Measuring the socio-economic footprint of the energy transition

Energies, 2022

The Paris Climate Agreement and the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development Goals declared by the United Nations set high expectations for the countries of the world to reduce their greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to be sustainable. In order to judge the effectiveness of strategies, the evolution of carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide emissions in countries around the world has been explored based on statistical analysis of time-series data between 1990 and 2018. The empirical distributions of the variables were determined by the Kaplan–Meier method, and improvement-related utility functions have been defined based on the European Green Deal target for 2030 that aims to decrease at least 55% of GHG emissions compared to the 1990 levels. This study aims to analyze the energy transition trends at the country and sectoral levels and underline them with literature-based evidence. The transition trajectories of the countries are studied based on the percentile-based time-series analysis of the emission data. We also study the evolution of the sector-wise distributions of the emissions to assess how the development strategies of the countries contributed to climate change mitigation. Furthermore, the countries’ location on their transition trajectories is determined based on their individual Kuznets curve. Runs and Leybourne–McCabe statistical tests are also evaluated to study how systematic the changes are. Based on the proposed analysis, the main drivers of climate mitigation and evaluation and their effectiveness were identified and characterized, forming the basis for planning sectoral tasks in the coming years. The case study goes through the analysis of two counties, Sweden and Qatar. Sweden reduced their emission per capita almost by 40% since 1990, while Qatar increased their emission by 20%. Moreover, the defined improvement-related variables can highlight the highest increase and decrease in different aspects. The highest increase was reached by Equatorial Guinea, and the most significant decrease was made by Luxembourg. The integration of sustainable development goals, carbon capture, carbon credits and carbon offsets into the databases establishes a better understanding of the sectoral challenges of energy transition and strategy planning, which can be adapted to the proposed method.

Sustainability, 2023

Climate change mitigation in energy systems has experienced a remarkable evolution over the past decades. In recent years, renewable energy and energy efficiency have made significant technological and deployment advancements, spurred by policy support, technology development, and cost reduction. Despite advancements in the concepts of innovation and sustainability transition, policy mix studies face challenges in policy regarding the process of energy transition. In fact, there is a need to deepen knowledge of many relevant transition policy design dimensions in order to address unresolved questions about why policymakers choose some instruments over others in the context of an existing or desired mix, how specific policy instruments operate in a mix that has a direct impact on policy performance, and how the transition policy can be evaluated in terms of achieving the desired outcome of CO 2 reduction. In an attempt to conceptualize a policy design for energy transition, this research develops a conceptual framework consisting of a policy chain in energy transition from economic and innovation perspectives. This chain has five links, corresponding to policies supporting decarbonization, transformation, renewable energy deployment, energy saving, and CO 2 emissions. A consistency analysis of the sub-indicators using data from ten leading European countries was performed, and the reliability of four links, excluding energy saving, was confirmed. The economic and innovation perspectives of the developed framework, which are aligned with the reliability analysis of each index of the framework, answer the question posed in this paper regarding actual features in energy transition. A complete energy transition requires economic signals and a fiscal system (Link1: supportive policies of decarbonization) that are aligned with all of the policy contributions in terms of strategic investments for technology development (Link2: transformation and technological development). Energy policy schemes, including taxation, subsidization and RD&D in technology related to climate change mitigation, increase motivations for alternative energy exploitation (Link3: RE deployment), which adds to the advance actions by individuals and firms in terms of energy saving (Link4), all of which combine to result in a change in greenhouse gas emissions (Link5: CO 2 emission).

LUCA GARRAMONE, 2024

The energy transition, shifting from fossil fuels to renewable energy, is a critical global challenge with far-reaching economic, social, and environmental impacts. This paper explores how the transition contributes to economic growth through increased investments in renewable energy and job creation, as demonstrated by projections of millions of new jobs in the sector. It also highlights the social benefits, including improved public health due to reduced air pollution, as well as enhanced energy security. However, the transition presents challenges, such as the need for significant investments in infrastructure and the equitable distribution of benefits to prevent social inequalities. Technological advancements, particularly in energy storage and smart grids, are pivotal in overcoming these challenges. The paper argues that with inclusive policies and sustainable investments, the energy transition can drive global economic competitiveness and ensure a more equitable, low-carbon future. This study integrates data from authoritative sources, including the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA), World Health Organization (WHO), and Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), to underscore the significance of the energy transition in fostering sustainable development.

Global Environmental Change, 2016

Energies

The global energy sector is in a period of transition, during which time it is expected that renewable and low-carbon energy sources, such as wind and solar, will replace traditional fossil fuels, including oil, gas, and coal. The energy transition is happening not only to limit the environmental impact of fossil fuel production and consumption but also to ensure energy security, reliability, access, affordability, and sustainability. The importance of the energy transition has been amplified by recent events, notably the Russian-Ukraine conflict. Economic, financial, and trade sanctions against Russia, and in particular its oil and gas industry, have forced countries to find new suppliers in the short term, but also to investigate new and more sustainable sources to guarantee long-term energy security. Given the importance of energy, it is perhaps not unexpected that there is a considerable body of recent academic literature, particularly over the last 4–5 years, studying what indu...

