Changing Geopolitical Relationship of Pakistan and Afghanistan

What made bilateral relations deepened? Abdul Naser Noorzad, lecturer at Kabul university Afghanistan and the People's Republic of China have had good political, economic and cultural relations from the old era to today. In general, this importance is influenced by economic and political exchanges that shape relations between these two countries (Center for Strategic Studies). Considering the geopolitical situation in Afghanistan and the threats and opportunities posed by this situation, the importance of this country has increased for the People's Republic of China and a number of factors are contributing to the development of these relations. Strengthening the spirit of convergence in the region in foreign policy of both countries have been one of the important factors of the development of these relations. Today, regional cooperation for economic development and addressing the security challenges as a global crisis in the region and the world are among the most important foreign policy requirements of each country. Afghanistan has put regional cooperation at the top of its foreign policy agenda after a decade-long isolation period (1990s-2000) after the fall of the Taliban. Meanwhile, regional cooperation means the establishment of ties with the countries of the region, which is important for the region and as whole for Afghanistan. In this regard, China is undoubtedly of great importance to Afghanistan (Center for Strategic Studies). China, in its strategic and long-term perspective, sees Afghanistan as the centerpiece of Central and South Asia, and sees its security and stability as a major contributor to China's security and economic growth. One point cannot be ruled out that both countries are looking at each other in spite of friendly relations, and this is a commonplace in foreign policy of the countries.

As uncertainty regarding U.S. troop presence looms over Afghanistan's peace and reconciliation process, observers are looking at the role of other important regional players in the negotiations. So far, China's diplomatic influence has been instrumental in getting the Taliban to the negotiating table. This influence, however, is still reliant on Pakistan's leverage over the Taliban and other militant groups. As threats to China's own security from cross-border terrorism increase, it would be worthwhile to understand China's limitations in ensuring stability in Afghanistan, to set expectations right.

Vol. 2 No. 1 (2021): J. Peace Dipl. , 2021

Afghanistan has a unique geopolitical situation, which makes it important not only for Pakistan but also for many global and regional powers. Though both neighboring countries have many common interests yet their Foreign Policy relations have been dwindling over time due to historically ingrained contemporary issues. It has a profound impact on Pakistan's security and economic interests, such as the issue of smuggling and bilateral trade, as well as strategic issues, such as the Durand Line issue and elusive "strategic depth." The Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in December 1979 was a major cause of global concern and a turning point in international politics. Soviet expansionism and the subsequent war on terror after 9/11 posed a challenge to Pakistan's security, and the country emerged as a "frontline state." The paper highlights what possible benefits Pakistan can accrue through viable Foreign Policy. The situation in Afghanistan has serious consequences for Pakistan's internal and external security due to the involvement of many external actors, especially India.

