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2012, in Ögren, A. and Øksendal L-F (Eds.) The Gold Standard Peripheries – Monetary policy, adjustment and flexibility in a global setting Palgrave macmillan Publishers London
The comparative advantage of the historical profession is undoubtedly the past. Insights into the past are important for understanding the present, but do not easily translate into well-founded forecasts for the future. At the end of a volume exploring the experience of the gold standard peripheries, we are nevertheless tempted to say something on the present with possible bearings for the future. One reason for this is the timeless character of the objective under scrutiny. The scene-a world of global finance inhabited by sophisticated players and advanced instruments-might seem very different than a century ago. However, the ultimate objectives of monetary policy are much the same, to provide a stable currency and an efficient payments system. Central bankers and monetary authorities of today struggle with the same fundamental issues as their predecessors did before 1914: the maintenance of credibility, the challenges of adjustments and the desire for financial stability. Moreover, the asymmetry between core and periphery are still present: small economies continue to be regime takers with limited influence over the global regime.
Revista de Economia Política
The paper aims to establish interfaces between the Great Depression of the 1930s under the Gold Standard and the recent European Crisis under the Euro. It is argued that, despite their specificities, both crises revealed the potentially harmful effects, in economic and social terms, of institutional arrangements that considerably reduce the autonomy of monetary, fiscal and exchange rate policies of participating countries, without being accompanied by increased cooperation between them, which should be led by a global (in the case of the Great Depression) or regional (in the case of the European Crisis) hegemonic power, which is not only capable of, but is also willing to act as a buyer and lender of last resort, especially in circumstances characterized by increased uncertainty, the deterioration of the general state of expectations and increased liquidity preference. In fact, central European countries in the past and peripheral European countries nowadays were effectively pushed ...
This paper analyses the economic and monetary integration in Europe with the aim of deriving points of reference for the implementation of regional gold standard arrangements.
When currencies and monetary arrangements have broken down it has always been because the currency issuer can no longer fight the lure of the seigniorage to be gained by over issue of the currency. In the twentieth century this age old impulse was allied to new theories that held that economic downturns were caused or exacerbated by a shortage of money. It followed that they could be combated by the production of money.
2009
This paper analyses the economic and monetary integration in Europe with the aim of deriving points of reference for the implementation of regional gold standard arrangements. At the example of European currency arrangements it is shown how the implementation of regional currency arrangements function as the necessary precondition for the deepening of economic integration and how stable exchange rate conditions provide the impulses not only towards financial convergence but also towards harmonization of economic policies. The sequence of European monetary and economic integration has not been from economic integration towards common monetary arrangements, but common currency arrangements have served as factual preconditions that helped to enforce economic convergence. The study of the European sequence that runs from currency arrangements first towards deeper economic integration as its consequence reveals valuable insights how a regional gold standard might work as to its impact on...
Drawing on monthly data for 12 European countries, this paper asks whether countries under the Classical Gold Standard followed the so-called "rules of the game" and, if so, whether the external constraint implied by these rules was more binding for the periphery than for the core. Our econometric focus is a probit estimation of the central bank discount rate behaviour. Three main findings emerge: First, all countries followed specific rules but rules were different for core countries as opposed to peripheral countries. The discount rate decisions of core countries were motivated by keeping the exchange-rate within the gold points. In stark contrast, the discount rate decisions of peripheral countries reflected changes in the domestic cover ratio. The main reason for the different rules was the limited effectiveness of the discount rate tool for peripheral countries which resulted in more frequent gold point violations. Consequently, peripheral countries relied on high reserve levels and oriented their discount rate policy towards maintaining the reserve level. Second, there was a substantial amount of discretionary monetary policy left to all countries, even though we find that core countries enjoyed marginally more liberty in setting their discount rate than peripheral countries. Third, interest rate decisions were influenced more by Berlin than by London, suggesting that the European branch of the Classical Gold Standard was less London-centered than hitherto assumed. JEL classification: E4, E5, E6, F3, N13
This article explores the ways in which the classical gold standard established the foundations for a modern international monetary system with its distinctive forms of crisis and regulatory frameworks. The specific nature of this transformation is often overlooked because of a tendency in the literature to compare the gold standard in relation to subsequent monetary systems, such as BrettonWoods. To remedy this historical bias, the classical gold standard is compared with previous monetary systems and it is concluded that it contributed to expand the array of monetary instruments for conducting monetary policy. By progressively subjecting the management of fiduciary money to state control the institutions of the gold standard created a new monetary framework that opened the way for central banking. However, the commitments taken to this effect, such as provisions on the convertibility of banknotes, created new opportunities for speculation. I argue that this new weakness would become the main preoccupation of monetary policy in the 20th century and lay down the foundations for international cooperation and its novel emphasis on monetary stability.
1998
The gold standard was a system of fixed exchange rates that offered little opportunity for carrying out monetary policies, short of suspending gold convertibility. Trade integration and capital mobility were very high. It is worthwhile asking whether there are useful lessons to draw for EMU from European experience during that period. One clear lesson is that debts matter. Another basic finding is that the stability of the European gold standard depended on the underlying price trend. Deflation prior to 1895 resulted in rising public debt burdens, which forced some countries to leave the system. Once gold was discovered and deflation
Economic Policy, 1998
The gold standard was a system of fixed exchange rates that offered little opportunity for carrying out monetary policies, short of suspending gold convertibility. Trade integration and capital mobility were very high. It is worthwhile asking whether there are useful lessons to draw for EMU from European experience during that period. One clear lesson is that debts matter. