The End of a Unified Syria

Journal of international humanitarian legal studies, 2022

This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the cc by 4.0 license.

The Syrian crisis, which started in 2011 as an anti-government protest against President Bashar-al-Assad, transformed into a civil war in the first quarter of 2012. Since then, the war continued unabated resulting as one of the worst humanitarian crises after the Second World War by killing more than 470,000 people and displacing half of the Syria's total population either internally or externally. It has also dragged regional and global powers to wage proxy war in its territory and caused spill-over effects within and beyond the region. In this context, this paper is an attempt to analyse the Syrian crisis, geopolitics behind the crisis and its implications. In doing so, the paper identifies different factors, such as authoritarian nature of President Bashar-al-Assad's government, sectarian division and deteriorated socioeconomic condition within Syria, competing gas export interest from regional as well as global powers, the intervention of foreign powers as major reasons for deepening the crisis and prolonging this war. The ruling Ba'ath Party of Syria headed by President Assad, a coalition of Syrian opposition forces and their military entity, regional and global forces, namely Saudi Arabia, Iran, Turkey, Qatar, the United States, Russia, Lebanon's Shiite militia group Hezbollah and different Sunni armed extremist groups like Al-Nusra Front and Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS) are the main actors of this war. The paper argues that apart from its devastating impact on Syria's socio-political and economic condition, the crisis has shaken the entire Middle East in particular and made a corrosive effect on the West's relations with both Russia and China as a whole. It has also caused the biggest wave of disorderly migration since the Second World War and facilitated the emergence of armed extremist organisations like ISIS and Al Nusra Front, which are posing serious threats to national security of Syria and beyond.

Just after the Syrian regime seemed close to finally winning the battle against the opposition, problems of governance and economic policy emerged to muddle the fate of Syria's almost nine-year crisis. As regime and Russian forces try to dislodge the opposition from Idlib province in northwestern Syria, serious developments concerning the Syrian economy and the ongoing discussion about a United Nations-sponsored constitutional document indicate that the Syrian people are likely to continue to suffer from the debilitating effects of the conflict. Economic Collapse as an Alternative to Reconstruction The Syrian regime has spent the last year focusing on the rewards of reconstruction activities in Syria, encouraging the European Union and regional countries to look for ways to invest in projects in the country. President Bashar al-Assad himself has put together a list of allies, at the top of which are Russia and Iran-countries that will have priority in undertaking such projects. What matters for the regime was and remains how these potential participants can contribute to reconstruction and whether they have the economic wherewithal to achieve it.

The center of Leadership and Diplomacy, 2024

What we have witnessed in the past few days was and still is a historic event by all standards, as the Assad family regime in Syria has fallen after 54 years of oppression, injustice, torture and brutality against the Syrian people and oppositions. This regime was the only one in the Arab world-and indeed the region- that displaced half of its population (over 12 million Syrians) and prevented their return, marking the largest displacement in modern history. Events in Syria are accelerating on a daily basis, which requires an analysis to assess the current situation and to anticipate the near-term future, given the complexity of the scene, the many internal and external players involved, and the ambiguity of unfolding events. This assessment will address the external players, the internal dynamics, the causes of this sudden shift, the relationship with the Palestinian issue, and short-term future expectations.

It is important to keep in mind that the Syrian civil war is still ongoing, even though it seems we are in its final stages. However, civil wars have a way of lingering. Indeed, in the case of the Lebanese civil war (1975-90), even though most parties, local and regional, were looking for an end to the bloodshed, it took years and a number of peace conferences, to reach a political agreement to end the war. I personally, do not expect a final political agreement in Syria before 2019. This paper will discuss the aftermath of the Syrian civil war, from a Lebanese perspective, tackling three broad subjects: 1-the refugees, 2-the economic impact, 3-the political angle

DOC expert speaks about The Syria Conflict and its implications https://doc-research.org/2019/04/doc-expert-speaks-about-the-syria-conflict-and-its-implications/, 2019

As a result of the 8-year civil war, the former political system of the state and its main institutions have turned out to be virtually destroyed today. They are not able to play an independent role in ending this conflict, particularly in managing the reconstruction and development of the country in peaceful conditions without external support. This circumstance assumes the consolidation of the efforts of the parties concerned in providing support to the new Syrian authorities in resolving this issue. DOC expert speaks about The Syria Conflict and its implications https://doc-research.org/2019/04/doc-expert-speaks-about-the-syria-conflict-and-its-implications/

The RUSI Journal, 2016

With what appears to be the imminent defeat of the so-called Islamic State in Syria and Iraq, and the growing military gains of the Syrian government and its allies, the Syrian conflict may appear to be reaching its final stages. At least this is the message that President Vladimir Putin aimed to convey during the visit by Iran’s Hassan Rouhani and Turkey’s Recep Tayyip Erdoğan to Sochi in late November, where he declared that the “militants in Syria have sustained a decisive blow and now there is a realistic chance of ending the multi-year civil war”

The military escalation since the beginning of 2018 has brought peace prospects into the distant future. The war has shifted from the east block to the west of Syria and brought new, dangerous conflict constellations in which state actors are directly confronted: the Turkish claim to control Manbij and the crisis with the US, the struggle for the resource-rich region Deir ez-Zour and the direct conflict between Russia and the US as well as an escalation between Israel and Iran in southwestern Syria. Additionally, as a result of alleged chemical weapons attacks, ‘punitive actions’ by Western states, such as air strikes on the regime‘s military bases and its allies, could further increase the escalation risk. (2018/09/04)

CAPS InFocus, 2017

The Syrian Civil War has entered its seventh year and has accounted for more than 500,000 killed, over 1 million injured and over 12 million Syrians living as refugees or Internally Displaced Persons (IDPs). It started in 2011, partially due to the ripple effect caused by Arab Spring in the nations along the West Asian and North African (WANA) regions, and also due to the resentment of the population to the Syrian regime led by Bashar Al Assad. What began as peaceful protests in March 2011 erupted into violent, brutal attacks, all culminating into the bloodiest conflict in the 21st century, which saw intervention by many State and non-State actors like Al-Qaeda, Al-Nusra Front and the like. The involvement of foreign powers led by the US and its allies in Europe and West Asia exacerbated the situation, when they started arming, funding and training rebels and/or terrorist groups. The other prominent actors like Turkey, Qatar, Saudi Arabia supported the rebels and/or terrorist groups, while the Syrian forces were supported by Iran, Iraq and Lebanon-based militia group, Hezbollah, and lately by the Kurdish groups. In 2015, Russia too intervened in Syria to back the government forces. In April 2017, the US administration carried out its first direct military action against the Syrian government, launching cruise missiles at a Syrian air force base.