SETTING UP THE FOREST FUTURES HORIZON SCANNING SYSTEM

The Forest Futures Horizon Scanning Project

A key purpose of the Forest Futures Horizon Scanning system is to identify weak signals of potential future change and emerging issues for the USDA Forest Service and its stakeholders. An understanding of current issues facing the agency is a prerequisite for identifying weak signals and emerging issues. Scanners who work for the Forest Service generally have this understanding, but scanners from outside typically have little or no familiarity with current agency issues. This paper briefly describes an effort to develop a list of current issues for the Forest Service to be used by scanners in the Forest Futures Horizon Scanning project. Twelve broad current issues are identified and summarized.

Journal of Forestry

Foresight is essential for long-term planning and forward-looking decision-making in forestry, where planning horizons often span many decades. But generating foresight is challenging due to the increasing pace and complexity of change and growing uncertainty about the future. Most change that could affect or even disrupt forestry in the future originates outside of the field, such as social, technological, economic, and environmental changes. The Forest Futures Horizon Scanning project (Forest Horizons) aims to generate foresight by identifying early signals of change from outside forestry that professionals within the field may not be aware of or pay close attention to. This article draws on the database of signals of change uncovered in the Forest Horizons project and identifies fifteen key emerging changes that could help shape the long-term future of forestry. Study Implications: The long-term nature of forestry has compelled foresters to be forward-looking and plan many decade...

The Forest Futures Horizon Scanning Project

A clear and concise guide for volunteer scanners is essential for creating a rigorous, consistent, and sustainable horizon scanning system. The scanner guide written for the Forest Futures Horizon Scanning system is presented in its entirety. The guide includes an overview of the USDA Forest Service; an explanation of horizon scanning and its goals, uses, and stakeholders; a "how to" guide for installing and using the Web-based system for collecting scanning hits; a description of the domain map used in tagging scanning hits; and a quick guide to getting started in scanning.

Natural resource management organizations carry out a range of activities to examine possible future conditions and trends as part of their planning process, but the distinct approach of formal horizon scanning is often a missing component of strategic thinking and strategy development in these organizations. Horizon scanning is a process for finding and interpreting early indications of change in the external environment of an organization or field. Effective horizon scanning serves as an early warning system to identify potential opportunities and threats, enable decisionmakers to plan accordingly and take timely action, and foster a culture of foresight throughout an organization. This paper reviews and discusses the key items needed to create an effective horizon scanning system: conceptual frameworks, organizational approaches, design principles, techniques to improve effectiveness, and techniques for analyzing and interpreting scanning results.

The Forest Futures Horizon Scanning Project

A clear and concise guide for volunteer scanners is essential for creating a rigorous, consistent, and sustainable horizon scanning system. The scanner guide written for the Forest Futures Horizon Scanning system is presented in its entirety. The guide includes an overview of the USDA Forest Service; an explanation of horizon scanning and its goals, uses, and stakeholders; a "how to" guide for installing and using the Web-based system for collecting scanning hits; a description of the domain map used in tagging scanning hits; and a quick guide to getting started in scanning.

The Forest Futures Horizon Scanning Project

World Futures Review, 2018

North American forests and forest management institutions are experiencing a wide range of significant ecological disturbances and socioeconomic changes, which point to the need for enhanced resilience. A critical capacity for resilience in institutions is strategic foresight. This article reports on a project of the North American Forest Commission to use Futures Research to enhance the resilience of forest management institutions in North America. The Aspirational Futures Method was used to develop four alternative scenarios for the future of North American forests and forestry agencies: (1) an extrapolation of current trends into the expectable future titled Stressed Forests, (2) a scenario of growing desperation titled Megadisturbances Call for Military Intervention, (3) a high aspiration future titled High Tech Transformation and Cooperation, and (4) an alternative pathway to a highly preferable future titled Cultural Transformation Embraces Indigenous Values. These scenarios w...

World Futures Review

Managers and policy makers are continually working toward a desired future within a context of rapid and turbulent change. To be effective in this context, they must look ahead to anticipate emerging trends, issues, opportunities, and threats. Horizon scanning is a foresight method that can help managers and policy makers develop and maintain a broad and externally focused forward view to anticipate and align decisions with both emerging (near-term) and long-term futures. This article reports on the design and early stage development and implementation of a horizon scanning system established for the U.S. Forest Service (USFS), Strategic Foresight Group, and developed cooperatively with the University of Houston Foresight Program. The goal of the project is to develop an ongoing horizon scanning system as an input to developing environmental foresight: insight into future environmental challenges and opportunities, and the ability to apply that insight to prepare for a sustainable future. In addition, the horizon scanning system is supported by volunteers from within the Forest Service. By including participants from throughout the Forest Service, the project seeks to foster a culture of foresight within the organization, and eventually to develop a more forward looking organizational structure for the USFS and other natural resource management agencies. Lessons learned from the experience to date are shared as well as future challenges for keeping the horizon scanning system in good working order-current, relevant, and consistent.