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2011, Strategic Studies Quarterly
What is the strategic purpose of cyberpower? All too many works on cyberspace and cyberpower are focused on the technical, tactical, and operational aspects of operating in the cyber domain. These are undoubtedly important topics, but very few address the strategic purpose of cyberpower for the ends of policy. Understanding its strategic purpose is important if policy makers, senior commanders, and strategists are to make informed judgments about its use. Cyberpower does indeed have strategic purpose relevant to achieving policy objectives. This strategic purpose revolves around the ability in peace and war to manipulate perceptions of the strategic environment to one's advantage while at the same time degrading the ability of an adversary to comprehend that same environment. While it is proper to pay attention to the technological, tactical, and operational implications, challenges, and opportunities of cyberspace, this article concerns itself with its use-"the ability to use cyberspace to create advantages and influence events in all the operational environments and across the instruments of power"-for achieving the policy objectives of the nation. 1 Transforming the effects of cyberpower into policy objectives is the art and science of strategy, defined as "managing context for continuing advantage according to policy" (emphasis in original). 2 The definition provides the overall strategic impetus for the use of cyberpower. To fully understand the power of cyber, one must acknowledge the character of cyber-power and cyberspace. The linkage between strategic context, strategy, and
We are greatly indebted to them for their contributions; however, any errors are the responsibility of the authors.
At the dawn of the 21st century, “cyber” seems to have become the common prefix of every human activity expressing the tendency of people towards networking. Cyber world emerges in parallel with the real one and its dynamic is so intense that many pundits consider it to be the fifth dimension in addition to land, sea, air and space. In the so called Information era, cyberspace consisting of various networks (financial, political, social) brings closer anyone willing to take part in them regardless of their nationality, mother tongue, religious belief or race. They seem to be supranational and many analysts describe networks as virtual societies that exist even though they cannot be defined using real life terms such as land or frontiers. Every human activity ranging from finance to social interactions finds a new way to be expressed within cyberspace and so does war. In Information era, the unregulated and chaotic structure of cyberspace alters decisively the nature of war. In the digital – virtual battlefield the “fog of war” seems to reach unprecedented levels, for any actor ranging from sovereign states to non state actors, criminal organisations, hacktivists or patriotic hackers can take advantage of the anonymity of cyberspace and cause harm. This paper intends to focus on the sociopolitical aspect of cyber in order to explain why cyber attacks are likely to meet the political objectives of war. Cyber is not considered to be just a technological breakthrough. Instead, it is viewed as the next evolutionary step in world politics which offers a new cognitive means of the real life world.
Cyber seems to have created a frenzy of reactions around the world for the last five years. Digital attacks against the networks of states have been proven to be potent enough to provoke considerable harm to the security of information-dependent societies. Threats stemming not from traditional military actions (i.e. bombardment, troop invasion) but instead from malicious computer programs can kneel down the Critical Infrastructures and degrade backbone networks of states. The exposure of contemporary states to the cyberspace is considered to be Achilles heel vulnerable to any malevolent actor whose identity is difficult to be revealed. Military strategy in the cyber era is undergoing the strenuous process of being revised mainly because of the new profile that foes within the cyber dimension have. However, no matter how profound the changes are, the nature of the strategy will remain untouched. Its function for bridging military and political effects will continue to be necessary in the cyber era even though strategists should find new guiding paths among ends, means and ways.