Strategic competition in Afghanistan is not a new phenomenon, but is inherent in its geo-strategic position. Afghanistan derives its political significance because of its geo-strategic position i.e. it is situated at the crossroads of ancient civilisations – Indian, European, Chinese. The modern state of Afghanistan has the curse of being the battleground of intense ideological, political and military conflict between the great powers. If it was the epicentre of the 'Great Game' between the Great Britain and Russia for hegemony over Central Asia and South Asia in the second half of the 19th century; it became a decisive factor in holding reign of the US over the Soviet Union during the Cold War that ultimately led to disintegration of the Soviet Union. In addition, various global actors supported by the regional powers have endorsed non-conventional strategies like terrorism and civil wars bringing devastating impact on Afghanistan's stability. The centuries of conflict has made Afghanistan a perpetual security nightmare-an outcome of complex interplay of internal disturbances and political interference of the global and regional players. Afghanistan, often called the graveyard of empires has itself become graveyard of civilization due to decades of conflict fought to preserve geopolitical interests of the great powers. During both, the Great Game and the Cold War periods, global players pursued regional grouping to counter its nemesis. It was the regional players like Pakistan, Iran, India and Saudi Arabia that played dominant roles in shaping and securing the outcome of rivalries of the great powers. New Geopolitical Realties and China as the New Player in the Great Game New geopolitical realities are reshaping the contours of the global politics, with China behaving more aggressively and dominantly across South Asia, South East Asia and Africa. It is challenging the unilateral world the US has dominated for over two decades since the end of the Cold War. Similarly, the US is trying to reassert its hegemony over the global order. What appears from the emerging trend of political and diplomatic moves from China and the US is that a new Cold War is imminent in near the future between the two countries, introducing new security dynamics in Afghanistan. The National Security Policy and the New Defence Strategy of the US seem to be leading to a contentious US approach towards the 'revisionist' Russia and China. The impending threat is from China which has challenged its supremacy over the South China Sea and Indo-Pacific region, forcing the US to revise its policy towards China.1 At the same time Chinese growing imprint in these regions has sent mixed signals to the US and its allies. In its National Security Strategy Paper, unveiled in December 2017, the US has suggested helping South Asian nations maintain their sovereign against increasing Chinese influence in the region. In other words, it would act to keep revisionist power like China from gaining strength in the region. China is on ascendance in Afghanistan. It is fast expanding in the region. It has strengthened its ties with many Central Asian countries, and is increasing trade and commerce ties with Afghanistan. It has in the last couple of years created a crucial space for itself, which it is using for a future political solution in Afghanistan that is conducive to its economic interests. Undoubtedly, it has made its presence felt in the region as it has done in many other countries with heavy investment in infrastructure and diplomatic engagement coupled with financial guarantees.2 China remains the third largest trading partner and the largest source country of investment in Afghanistan. The bilateral trade between China and Afghanistan has crossed US$1 billion mark. China has proposed to include Afghanistan in the US$57 billion economic corridor in Pakistan, a part of Beijing's Belt and Road initiative. Afghanistan has welcomed Chinese offer to join the belt and road initiative, and china is slowly becoming reliable partner of Afghanistan.3 New Strategy, New Alignment of the Regional Players Afghanistan has always been at risk of unwelcome external influences, primarily from the opportunistic neighbouring states. No regional state is prepared to allow another to gain a preponderance of influence in Afghanistan. Moreover, each retains links to client networks that are capable of fractionalizing and incapacitating an emerging Afghanistan.4 China sees an opportunity in bringing all these countries together to form a unique front against growing India-US relationship in the region. There is formalization of relations going on among China-Pakistan-Russia-Iran on one hand, and on the other US-India-Afghanistan. Each country is crucial for the outcome of the Afghan problem, and each country has its own set of interests and its own strategies to gain maximum stronghold in the region. Pakistan is the most predatory neighbour of Afghanistan. In the last few decades, it has been a key player, and a crucial ally of the US in determining the fate of the war the US had fought against the Soviets as well as the Islamic terror groups like the Al-Qaeda, the Taliban and now the Islamic State of Khorasan. It has often been blamed for helping the international forces on one hand, and patronising the terrorist groups on the other. Pakistan has played this double game purely for the sake of gaining what it calls strategic depth in Afghanistan. The new Trump Government in the US is not happy with Pakistan's policy on Afghanistan, where it sees the country's refusal to act against Taliban insurgency as part of its larger game plan for an unstable Afghanistan. President Trump has warned Pakistan to mend its ways or else be ready to pay the price. The US administration has increased pressure on Pakistan by trying to put it on the " gray list " of the Financial Action Task Force, cutting off US$1.3 billion in aid. However, every time the US has pressurised Pakistan to act tough against the terrorists, it has played its China card. What appears from the latest developments is that Pakistan is ready to move to the China camp at the cost of American interest. Scholar Andrew Small suggests that unlike the past, China won't hesitate to defend Pakistan, if it becomes impossible to retain the status quo of the relation between the two.5 Over the long term, China would welcome estrangement in US-Pakistan ties, as it will provide it the space to unilaterally dominate Pakistan and reap benefits of its strategic location. It has traditionally sought to bolster Islamabad's capacity to serve as a hedge against India's rise.6 Iran too has made bold strategic gambit in Afghanistan. Once a very strong rival of Pakistan-based insurgent groups, it now has its own calculations to support the Taliban in Afghanistan to keep it unstable and force the international community to leave Afghanistan.7 Saudi Arabia, which has been a loyal partner of the US and Pakistan against communism, backed Taliban for long before turning away from the group.8 Russia is also pushing for its influence in the region, and is accused of supporting the Taliban.9 One thing which is common in China-Pakistan-Russia-Iran axis is that these countries want the international forces out of Afghanistan. Neither Iran nor Russia want the US in their backyard what they consider as their strategic area of influence. Similarly Pakistan has its own interest in keeping the

