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Despite its limitations the power law size distribution hazard estimates offers obvious benefits. It provides a useful association between its parameters and seismic hazard related factors. The �-value correlates positively with the stiffness of the system, with rock mass and mine layout heterogeneities, with the predictability of larger events and with the influence of small events on stress transfer in the rock mass. It also gives an insight into the fundamental scaling relation between seismic potency and radiated seismic energy, logE = (�P =�E)log P + (1=�E)log (�E=�P ), where �P , �P , �E, �E are parameters of the potency, P, and the energy, E, power laws respectively. Importantly, it is simple and reasonably well understood by mine seismologists and geotechnical practitioners. Because seismic events in mines follow production it is useful to distinguish between the observed hazard, estimated in the time domain, and seismic hazard potential which, due to the intermittent nature...
2012
As for earthquakes, the sizes of seismic events induced by mining are, within a certain range, power law distributed: N (≥ R) = αR −β , where N (≥ R) is the number of events not smaller than R, as measured by seismic potency P , moment M or radiated energy E, α measures the activity rate and β is the exponent, or the β-value. We analysed different data sets of seismicity related to underground hard rock mining with differing geological structures, mining layout, extraction ratio, depth and rate of mining. The exponent β correlates positively with the stiffness of the system (the ability to resist seismic deformation with increasing stresses), i.e. the stiffer the system the higher the exponent. As mining progresses and the overall stiffness of the rock mass degrades the parameter α tends to increase and β tends to decrease. At high mining rates we observed a negative correlation between β and the fractal dimension of the hypocentres. The uncertainty or unpredictability of R, as measured by Shannon entropy, increased with decreasing β. For the three data sets analysed in this paper none of the traditional size distribution parameters, namely: α, β or P max1 = α 1/β , managed to rate seismic hazard consistently and reliably. However, all parameters incorporating volume mined, V m , rated hazard appropriately. Since the rate of rock extraction that drives the seismic rock mass response to mining varies, the most conclusive parameters to quantify seismic hazard are those incorporating volume mined. In almost all cases the data deviates from the classical power law. At the lower end of the size spectrum the observed deviations are mainly due to contamination of data with blasts or due to bad seismological processing, otherwise there is a remarkable fit down to the lowest observable event. At the high end of the scale deviations are rather the rule than the exception, and they are most frequently convex, but in some cases concave. This has serious implications for seismic hazard assessment. Therefore, we show a relation, based on the upper-truncated power law distribution, to estimate the size of the next record breaking event. This relation is a function of β, which in turn is a function of the volume of rock extracted or to be extracted.
Tectonophysics, 2008
It is well-documented that a variety of factors controlling the rockmass fracturing process in mines often results in a complexity of mining event size distribution. In such cases, the estimation of the probability functions of source size parameterizations, with the use of ...
Journal of the South African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, 2004
Rock Mechanics and Rock Engineering, 2009
The problem of mining-induced seismicity in hardrock mines has become significant as underground mines from around the world are pushing production to deeper levels. At many mines, the risk associated with large seismic events and rockburst damage must be managed to ensure the safety of mine workers and minimise production losses. In this paper, an engineering approach to seismic risk management is described. It relies on accepted risk management techniques, which principally include the identification and understanding of hazards from which risk mitigation measures can be developed. This is achieved using simple but effective analysis techniques of high resolution microseismic data.
