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2018
AI
This paper discusses the implications of Russian and US policies regarding the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, highlighting the threats posed to arms control by developments in missile defense systems and the geopolitical dynamics between the two powers. It examines Russia's reactions to US missile defense strategies, particularly in Europe, and the potential strategic adjustments that Russia may implement as a result. The analysis sheds light on the broader context of nuclear deterrence and highlights the challenges facing future arms control agreements.
SIPRI Yearbook 2019, 2019
Chapter by Petr Topychkanov, Shannon Kile and Ian Davis. In 2018 Russia and the United States completed the implementation of the 2010 Treaty on Measures for the Further Reduction and Limitation of Strategic Offensive Arms (New START). In February, the two countries announced that they had achieved the final New START force reduction limits by the specified deadline. However, the prospects for sustaining this progress appeared increasingly remote, given the political and military differences between the two countries. New START will expire in 2021 unless both parties agree to extend it, but there were no discussions in 2018 about doing so.
2018
Nuclear deterrence has been a critical aspect in governing bi-lateral relations between the United States of America and Russia during the Cold War since the 1950s, and this has gradually again increased in prominence during the last decade and a half. The essential focus is placed on the concept of 'minimum' nuclear deterrence and its link to one of the major pillars of post-Cold War international security; the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF Treaty). This was signed in Washington on 8th December 1987 between the United States, and the USSR; coming into force on 1st June 1988. It eliminated all nuclear and conventional missiles, including their launchers, with ranges of 500–1,000 kilometres (310–620 miles – classified as short-range) and 1,000–5,500 km (620–3,420 miles – classified as intermediate-range). But, the treaty did not cover sea-launched missiles and Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs). Nevertheless, by May 1991, 2,692 missiles were eliminate...
Recent Russian-Western tension has been of much focus. Following the annexation of Crimea, increased interests in the causes of division between Russia and the West have resulted in numerous explanations. This paper aims to add to the debate by explaining the impact of the termination of the Anti Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty and the role of ballistic missile defense in the American-Russian strategic relationship. After reviewing relevant the role of strategic deterrence and missile deference, it then surveys a chronology of key events involving the AMB Treaty; including the Cuban missile crisis, the Strategic Arms Limitation Talks, Strategic Defense Initiative, and the emerging debates and threats following the Cold War that led to its dismissal. By highlighting defining moments of crisis and cooperation, it attempts to show the historic importance of the Treaty in defining and stabilizing the behavior between these two states. To further demonstrate the Treaty’s weight this study then reviews recent areas of cooperation following its dissolution like that of the NATO-Russian Council and how these efforts have been complicated by Russian objections to American-led missile defense programs like that of the European Phased Adaptive Approach (EPAA). In doing so, it hopes to add a new layer in the debate concerning explanations for the current crisis in relations by reviewing the Georgian and Ukrainian conflicts. It contends that the strategic implications of the ABM Treaty’s abandonment have been underestimated, and that the EPAA contributes greatly to the bifurcation of European security. The hope is that by identifying key areas of contention and their role in state relations, future areas of cooperation can be illuminated to mitigate the current crisis between Russia and the West.
Osaka University law review, 1999
UFRGS Model United Nations, 2019
The present study guide aims at reassessing the Anti-Ballistic Missile (ABM) Treaty signed in 1972. Due to recent unfoldings in the international security system, such as the 2018 Trump administration’s withdrawal from the Intermediate Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty and the debate on the Iran Nuclear Deal (namely the Joint Com-prehensive Plan of Action), the discussion on the necessity of a new arms control treaty that comprises Ballistic Missile Defense (BMD) systems resurged. However, the current international scenario, unlike that of 1972, is marked by several actors holding Weapons of Mass Destruction (WMDs) and ABMs, as well as by BMDs now operating differently than before due to technological changes. As such, one may wonder whether a new ABM Treaty is necessary and, if so, how it must be shaped. In order to reevaluate the ABM Treaty nowadays, this guide is divided into 5 sec-tions: the first one presents the historical background of ABM development up to the 21st century, followed by a section discussing what drives states to develop BMDs and what role they play in the current international security system. The third section briefly analyzes the major arms control treaties signed so far, focu-sing on the ones that shaped the actions of states regarding BMDs. The following section summarizes the political position of the UNSC members on the topic. Fi-nally, we conclude by raising some questions to ponder if a new ABM Treaty is necessary and how it should be shaped.