Since the events of 9/11, Pakistan has adopted a proactive and pragmatic approach in its foreign relations that helped the country to stage a diplomatic comeback at regional and global levels. Pakistan has been able to effectively transform the post-9/11 challenges into opportunities and as a result has become a frontline state in international efforts in the fight against terrorism. The international community has duly acknowledged Pakistan's contribution in the war against terrorism and its endeavors to create a stable regional environment by initiating processes to improve its relations with India and Afghanistan. Following the end of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan and a change in Pakistan's Afghan policy, a major hindrance in improving relations with Russia and the Central Asian states has been removed and there are strong signs of improvement in bilateral relations. With China, Pakistan is moving extensively into economic cooperation, which has been a missing dimension in their comprehensive bilateral relations. To improve relations with all the countries of the neighboring regions in a mutually beneficial manner is one of the core objectives of Pakistan's foreign policy.

Central Asia

Pakistan and Russia are in close collaboration for the last decade or so due to the changed regional and global geo-political scenarios. However understanding and respecting each other’s interests as well as convergence of Pak-Russian interests in Afghanistan and Central Asia is the main driving force behind this development which guarantee a permanent need for each other. Both Pakistan and Russia emphasised on a negotiated settlement for Afghanistan imbroglio addressing concerns of regional states. The Russia-Central Asia-South Asia integration via Afghanistan and Pakistan is in the minds of Russia and Pakistan. Russia controls the northern corridor to the contiguous areas of Afghanistan and Central Asia while Pakistan provides an outlet in the south. The close cooperation between Pakistan and Russia has also encouraged Central Asian Republics for greater interaction with Pakistan. Sino-Russian close cooperation on Central Asia and Pak-China close liaison on Afghanistan also solidi...

The Diplomat, 2016

Compared to the Cold War and immediate post-Cold War eras, China’s engagement in Afghan security issues during Afghan National Unity Government is unprecedented.

Central Asia

Afghanistan is located at the convergence of Central, Middle and South Asian regions, one of the most world prime geographical locations. Its strategic location and abundant mineral resources have always attracted international community including India. Hence Indian objectives to develop relations with Afghanistan are manifold and decades old. Indian foreign policy is devised by many factors like its bitter relations with Pakistan and its desire of access route to Central Asian Republics by limiting Pakistan’s reach that has serious implications for Pakistan. In view of its past experience, Pakistan perceives Indian extended desire to engage in Afghanistan as a deliberate strategy of using the later as a battleground to show its power and use influence against Pakistan. Terrorist incidents in Balochistan provide evidence and links with Indian RAW activities organized in Afghan areas. So, Indian intention to invest in Afghanistan for infrastructure rebuilding is not as simple as it ...

Afghanistan and India has been emerged as close affiliates after the Incumbent Karzai regime. She has helped Afghanistan in infrastructural development, institutionalizing capacity building, small development projects, assistance in food procurement, imparting training to Afghanistan’s students on scholarships. India has signed Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA) with Afghanistan in the year of 2011. All the neighbouring states and Pakistan as well have vested interests and key objectives in Afghanistan and to guard their interests and retain peace in the region. Afghanistan has been victim of regional and international hegemonic designs of Super Powers. It has great importance to outreach the Central Asian Republic States (CARS). India is trying to increase its influence in Afghanistan which is very much disturbing for Pakistan as India’s growing influence in Afghanistan is the strategic loss for Pakistan. The prevalent security dilemma has increased the mistrust between India and Pakistan. The increased influence of India in Afghanistan is rankling in the strategist’s minds of Pakistan as it debilitates the psychological advantages of Pakistan over India. The stable and tranquil Afghanistan is need of the hour for Pakistan as it is a gateway to Central Asia, South Asia and Middle East. The growing relationship of India with Afghanistan is vitiating the strategic depth paradigm of Pakistan.

