the Hettangian (Lower Jurassic) Laurasian Seaway with idealised tsunami sources situated on the continental shelf and within the adjacent oceanic basin. Results show that tsunamis forced from within ocean basins adjacent to the epicontinental sea are rapidly attenuated over the continental slope and fail to propagate great distances onto the shelf. Similarly, the sedimentological effect of tsunamis forced from within the epicontinental sea is also restricted. It is concluded that tsunami deposits in ancient epicontinental seas are most likely to occur in relative proximity to the source region and this must contribute to their scarcity in the geological record.
Natural Hazards, 2013
We review geologic records of both historic and prehistoric tsunami inundations at three widely separated localities that experienced significant damage from the 1964 Alaskan tsunami along the Cascadia margin. The three localities are Port Alberni, Cannon Beach, and Crescent City, representing, respectively, the north, central, and south portions of the study area (1,000 km in length). The geologic records include anomalous sand sheets from marine surges that are hosted in supratidal peaty mud deposits. Paleotsunami sand sheets that exceed the thickness, continuity and/or extent of the 1964 historic tsunami are counted as major paleotsunami inundations. Major paleotsunamis (6-7 in number) at each locality during the last 3,000 years demonstrate mean recurrence intervals of 450-540 years, and within-cluster intervals (three events each) of 270-460 years. It has been 313 years since the last major paleotsunami from a great Cascadia earthquake in AD 1700. We compare the dated sequences of major paleotsunami inundations to the nearest regional records of coastal coseismic subsidence in Willapa Bay in the central margin, Waatch/Neah Bay in the northern margin, and Coquille in the southern margin. Similar numbers of events from both types of records suggest that the major paleotsunamis are locally derived (near-field) from ruptures of the Cascadia margin megathrust fault zone, rather than from transoceanic tsunamis (far-field) originating at other subduction zones around the Pacific Rim. Given the catastrophic hazard of the near-field Cascadia margin tsunamis, we propose a basic rule for reminding the general public of the need for selfinitiated evacuation following a great earthquake at the Cascadia margin.
2006
Measurements of recent tsunami runup and inundation from India and Thailand are compared to corresponding proxy records of paleotsunami sand deposition in the central Cascadia margin, Oregon. Runup and inundation measurements of the December 26, 2004 tsunami are reported from 10 localities each in SE India and SW Thailand. Representative flooding elevations and inundation distances are as follows for SE India; Chenai (2-3m MSL; 150 m distance), Devanaampatnam, (2-4 m MSL; 150-340 m distance) and Nagapattinam (4-5 m MSL; 800 m distance), and for SW Thailand; Kao Khaw Beach (7.2 m MSL; >500 m distance), Khaw Lak Princess (8.2 m MSL; >2000 m distance), and Nangtong (10 m MSL; >2000 m distance). Tsunami sand transport occurred in mean flow depths of 0.4-1.3 m where flooding overtopped foredunes and beach plains in the SE Indian sites. By comparison, ovetopping flows in proximal settings (100-200 m from the beach) in SW Thailand ranged from 2 to 5 m in depth. The maximum transport distances of tsunami sand, i.e., sand sheet extent, were quite variable within and between tsunami inundation localities in the SE Indian Ocean. Contiguous sand sheets were not present at some of the SE Thailand tsunami localities. Prehistoric tsunami runup in the central Cascadia margin has been estimated from tsunami sand deposits that were produced by four paleotsunami between 0.3 and 1.3 ka. The sand deposits are thought to represent minimum overtopping and inundation distances. The overtopping records come from wetlands developed on previously uplifted coastal terraces (6-8 m MSL), and in coastal plains fronted by abandoned, i.e., stabilized, dune ridges (4-8 m MSL). For this study we focus on five Cascadia localities including Cannon Beach, Rockaway, Neskowin, Salishan, and Ona in the northern Oregon coast. The ovetopping evidence yields onshore tsunami heights of at least 6-8 m MSL. Sand sheet deposition from the 1.3 ka paleotsunami at the Neskowin and Ona wetlands exceeds 1.3 km in shore-normal distance. Sand sheets from the three remaining tsunami reach 500-900 m in overland distance from the beach. The tsunami sand sheets are thought to likely
Sedimentary Geology, 2007
Tsunami deposits have been found at more than 60 sites along the Cascadia margin of Western North America, and here we review and synthesize their distribution and sedimentary characteristics based on the published record. Cascadia tsunami deposits are best preserved, and most easily identified, in low-energy coastal environments such as tidal marshes, back-barrier marshes and coastal lakes where they occur as anomalous layers of sand within peat and mud. They extend up to a kilometer inland in open coastal settings and several kilometers up river valleys. They are distinguished from other sediments by a combination of sedimentary character and stratigraphic context. Recurrence intervals range from 300-1000 years with an average of 500-600 years. The tsunami deposits have been used to help evaluate and mitigate tsunami hazards in Cascadia. They show that the Cascadia subduction zone is prone to great earthquakes that generate large tsunamis. The inclusion of tsunami deposits on inundation maps, used in conjunction with results from inundation models, allows a more accurate assessment of areas subject to tsunami inundation. The application of sediment transport models can help estimate tsunami flow velocity and wave height, parameters which are necessary to help establish evacuation routes and plan development in tsunami prone areas.