This paper applies the existing theories of asymmetric conflict warfare to answer the question why Cyberspace Operations in dynamics of asymmetric warfare conflict can be successful. Analysing how cyberspace operation in asymmetric conflict; the assessment of the winner could not be viewed from the position of the weak or the strong. These dynamics of asymmetric conflict are compatible with the actors in cyberspace operations war whether state actors or non-state actors. Relative power and realist international relations theory state from Thucydides, "the strong do what they will, and the weak suffer what they must". In war, generally strong actors have the ability to act according to what they need, but in fact the results could be different in practice. The broad spectrum of asymmetric warfare, as Thorton states "sometimes the weak can avoid doing what they must, and the powerful cannot always do what they will". Recent cyber war cases show that state actor has a role, which certainly also has cyber power. The use of cyberspace in asymmetric conflict also makes cyber war have different expected effect. In the past Arreguin-Toft has proposed strategic interaction theory which have expected effect model for predict asymmetric conflict outcomes. In this paper, the model will developed for predict cyber war outcomes. This research will explore the influence of Cyberspace Operations to asymmetric conflict outcomes. Cyberspace Operations as part of Information Operation (IO) support in this paper identified as multiplier power, where IO has concept existed before as force multiplier. The success of Russia’s massive cyber attack on Estonia in 2007 and Georgia in 2008 are some examples of operations shown by "the strong". Even though these operations were not comprehensive, but it they could provide a systemic impact to the target states and brought successfully to the mission carried out by the attacker state. In conclusion, this paper proposes a new model from the influence of Cyberspace Operations to asymmetric conflict called FDAFirman-Dadang-Arwin model, which was developed fromon the strategic interaction theory proposed by Ivan Arreguin-Toft
Covert action is as old as political man. The subversive manipulation of others is nothing new. It has been written about since Sun Tzu and Kautilya. People and nations have always sought the use of shadowy means to influence situations and events. Covert action is and has been a staple of the state system. A dark and nefarious tool often banished to philosophical and intellectual exile, covert action is in truth an oft-used method of achieving utility that is frequently overlooked by academics. Modern scholars contend that, for utility to be achieved, activities such as war and diplomacy must be conducted transparently. Examined here is the construction of utility for a subset of covert action: cyber attacks. Cyber attacks, as a functional tool of state, have the ability to influence the space between overt diplomacy and overt war. They have been and are currently being used to influence what James D. Fearon refers to as the ex-ante bargaining range of states.2 The manipulation of the bargaining range between states to achieve a more favorable ex-ante settlement that averts the potential for overt war is not limited to cyber attacks, however. Cyber attacks are just one tool among many that has risen in prominence in recent years.
Journal of Strategic Security, 2021
Much attention has been focused on the potential consequences of cyber attacks against critical infrastructure and the use of cyber weapons as an asymmetric equalizer. However, as a capability considered to be under the larger umbrella of an information operations (IO)/information warfare (IW) campaign, how significant a weapon is cyber for the strategist in an information environment? As observed in recent IO/IW campaigns targeting U.S. elections in 2016 and 2020, lack of any discernable disruptive cyber attacks may have provided an answer to this, as a cyber power purposefully elected not to implement attacks. Instead, cyber espionage was used, and even at that, played a minor complementary role in the larger effort. This calls into question the efficacy of cyber as an instrument of IO/IW, and the true nature of its role in more strategic soft-power operations. This paper argues that cyber is at best a supportive enabler of campaigns where information is the catalyst to achieve strategic results, reducing cyber attacks as tools best used for signaling, punishment, or implemented in first strike scenarios.
Journal of Cyber Security Technology, 2020
This article is designed to outline the lack of international rules of engagement in cyberspace, and how traditional practices and laws of war are applicable to cyberwarfare and how it is not. If there are any legal implications for cyberwarfare, there are very few. Any reasonable anticipation of reprisal after an initial cyberattack by a nation-state upon another is minimum. The problem of attributing a cyberattack to a source remains an enormous challenge for cyberdiplomacy, leading to critics who do not see cyberwarfare as a standalone danger to national security. Regardless of the critics, the Department of Defense (DoD) has established cyber operations as weaponized entities in its Law of War Manual, and there are historical examples that prove cyberwarfare can act as a dangerous weapon against critical infrastructure and exposed populations. If there continues to be a deficiency of understanding on the part of essential decisionmakers regarding the nature of cyberspace in policy, and a sustained escalation of nation-state on nation-state cyberattacks, without proper rules of engagement in this space with universal axioms of proportionality, the international community could end up in error with an unwanted conventional or nuclear war.
IEEE Technology and Society Magazine, 2014
2013 World Cyberspace Cooperation Summit IV (WCC4), 2013
The rhetoric over the rate with which statesponsored or state-endorsed cyber attacks has grown dramatically in the past years. Increasing dependence on information communication technologies by both state and non-state actors; compounded further by the low-cost of entry and the challenge of attribution within the cyber domain have all but assured that this phenomenon would continue in the foreseeable future. While there is no shortage of literature that discusses the benefits and ease with which these events occur within this domain, their dynamics have yet to be studied through the lens of cyber power. Through the analysis of state cyber power visa -vis historical cyber conflicts between states, the study identifies cyber strategies that states may use against each other. The findings provided by this study may go on to aid in establishing appropriate controls to not only mitigate the possible impact of future cyber conflicts but may also lead to the creation of effective deterrence mechanisms.
Strategic Analysis, 2010
The last couple of decades have seen a colossal change in terms of the influence that computers have on the battle field, to an extent that defence pundits claim it to be a dawn of a new era in warfare. The use of computers and information in defence has manifested into various force multipliers such as Information Operations, C4I2SR Systems, Network Centric Warfare, to the extent that commentators are terming this information age as a Revolution in Military Affairs (RMA). These advances have not only revolutionized the way in which wars are fought, but have also initiated a new battle for the control of a new dimension in the current contemporary world: The Cyber Space. Over time cyber warfare has assumed the shape of an elephant assessed by a group of blind people, with every one drawing different meanings based upon their perceptions. Under these circumstances there was a gradual paradigm shift in military thinking and strategies, from the strategic aspect to the tactical aspect of cyber warfare laying more emphasis on cyber attacks and counter measures. This resulted in the formation of a notion that cyber warfare or information warfare is a potent force multiplier, which in a sense downgraded the strategic aspects of cyber war to a low grade tactical warfare used primarily for a force enhancement effect. The author believes this is wrong, cyber war is a new form of warfare and, rather than cyber war merely being an enhancement of traditional operations, traditional operations will be force multipliers of cyber war. This paper tries to shatter myths woven around cyber warfare so as to illuminate the strategic aspects of this relatively misinterpreted notion. This paper will elucidate the scenarios and mechanisms illuminating the process of using the strategies of cyber war, so as to achieve conventional objectives. The paper will also analyze the doctrine and strategies including first and second strike capabilities with regard to cyber war. This paper identifies a paradigm shift from the conventional belief of cyber warfare acting as a force multiplier for conventional warfare to the recognition, that conventional warfare will be acting as a force multiplier around cyber war and hence making cyber war as the primary means of achieving grand strategic objectives in the contemporary world order.
IAFOR Journal of Politics, Economics & Law, 2017
A review of state-associated incidents in cyberspace over the past decade reveals that over two thirds of these involved actors within the Asia-Pacific, often occurring in the context of politico-economic disputes. These activities, ranging from attempts at espionage to coercion, in all appearance appears to confirm the domain's increasing strategic value. But upon closer inspection, only half of these have resulted in meeting their political objectives. Moreover, these have involved notable regional powers employing relatively unsophisticated tools and tactics in cyberspace. This challenges the prevailing notion that cyberspace provides an asymmetric advantage for middling and/or weak powers due to its low cost of entry and the increasing technological dependence of targets. With growing tensions in the Asia-Pacific, the need to better understand the strategic utilization of this domain is paramount. In so doing, this paper argues that coercive success in cyberspace is not determined solely by an aggressor's technological prowess but depends crucially on appropriate force employment and an understanding of the domain's unique geography. Through the analysis of the Stuxnet operation, the paper demonstrates that careful consideration of these factors may better account for the success or failure of coercion in the domain.
2020
This book represents a look beyond theories and analogies to examine the challenges of strategy implementation. In the essays that follow, practitioners who are building cyberspace forces at-scale join scholars who study power and force in this new domain to collectively offer a unique perspective on the evolution and future of cyber strategy and operations. The co-editors of Ten Years In compiled it in the tenth year of operations for U.S. Cyber Command. During that decade, the Command worked with the Services and the Coast Guard to build seven component commands, attained unified combatant command status, and matured the Cyber Mission Force's 133 teams. For the Department of Defense cyber enterprise, it has been a decade of operational learning and doctrinal development, culminating in the DoD Cyber Strategy, the U.S. Cyber Command Vision to Achieve and Maintain Cyberspace Superiority, and the revision of Joint Publication 3-12, Cyberspace Operations. Yet threats to our nation evolved and diversified over this decade as great-power competition spread to cyberspace and intruded on diplomatic relations below the threshold of armed conflict. Such threats now include state-sponsored theft of U.S. intellectual property and personally identifiable information, intrusions in critical infrastructure, and campaigns to influence and intimidate democratic institutions around the world. Cyberspace capabilities are now being integrated with all instruments of national power, to include conventional military operations and information warfare. The chapters to follow cover opportunities and challenges associated with implementing the principles articulated in national and military strategic guidance. These analyses offer historical perspective on cyber conflict, chart organizational developments, and reflect on challenges such as public-private relationships, manpower and talent, readiness and capabilities, and evolving authorities. In addition, this volume looks to the future with several reflections by promising cyberspace scholars and leaders in the Department of Defense and academia. I think readers will agree that this volume points to a maturation of cyberspace practice in the Department of Defense. Ten years ago U.S. Cyber Command began the transition from an idea to an institution to the persistent implementation of approaches to safeguard the Department of Defense's Information Networks, to support Joint Force commanders, and to defend the nation from cyberspace threats of strategic viii the newport papers consequence. This volume expands on previous strategic thought to suggest ways in which an emerging cyberspace strategy can be executed to its full potential. The partnership between the Naval War College's Cyber and Innovation Policy Institute and U.S. Cyber Command represented in this volume illustrates the role that professional military education plays in bridging gaps between practice and scholarship. Ten Years In should demonstrate how the Joint Force can profit from the expertise sustained by its professional military education enterprise as well as from the timely knowledge of those confronting the immediate challenges facing the Department of Defense.