International Journal of Rock Mechanics and Mining Sciences, 2012
The influence of the static stress transfer due to two stronger seismic events from one mine section on subsequent seismicity linked to the same section is studied. The first strong tremor was provoked by destressing blasting. The static stress transfer caused by this tremor had apparently a triggering effect for the occurrence of the second strong event. This second event occurred in less than three weeks after the first one and on the area of simultaneous enhancement of both shear and normal components of the Coulomb stress change, caused by the first event. It appears also that in the next few months the cumulative stress change due to both the events influenced significantly the location and rate of smaller subsequent events. Interestingly, contrary to the results of previous analyses, the negative Coulomb stress changes turn out to have a major role in this respect. The coseismic stress change impact even seems to prevail over the influence of time-varying stress alteration caused by advancement of the mining front. & 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved. publications on this subject are e.g. [5-9]. Recent works indicate, however, that the lack of interactions between the mining seismic events can be accepted as a first approximation only. Weglarczyk and Lasocki [10] have evidenced by means of rigorous statistical testing that parameterizations of Contents lists available at SciVerse ScienceDirect
Journal of the Southern African Institute of Mining and Metallurgy, 2009
Solid Earth Discussions, 2013
Stress redistributions around large underground excavations such as coal mines may lead to failure of the surrounding rock mass. Some of these failure processes were recorded as seismic events. In this paper the different failure processes such as rock mass failure or the reactivation of faults are delineated from the seismic records. These 5 are substantiated by rock mechanical analyses including laboratory strength tests on coal measure rocks obtained from underground drilling. Additionally, shear tests on discontinuities in coal measure rocks (slickensides in shale and rough sandstone joints) were conducted to grasp the possible variation of strength properties of faults. Numerical modeling was employed to evaluate the state of stress at the locations where 10 seismic events did occur. Abstract SED 5, 737-765, 2013 Abstract SED 5, 737-765, 2013 Abstract SED 5, 737-765, 2013 Abstract 5, 737-765, 2013 Abstract of the State of the Art of Ground Control in Longwall Mines and Mine Subsidence, AIME, Abstract SED 5, 737-765, 2013 Abstract SED 5, 737-765, 2013 Abstract SED 5, 737-765, 2013 Abstract 5, 737-765, 2013
Geophysical Journal International, 2000
We report new tests of the critical earthquake concepts performed on rockbursts in deep South African mines. We extend the concept of an optimal time and space correlation region and test it on the eight main shocks of our catalog provided by ISSI. In a first test, we use the simplest signature of criticality in terms of a power law time-to-failure formula. Notwithstanding the fact that the search for the optimal correlation size is performed with this simple power law, we find evidence both for accelerated seismicity and for the presence of logperiodic behavior with a prefered scaling factor close to 2. We then propose a new algorithm based on a space and time smoothing procedure, which is also intended to account for the finite range and time mechanical interactions between events. This new algorithm provides a much more robust and efficient construction of the optimal correlation region, which allows us the use of the logperiodic formula directly in the search process. In this preliminary work, we have only tested the new algorithm on the largest event on the catalog. The result is of remarkable good quality with a dramatic improvement in accuracy and robustness. This confirms the potential importance of logperiodic signals. Our study opens the road for an efficient implemention of a systematic testing procedure of real-time predictions.
BHM Berg- und Hüttenmännische Monatshefte, 2009
It is well known, that mining activity can result in seismic events. On the other hand, tectonic -or natural -earthquakes are able to cause distress to mine openings and open cast mines which may lead to instable situations. It will be shown, that natural earthquakes have a limited impact on underground mining operations but should not be neglected at surface operations and tunnel openings.
Ninth International Symposium on Rocbursts and Seismicity in Mines, 2017
Reliable assessment of seismic hazard plays a vital role in addressing geotechnical risk in many mines. The data quality and assessed risk can be adversely affected by bandwidth limitations of the sensors in the mine's seismic network. The influence of sensor bandwidth on the recorded waveforms is well understood and has been observed from as early as 1976 by Hanks and Johnson. Boore (1986) and Di Bona and Rovelli (1988) provide analytical formulations to describe the influence of sensor bandwidth on the calculated source parameters. In the most recent RaSiM8 conference, Mendecki (2013) revisited this work and discussed the impact on different seismic source parameters. This paper investigates the impact of bandwidth limitations on the assessment of seismic hazard. We found that this phenomenon is present in seismic mine databases. The assessment of mmax (defined as the credible next largest event) may be sensitive to bandwidth limitations. Hazard assessment methods that do not depend heavily on the assessment of mmax are less affected. Finally, for magnitude calculations depending only on the radiated seismic energy, the effect of the bandwidth limitations are less severe.
Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2001
Ð Seismic hazard analysis methods in mines are reviewed for the purpose of selecting the best technique. To achieve this goal, the most often-used hazard analysis procedure, which is based on the classical frequency-magnitude Gutenberg-Richter relation, as well as alternative procedures are investigated.
Pure and Applied Geophysics, 2019
We would like to test the concept that induced seismicity prior to relatively large mining tremor (M L [ 2.5, E [ 10 6 J) can be inferred from the cumulative Benioff strain release (BSR) as power law time-to-failure before the strong event. This study presents the application of accelerating BSR prior to a large earthquake, widely used in natural seismicity, for analysis of this phenomenon in induced seismicity. The Benioff strain release is quantified as accelerated releases of cumulative (square root sum) of seismic energy in the time series. During the study, five sequences were extracted from the seismic catalogues from two Polish hard coal mines: exhausted Bobrek Mine (data form the IS-EPOS Platform) and from a mine belonging to the Polish Mining Group. Next, a search radius was used to select precursory events and to indicate the type of processes occurring in the coal seam and its vicinity. The fitted power law of cumulative Benioff strain release showed changes of m-parameter. If the value of m was lower than 1.0, the process was regarded as an accelerating-like and if m was higher than 1.0-as a quiescence-like. The investigation of m-parameter vs. the search radius showed the general behaviour of the rock mass in the studied areas and allowed to evaluate the relationship between the critical radius and magnitude of the target event. The obtained scaling relation log(Rc) * 0.35 M L is similar to these reported by other authors who analysed natural seismicity which might suggest that the scaling relation works in a wide range of magnitudes.
Rockburst prediction started in South Africa in the early 1980's (Brink and Mountfort 1984). This paper extends the work of van Aswegen (van Aswegen 2005) who showed reasonable success in short term hazard assessment based on detection of rockmass instabilities (Mendecki 1997). We summarise the procedures in short term seismic hazard assessments as currently applied by our group. The routine analyses are based on the temporal patterns of seismicity parameters Apparent Volume (Mendecki 1993) and Energy Index (van Aswegen and Butler 1993) and have been part of the South African gold mining industry since the early 1990's. Seismic Schmidt number (Mendeck 1997) was added by 1995. Specific procedures for the routine rating of short term seismic hazard were formalised for purposes of consistency and the work turned from research to a commercial service at the turn of the century. Back analysis of actual seismic hazard ratings issued during 2008-2009 show that where seismic activit...
Proceedings of the Sixth International Symposium on Rockburst and Seismicity in Mines Proceedings
The probabilistic seismic hazard analysis (PSHA) is a standard tool to estimate possible impacts of future earthquakes. Mining induced seismicity can also be a source of strong ground motion. The strongest events from copper mines in Legnica-Glogow Copper District in Poland, though still weak in comparison to earthquakes, gave rise to peak ground acceleration as high as 0.2g and more. Differences between mining induced and natural seismic events, due to the link of the former to mining, mean, however, that the classic scheme of PSHA cannot be readily applied to induced seismicity problems. We have modified PSHA to take into account the facts that the seismic source zones in mines are transient and that the source size distribution is strongly non-linear. The final result of the analysis is a strong motion prediction related to a prescribed time period in the future. The modified PSHA is successfully applied in Poland to mitigate seismic risk posed by mining events. This paper presents the procedure and an example of its application for determining the design ground motion for a flotation wastes repository enlargement.