Amfiteatru Economic

The energy transition is a priority for the European Union, both in terms of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and reducing its dependence on imported fossil fuels. The European Union is at the forefront of the fight against climate change caused by greenhouse gas emissions. This article presents the relationship between greenhouse gas emissions and the main factors that directly affect the growth of greenhouse gas emissions, such as GDP per capita or greenhouse gas emissions per capita in the previous period (t-1). To conduct this study, a panel data model was used with statistical data provided by EUROSTAT for the 27 Member States of the European Union for the period 2005-2020. Data processing was performed using the econometric program Eviews 8. The research results show that in developed countries, where GDP per capita is high, greenhouse gas emissions are also high. Therefore, the energy transition is a necessity, especially since these countries also have the financial resources to support it.

Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 2022

Environmental issues have become a major concern for policymakers faced with the threat of global warming. The European Climate Energy Package is an ambitious plan which drives the trajectories of European countries in three directions: reducing greenhouse gas emissions, increasing the share of renewable energy and improving energy efficiency. This article is original in that it considers the three targets together using multidimensional data analysis methods, a methodology which makes it possible to propose temporal and spatial typologies for the energy transition of European countries over the period 2000-2019. Results show evidence of a gradual transition over three sub-periods towards a more environmentally conscious economy. Four distinct types of energy transition profiles are identified, highlighting the contrasting performances of EU Members in terms of energy transition. In particular, some economically more advanced countries, namely Germany, Ireland, Belgium, Luxembourg and the Netherlands, are lagging in achieving their targets. Finally, discriminant analyses suggest that economic performance, trade performance, innovation system and policy mix design have been particularly effective in promoting energy transition over the period 2000-2019, while only innovation system helps to explain the contrasting results observed at country level over that time.

Climatic Change

The anthropogenically induced climate change is a core geopolitical challenge in the twentyfirst century, which will be decisive for the long-term global cohabitation of humans, and economic opportunities as a base for wellbeing (WBGU 2011). The energy sector is responsible for 60-70% of global greenhouse gases (IEA 2015), which sets the transformation of the energy system at the centre of any discussion on how to de-fossilize economic systems and thus minimize the carbon footprint of societies. As climate change is a global challenge, the same is true for changing the way energy systems function. Ways and means to decarbonize the energy supply are the topic of a broad range of discussions at the highest political levels and are also the topic of uncountable scientific articles. Common to most political or scientific contributions is the use of or reference to scenarios (e.g. IEA 2019). Scenarios show development options by revealing important interdependencies and their relevance. However, scenarios do not predict the future, which is often ignored in discussions. Instead, model-based econometric or techno-economic scenarios make an important contribution to science-based policy advice by pointing out alternative futures and their implications. Since past and current political as well as societal developments reveal that the shape of an energy system and its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions are the outcome of multidimensional interactions within civil society, as well as between civil society, politics, technology, and the economy (Geels 2004; Verbong and Loorbach 2012), meaningful transition scenarios require a sound consideration of the interplay between society, technology, and environment.

This dissertation offers a comprehensive methodology for engineering the sustainable energy transition (SET) on all scales. It presents the results of the first, net-energy based model that can generate global and national sustainable energy transition paths, i.e. time series of energy generation capacity installation rates for all renewable energy sources for the period 2015-2100. These paths comply by design with the greenhouse gas emissions limits put forward by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in their RCP2.6 global warming scenario (Representative Concentration Pathway with radiative forcing of +2.6W/m2), equivalent to a 66% confidence of limiting global warming to 2 degrees Celsius compared to preindustrial era (1850) levels or a long-term stable carbon dioxide concentration in the atmosphere of approximately 410 ppm, currently the accepted upper limit to avoid catastrophic change to human life on Earth. Our energy-driven results provide an alternative to existing economic, cost-based models and analyses. First, we develop a mathematical framework and a differential equation-based, recursive, numerical model for the top-down calculation of global sustainable energy transition paths, followed by a bottom-up calculation of regional and/or national paths. We create a dynamic global trade network for energy carriers ranking the countries based on their renewable resource export potential. Taking into account the extant energy trade history, we construct an influence matrix, based on which the resources are distributed each year among the countries in energy deficit. After adjusting for storage, we calculate the investment obtained through the bottom-up up model and contrast the results with the global case. Finally, we develop an interactive data visualization to facilitate the easy exploration of the simulation data. The outcome of this research can help nations plan their energy transitions well ahead – in terms of tangible renewable energy deployment targets, infrastructure expansions and energy investment rates via an easy-to-use online interface – as early action has been proven to be very critical for meeting the planetary climate target.

Energy fuels global economic activity-a crucial input to nearly all of the goods and services of the modern world. Stable, reasonably priced energy supplies are the core to sustaining and improving the living standards of billions of people. This study analyses the linkages between the energy system and the U.S. economy, focusing on the big four macroeconomic indicators-GDP, employment, welfare, and trade. Looking further into energy, this sector-especially the transition to renewable energy-is scrutinized through the loop of social and political perspective. Concentrating on socio-political acceptance-one of the major substantial drivers identifying the success of transitions between energy models-this paper provides an analysis of the socio-political parameters that attribute to the energy sector development. Another insight of this study is to capture and measure the effects of renewable energy deployment in sustainable development on the basis of climate change, environmentalism, globalization, and future developments utilizing in the US.