International Journal of Social Science and Economic Research, 2022

The year 2021 has seen some dramatic events taking place in Afghanistan. Since the beginning of the year, the US began leaving Afghanistan. After July 01, US forces began massive evacuations from Bagram Air Base in Afghanistan. At the same time, Taliban fighters enter in to Kabul. In continuation of these events, Afghan President Ashraf Ghani fled the country. With this, the interim government of Afghanistan collapsed. Soon after that Taliban became the 'New Government' of Afghanistan. Now it controls a large part of the country. Although the evolving situation unnerved the international community, it was a moment of great geopolitical change. It opened greater space for the expansion of Chinese influence in Afghanistan. As Taliban seized Kabul, China poised to make 'big gains' in Afghanistan. If successful it may achieve a position of international supremacy. With the rise of Taliban, China has offered a greater cooperation with the 'New Government' of Afghanistan. There are well-established geoeconomic and geostrategic reasons for it. This research explains the different dimensions of Chinese geopolitics. It also explains the geoeconomic and geostrategic interests of China. The research critically evaluates the geopolitical calculations of China and its potential options in Afghanistan.

2014

This thesis will highlight the importance of Afghanistan for India and China, show that the former ‘rouge’ state plays an imperative role in the strategic calculus of Beijing and New Delhi and that influence maximization measures are entrenched within a regional scope. The core question of this thesis is: “How have China and India tried to maximize influence in Afghanistan and too which extent do their interests converge?“ Answering this question is done against the backdrop of resurging Indo-Sino rivalry. The concept of a ‘Security Dilemma’ will be introduced to show how entrenched this rivalry is. Sino-Indo engagement in Afghanistan is viewed as an epitome of broader regional dynamics as well as an amplifier of competition; if not hostility between the Elephant and the Dragon. The fragile state at the Hindu Kush is also relevant regarding the interregional level as it is viewed by India and China as an extremely important transport hub to Central Asia, which both energy hungry countries need, in order to stay their resource dependent economies. Afghanistan is entrenched within the modus operandi of the CIPA (China-India-Pakistan-Afghanistan) regional Sub-complex. The role of the actor, their interactions between each other as well as perceptions within the Sub-complex will be highlighted in this thesis.

AL-KINDI CENTER FOR RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT, 2023

In recent years, Sino-Afghan relations have seen unprecedented growth, with China actively involving itself in Afghanistan's political transformation due to its longstanding friendly ties with the country. This marks China's efforts to play a proactive role in Afghanistan. The gradual withdrawal of NATO and US forces since 2014 has prompted China to adopt a new geopolitical approach towards the region. The new phase of Afghanistan-China relations has the potential to transform China from a mere observer into a constructive and intervening force in Afghanistan. This article aims to shed light on China's new diplomatic strategy in Afghanistan by examining its characteristics and implications. It is predicated on the belief that constructive engagement with Afghanistan will yield strategic, economic, and security benefits for China, which directly impact its national security risks and economic opportunities.

Indo-Afghan Relationship and the Pakistan Conundrum, 2019

Since their independence, the two nations of India and Pakistan have been grappling for influence over their weaker neighbour, Afghanistan. It can be inferred that the relation between India and Afghanistan is not bilateral one but rather trilateral, as Pakistan has a great deal of influence over this relationship. India was the first country to sign a security pact with Afghanistan, the 2011 Strategic Partnership Agreement (SPA). This was the outcome of the strong ties that both Afghanistan and India enjoy. However, since Pakistan has always strived to maintain a weak government in Afghanistan and one that is favourable to it, the growing influence of India in Afghanistan has been a major concern for Pakistan and is suspicious of an Indian encirclement. This paper analyses the cooperation between India and Afghanistan, and the rationale behind Pakistan's opposition to such cooperation.