2013
We interpret two thin sand layers in the estuarine marsh at Salt Creek, on the southern shore of the Strait of Juan de Fuca, as the products of tsunamis propagated by earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone. The sand layers extend for about 60 m along the left bank of the creek about 800 m from the mouth, and can be traced to the base of a nearby upland area. One layer is exposed in the creek bank about 400 m further upstream, but they are only patchily distributed in the rest of the central area of the marsh. Both layers contain brackish-marine epipsammic diatoms. The lower sand layer marks a sharp contact between intertidal peaty mud and overlying mud, perhaps reflecting modest coseismic subsidence in association with tsunami deposition, but little or no change in the bracketing sediment occurs in association with the upper sand layer. The ages of the sand layers are not closely constrained, but were most likely deposited by tsunamis generated by great earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone about 1650 and 1300 years ago. The Cascadia great earthquake of AD1700 may have induced slight subsidence in the marsh, but no tsunami deposit was detected at the inferred contact. The absence of deposits from the marsh immediately inland of the 4 m-high barrier beach indicates that the largest tsunamis in the late Holocene at this site have not overtopped the barrier, which suggests that these tsunamis were likely only 2-3 m high.
2008
To update the tsunami hazard assessment method for Oregon, we (1) evaluate geologically reasonable variability of the earthquake rupture process on the Cascadia megathrust, (2) compare those scenarios to geological and geophysical evidence for plate locking, (3) specify 25 deterministic earthquake sources, and (4) use the resulting vertical coseismic deformations as initial conditions for simulation of Cascadia tsunami inundation at Cannon Beach, Oregon. Because of the Cannon Beach focus, the north-south extent of source scenarios is limited to Neah Bay, Washington to Florence, Oregon. We use the marine paleoseismic record to establish recurrence bins from the 10,000 year event record and select representative coseismic slips from these data. Assumed slips on the megathrust are 8.4 m (290 yrs of convergence), 15.2 m (525 years of convergence), 21.6 m (748 years of convergence), and 37.5 m (1298 years of convergence) which, if the sources were extended to the entire Cascadia margin, give Mw varying from approximately 8.3 to 9.3. Additional parameters explored by these scenarios characterize ruptures with a buried megathrust versus splay faulting, local versus regional slip patches, and seaward skewed versus symmetrical slip distribution. By assigning variable weights to the 25 source scenarios using a logic tree approach, we derived percentile inundation lines that express the confidence level (percentage) that a Cascadia tsunami will NOT exceed the line. Lines of 50, 70, 90, and 99 percent confidence correspond to maximum runup of 8.9, 10.5, 13.2, and 28.4 m (NAVD88). The tsunami source with highest logic tree weight (preferred scenario) involved rupture of a splay fault with 15.2 m slip that produced tsunami inundation near the 70 percent confidence line. Minimum inundation consistent with the inland extent of three Cascadia tsunami sand layers deposited east of Cannon Beach within the last 1000 years suggests a minimum of 15.2 m slip on buried megathrust ruptures. The largest tsunami run-up at the 99 percent isoline was from 37.5 m slip partitioned to a splay fault. This type of extreme event is considered to be very rare, perhaps once in 10,000 years based on offshore paleoseismic evidence, but it can produce waves rivaling the 2004 Indian Ocean tsunami. Cascadia coseismic deformation most similar to the Indian Ocean earthquake produced generally smaller tsunamis than at the Indian Ocean due mostly to the 1 km shallower water depth on the Cascadia margin. Inundation from distant tsunami sources was assessed by simulation of only two Mw 9.2 earthquakes in the Gulf of Alaska, a hypothetical worst-case developed by the Tsunami Pilot Study Working Group (2006) and a historical worst case, the 1964 Prince William Sound Earthquake; maximum runups were, respectively, 12.4 m and 7.5 m.
Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America, 2012
Stratigraphic evidence for coseismic uplift, a tsunami, and a sandy debris flow linked to the A.D. 900-930 Seattle-fault-zone earthquake and subsequent submergence is present at Gorst at the terminus of Sinclair Inlet, Washington. This study indicates that at least 3 m of uplift preceded a tsunami followed by a sandy debris flow. Though the Seattle and Tacoma fault zones ruptured within the error of ages of the tsunami deposit, model simulations indicate the Seattle fault generates an order of magnitude larger tsunami in the vicinity of the field area than the Tacoma fault and is the more likely generator of the tsunami. Simulations indicate amplitude from a Seattle-fault-zone-generated wave train was 4-5 m, and stratigraphy shows the tsunami left a sandy deposit. Soft-sediment deformation narrows the time window for the debris flow to the hours to months after the tsunami. Slope failure in unconsolidated glacial sands likely initiated a debris flow that surged at least 2 km down Gorst Creek valley and left a more than 40-cm-thick deposit along the creek and in the wetlands. Submergence of a Thuja plicata (western red cedar) swamp into the intertidal zone indicates at least 1.5 m of submergence in the last 1100 years. This submergence indicates uplift on nearby marine terraces associated with the Seattle fault zone was likely higher, and the A.D. 900-930 earthquake was potentially larger, than previously recognized.
Coastal Engineering 1984, 1985
2013
We interpret two thin sand layers in the estuarine marsh at Salt Creek, on the southern shore of the Strait of Juan de Fuca, as the products of tsunamis propagated by earthquakes at the Cascadia subduction zone. The sand layers extend for about 60 m along the left bank of the creek about 800 m from the mouth, and can be traced to the base of a nearby upland area. One layer is exposed in the creek bank about 400 m further upstream, but they are only patchily distributed in the rest of the central area of the marsh. Both layers contain brackish-marine epipsammic diatoms. The lower sand layer marks a sharp contact between intertidal peaty mud and overlying mud, perhaps reflecting modest coseismic subsidence in association with tsunami deposition, but little or no change in the bracketing sediment occurs in association with the upper sand layer. The ages of the sand layers are not closely constrained, but were most likely deposited by tsunamis generated by great earthquakes at the Casca...
Quaternary Science Reviews, 2008
The width of plate-boundary fault rupture at the Cascadia subduction zone, a dimension related to earthquake magnitude, remains uncertain because of the lack of quantitative information about land-level movements during past great-earthquake deformation cycles. Beneath a marsh at Alsea Bay, on the central Oregon coast, four sheets of tsunami-deposited sand blanket contacts between tidal mud and peat. Radiocarbon ages for the sheets match ages for similar evidence of regional coseismic subsidence and tsunamis during four of Cascadia's great earthquakes. Barring rapid, unrecorded postseismic uplift, reconstruction of changes in land level from core samples using diatom and foraminiferal transfer functions includes modest coseismic subsidence (0.470.2 m) during the four earthquakes. Interpretation is complicated, however, by the 30-38% of potentially unreliable transfer function values from samples with poor analogs in modern diatom and foraminiferal assemblages. Reconstructions of coseismic subsidence using good-analog samples range from 0.4670.12 to 0.0970.20 m showing greater variability than implied by sample-specific errors. From apparent high rates of land uplift following subsidence and tsunamis, we infer that postseismic rebound caused by slip on deep parts of the plate boundary and (or) viscoelastic stress relaxation in the upper plate may be almost as large as coseismic subsidence. Modest coseismic subsidence 100 km landward of the deformation front implies that plate-boundary ruptures in central Oregon were largely offshore. Ruptures may have been long and narrow during earthquakes near magnitude 9, as suggested for the AD 1700 earthquake, or of smaller and more variable dimensions and magnitudes. r
Coastal Engineering, 2018
Traditionally, the initialization of seismically generated tsunamis is done by setting the initial free surface deformation as identical to the final deformation of the sea floor. However, numerous effects are neglected through this method, in particular the dynamics of the sea floor deformation. Here, two temporal parameters characterizing the sea floor deformation are defined: the rise time t r (vertical motion) and the rupture velocity V p (horizontal motion). These parameters have already been theoretically introduced by Hammack (1973) and Todorovska and Trifunac (2001), respectively. For a simplified and schematic motion of the sea floor using simultaneously both parameters, a theoretical linear analysis developed in Le Gal et al. (2017) showed a resonance phenomenon for which the amplitude of the generated wave becomes significantly larger than the amplitude of the sea floor deformation. This phenomenon concerns deformation with small rise times and rupture velocities close to the linear long wave velocity ffiffiffiffiffi gh p. The aim of the present study is to investigate the influence of a kinematic deformation, using both parameters, during historical tsunamis with numerical nonlinear shallow water simulations. This work corroborates Le Gal et al.'s theoretical schematic analysis. For this purpose, two events are studied: the March 1947 New Zealand and the 2011 Japan tsunamis.
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