2011 7th International Conference on Information Assurance and Security (IAS), 2011
This paper considers why information technologies should be considered in military conflicts and offers several events that support this supposition; identifies the various forms of doctrine that will become the basis for developing a Cyber War Doctrine (CWD); tenders a discussion of the possible components of a CWD; and a proposal for a national collaborative framework for obtaining stakeholder buy-in of a nation for such an endeavor.
2019
The course examines the evolution of cyberspace as a domain where states project power. It considers both hard and soft power as well as espionage and cyber-enabled information warfare and influence operations. It also considers how states are adapting to the threats and opportunities of this new domain. It examines how cyberspace interacts with the traditional domains of land, sea, air and space in which statecraft is prosecuted. And it explores the future of cyberspace and its potential to disrupt ideas of sovereignty and national security. The course takes a highly interdisciplinary approach under a complex systems chapeau and includes humanities, social sciences and natural sciences perspectives. This course was delivered as 'Statecraft and national security in cyberspace' at the Australian National University annually from 2015 to 2019
Journal of Strategic Security, 2012
Colarik is an independent consultant, author, researcher, and inventor of information security technologies. He has published multiple security books and publications in the areas of cyber terrorism, information warfare, and cyber security. He has made presentations before a host of groups and organizations; has appeared on syndicated TV and radio shows such as Fox News, The 700 Club, and Coast to Coast; and is a Fox News contributing cyber security and terrorism expert. Dr. Colarik's research interests involve technology's impact on social, political, legal, and economic structures in society; the design and implementation of secure communication systems; and the evolving applications and consequences of the global information infrastructure on businesses, governments, and individuals. For more information on Dr. Colarik, visit his website at: http://www.AndrewColarik.com. Dr. Lech Janczewski has over thirty-five years' experience in information technology. He was managing director of the largest IBM installation in Poland, and project manager of the first computing center in Nigeria.
The International Spectator, 2018
The convergence of telecommunication and computer technologies that has evolved in the field of information and communication technologies (ICT) in the last two decades has had very important effects on new war technologies and the ongoing process of battlefield digitisation. The Stuxnet worm, uncovered in 2010 and responsible for the sabotaging of a uranium enrichment infrastructure in Iran, is a clear example of a digital weapon. The incident shows what is meant by cyber war and what the particular features of this new warfare dimension are compared to the conventional domains of land, sea, air and space, with relevance both at the operational and strategic levels. But cyberspace also extends to the semantic level, within the complimentary field of information warfare involving the content of messages flowing through the Internet for the purposes of propaganda, information, disinformation, consensus building, etc. The overall cyber warfare domain needs to be put into perspective internationally as many countries are developing strong cyber capabilities and an 'arms race' is already taking place, showing that these technologies can potentially be used to undermine international stability and security. What is needed is a public debate on the topic and its impact on global stability, and some kind of regulation or international agreement on this new warfare domain, including an approach involving confidence building measures (CBMs).
Wilton Park Conference Reports, 2019
The human race has a propensity for conflict; on land, at sea, in the air and to some extent in outer space. Has cyberspace become the latest ‘battlespace’; a recognisable domain of military activity in which the organised armed forces of states should have specific roles and responsibilities? ‘Military operations in cyberspace’, a conference held at Wilton Park in early September 2018, set out to answer these questions from a variety of perspectives – operational, political, legal, moral, strategic and technical. Rather than follow a standard, thematic agenda, Military operations was structured sequentially. The conference began by asking why and how cyberspace might indeed be understood as a battlespace. Discussion then addressed in turn the more or less discrete phases of a notional conflict in cyberspace: the prevention of conflict (including deterrence); the means available for conflict in cyberspace (e.g. cyber weapons and dual- use platforms); the justification for military operations (e.g. threats, the balance between offensive and defensive capabilities); the conduct of operations (in two parts – the tactical/operational and the higher level strategic); the management of conflict (e.g. conflict mediation and de-escalation); legal and ethical constraints on military operations in cyberspace; and the conclusion of military operations (including the notions of victory, defeat and loss). The conference finished with a discussion of plausible futures for military operations in cyberspace. The conference highlighted above all that the national security communities and militaries of technologically advanced democracies are struggling to understand the character and Page 1 of 14 implications of all of these phases of potential conflict in cyberspace. The concluding section of this report is almost entirely devoted to raising a series of intricate and urgent questions that need further reflection. One certainty though is that militaries cannot effectively undertake this reflection on their own and that it must be conducted as part of a comprehensive, integrated civil-military approach to conflict in cyberspace.
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