This paper presents a review of seismic hazard assessment methods found useful at a number of gold and platinum mines in South Africa. Long terms hazard assessments are generally based on numerical modelling of planned mine layouts. Back analyses that allow calibration through correlation with seismicity add confidence to these assessments. Combinations of quantitative and statistical seismicity parameters are proving useful for medium term (monthly) seismic hazard assessment. One particular approach yields a ‘stiffness diagram’ on which parameters relating to the loading system softnesses of seismogenic volumes or structures are plotted against parameters relating to the seismic source stiffnesses. The relative seismic hazard increases with an increase in loading system softness and seismic source stiffness. Short-term seismic hazard assessment (days) involves time history analyses of seismicity parameters for the timeous detection of unstable rockmass behaviour. A representative c...
Journal of Sustainable Mining
Mining-induced seismicity is a commonly occurring phenomenon in underground mines. This poses a greater challenge to the safety of the mining operation. This paper presents a case study of the Young-Davidson mine in northern Ontario, Canada, where seismic events of magnitude Mn 2.0+ have been observed at mining depths of 600 to 800 m below the surface. The occurrence of large seismic events at such shallow depths is the key issue of this study. A comprehensive study of the microseismic database has been conducted to discern the root causes for the unusually strong seismic activities recorded at shallow depths. The effects of mining activities in the vicinity of two dykes intersecting the orebody on the seismic response are investigated. Variation of the b-value derived from the magnitude-frequency distribution is examined, and moment tensor inversion for three large seismic events is carried out to determine the source mechanisms. It is shown from this investigation that the influence of the sill pillar is more critical, leading to high mining-induced stress and the occurrence of large events. While the findings from this research are specific to this case study, they could be used to shed light on the causes of induced seismicity at other mines with similar conditions.
Proceedings of the 8th International Symposium on Rockbursts and Seismicity in Mines, RaSiM8, 2013
The possibility of experiencing a seismic event resulting in fatalities has arguably become the most important financial risk in underground hardrock mines operating in developed countries. In the two most recent cases in Australia, the entire operation was shut down for a period well exceeding one year while the mining method had to be re-engineered in order to demonstrate to regulators that the seismic risks had been lowered to an acceptable level. The methods for mitigating seismic risk have developed significantly over the last couple of decades. The seismic risk is mitigated by reducing the seismic hazard through the implementation of sound geotechnical principals in mine design or through pre-conditioning practice, managing exposure of personnel and assets, and reducing the damage potential with dynamic resistant support. This paper reviews the risk mitigation techniques currently used in Australia, Canada and Sweden (A/C/S) with an emphasis on where and how the authors believe these techniques could be improved through future research and development.
Pure and Applied Geophysics
Back analysis for evaluation of the merits of the short-term seismic hazard indicators (precursors) used in the mines and their potential application for early warning was carried out for fourteen seismic events that potentially caused damage in Kiirunavaara Mine, Sweden, selected according to our designed criteria. Five short-term hazard indicators: Seismic Activity Rate (SAR), Cumulative Seismic Moment (CSM), Energy Index (EI), Cumulative Apparent Volume (CAV) and Seismic Apparent Stress Frequency (ASF) were tested. The behaviour of the indicators was studied using the parameters of all seismic events within a sphere around the hypocenter location of the analyzed seismic source within one month before the main (damaging) event. The size of the sphere equals the estimated radius of the analyzed seismic source (area of inelastic deformation). mXrap software (Australian Centre for Geomechanics) was used for data visualization, manipulation, analysis and extraction. The results from t...
In the present study, a method is proposed method to estimate strong ground motion from possible large events. The method was demonstrated in two ways. Firstly, the magnitude of ground motion was estimated at distances away from a vertical source. If a worst case event is assumed, the simulation can be used to calculate the resulting ground velocity as a function of the distance from the source, and the model can thus be used to assist in stope support design. In the second case, an event was simulated on a hazardous fault. The ground velocity was visualized in 3D, and this provided useful information regarding possible damage throughout the volume modelled. The above was supplemented with 3D contours of sigma 1 stress (from an elastic MAP3D model), which pointed out highly stressed areas.
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