This study assesses alternative roles of strategic nuclear weapons in US-Russian relations after expiration of the 2002 Moscow Agreement, a successor agreement to the START I Treaty. A range of alternative nuclear futures beyond a QDR-defined baseline in a post-2012 security environment are explored, focused on the degree in which the U.S. would require nuclear weapons to manage its relationship with Russia and other states, key indicators of changes in U.S-Russian security relationships, future threats and political utility of nuclear weapons under alternative futures and nuclear force postures. Key questions for investigation are: • To what degree will the US need nuclear weapons after 2012? • Will the United States need nuclear weapons to manage its relationship with Russia after 2012? • What direction might future American and Russian nuclear force postures take after expiration of the Moscow Agreement after 2012? What are the indicators of change? • For the US and Russia, will the future political utility of nuclear weapons increase or decrease after 2012? • Given a degree of uncertainty in the US-Russian cooperative relations, what combination of currently planned and programmed strategic force investments offer the least risk? Six alternative nuclear futures are outlines and assessed.
Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists, 2020
The onset of a crisis in US-Russian and global arms control has generated manifold proposals on ways to rejuvenate productive negotiations on weapons cuts and confidence building measures. Yet most of these plans are focused on technical details while failing to capture the central role of politics – both domestic and international – in enabling arms control. More important, many observers overlook the fact that, historically, US-Russian arms control negotiations only yielded concrete results when the sides were clear about their mutual intentions. Those intentions did not need to be cooperative; they could well be adversarial (as was the case during much of the Cold War). But for arms control to work, they had to remain at a stable, tested, and predictable level, which was clearly not the case in the late-2010s. To expect US-Russian arms control to regain its lost momentum by itself and salvage the political relationship would be to misunderstand the sources and context of past achievements in bilateral arms control.
Russian national security: perceptions, policies, and …, 2001
Issue Brief, 2019
The demise of the INF treaty between Russia and the United States (US) has drawn critical scrutiny. Whilst both Russia and the US have traded allegations and counter-allegations over responsibility for the demise of the INF treaty, global concerns mount about an intensified to nuclear arms race. The demise of the Treaty has further presaged the emergence of the ‘new’ Cold War (NCW) narrative. The question is whether the current Russia-US rivalry is indeed a NCW phase or is it a mere case of failed accommodation of interests by both the countries at the bilateral level. Also, the emergence of this New Cold War narrative for the West towards Russia is limited to its military resurgence. Interestingly, Russia too seem to accept this narrative. This could possibly because it elevates its position in the great power rivalry in par with the US despite its many drawbacks such as in its economic growth performance. Given these scenarios, it is crucial to evaluate the relevance of INF Treaty in today’s global context, and deconstruct the much hyped NCW narrative to evaluate the future scope of Russia-US relations and its likely impact on common partners such as India.
Contemporary Security Policy, 2014
Tactical nuclear weapons have emerged as an unavoidable issue for future nuclear weapons negotiations between Russia and the United States. This article discusses challenges and opportunities regarding a tactical nuclear weapons treaty. It begins with an overview of precedents from the 1987 Intermediate Nuclear Forces Treaty and the 1991 Presidential Nuclear Initiatives. These and subsequent experiences show three major obstacles that must be overcome to permit bilateral agreement on tactical nuclear weapons: definitional issues over differentiating tactical from strategic nuclear weapons; negotiation challenges including the asymmetries between American and Russian tactical arsenals and non-nuclear capabilities such as ballistic missile defence and conventional prompt global strike; and verification questions over whether and how warhead status can be verified without disclosing sensitive information. This analysis examines whether the International Atomic Energy Agency could have a role in verification to help facilitate agreement. Lastly, this article offers various confidence building measures, emphasizing areas where the two countries could cooperate. While the obstacles are serious, there are opportunities for achieving consensus on some contentious issues.
