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Adversary Targeting of Civilian Telecommunications Infrastructure

2021, 2021 13th International Conference on Cyber Conflict

The response to the pandemic by states, organisations, and individuals in 2020 highlighted critical dependency on communications systems underpinned by cyber infrastructure. Without the benefits of connectivity, governments would have faced greater challenges governing, societies would have found it even harder to maintain cohesion, more companies would have ceased to operate altogether, and personal isolation would have been a vastly more difficult experience. And yet, it is precisely this connectivity within and between NATO states that some adversaries are preparing to attack in time of conflict, including through physical or kinetic means. Russia in particular has long invested in probing vulnerabilities of civilian internet and telecommunications infrastructure, and this programme was urgently ramped up to unprecedented levels of intensity after the seizure of Crimea in 2014 demonstrated the power of total information dominance achieved through targeting critical information assets. Besides Russia, China and a number of other states are also rapidly developing counter- space capabilities that would pose a direct threat to critical civilian communications services. This has obvious implications for crisis management even before overt state-on-state conflict. Vulnerabilities have been sought in all domains: maritime (subsea cables), space (communications satellites), land (fibre optic nodes), and online (targeting specific media sources for neutralisation). The VPNFilter malware exposed in mid-2018, in addition to its cybercrime or cyber-espionage capabilities, demonstrated the ambition to render large numbers of ordinary users in NATO countries simply unable to communicate. Recognising and responding to this emerging disruptive threat and its potential human, societal, and state impact is critical to the defence of NATO states – still more so in the case of disruption to normal life by events such as the pandemic. The threat to cyber-physical systems not ordinarily considered a military target must be recognised, and their defence and security prioritised. This paper outlines the threat and recommends a range of mitigation strategies and measures.