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Volume 73, Issue 4, pp.271-278. (co-authors: Tatiana Anichkina and Nickolas Roth), 2017
Annexes to "Nuclear Weapons and U.S.-Russian Relations Beyond the Moscow Treaty": • Assumptions and Analytic Framework • Definitions: Future Global Security Environments and Future Russian States • Six Alternative Nuclear Futures
2010
The United States and Russia signed the New START Treaty on April 8, 2010. The Senate Foreign Relations Committee and Senate Armed Services Committee both held hearings on the treaty. The U.S. Senate gave its advice and consent to ratification on December 22, 2010, by a vote of 71-26. Both houses of the Russian parliament-the Duma and Federation Councilapproved the treaty in late January 2011, and it entered into force on February 5, 2011, after Secretary of State Clinton and Foreign Minister Lavrov exchanged the instruments of ratification. New START provides the parties with seven years to reduce their forces, and will remain in force for a total of 10 years. It limits each side to no more than 800 deployed and nondeployed ICBM and SLBM launchers and deployed and nondeployed heavy bombers equipped to carry nuclear armaments. Within that total, each side can retain no more than 700 deployed ICBMs, deployed SLBMs, and deployed heavy bombers equipped to carry nuclear armaments. The treaty also limits each side to no more than 1,550 deployed warheads; those are the actual number of warheads on deployed ICBMs and SLBMs, and one warhead for each deployed heavy bomber. New START contains detailed definitions and counting rules that will help the parties calculate the number of warheads that count under the treaty limits. Moreover, the delivery vehicles and their warheads will count under the treaty limits until they are converted or eliminated according to the provisions described in the treaty's Protocol. These provisions are far less demanding than those in the original START Treaty and will provide the United States and Russia with far more flexibility in determining how to reduce their forces to meet the treaty limits. The monitoring and verification regime in the New START Treaty is less costly and complex than the regime in START. Like START, though, it contains detailed definitions of items limited by the treaty; provisions governing the use of national technical means (NTM) to gather data on each side's forces and activities; an extensive database that identifies the numbers, types, and locations of items limited by the treaty; provisions requiring notifications about items limited by the treaty; and inspections allowing the parties to confirm information shared during data exchanges. New START does not limit current or planned U.S. missile defense programs. It does ban the conversion of ICBM and SLBM launchers to launchers for missile defense interceptors, but the United States never intended to pursue such conversions when deploying missile defense interceptors. Under New START, the United States can deploy conventional warheads on its ballistic missiles, but these will count under the treaty limit on nuclear warheads. The United States may deploy a small number of these systems during the time that New START is in force. The Obama Administration and outside analysts argue that New START will strengthen strategic stability and enhance U.S. national security. They contend that New START will contribute to U.S. nuclear nonproliferation goals by convincing other nations that the United States is serious about its obligations under the NPT. This might convince more nations to cooperate with the United States in pressuring nations who are seeking their own nuclear weapons. Critics, however, question whether the treaty serves U.S. national security interests, as Russia was likely to reduce its forces with or without an arms control agreement and because the United States and Russia no longer need arms control treaties to manage their relationship. Some also consider the U.S.-Russian arms control process to be a distraction from the more important issues on the nonproliferation agenda.
This article analyzes possible consequences of the abolition of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, signed between the US and the USSR in 1987 and banning developing, testing and deploying intermediate-range missiles. The article argues that termination of the treaty would result in a conventional and especially a nuclear arms race as during the Cold War, and might trigger scrapping further agreements, although common sense in both parties enabled extending of the New START Treaty for 5 years. The new environment, with regional and global crises and massive armament by the global powers, including missile defense systems and hypersonic missiles, would endanger possible cooperation.
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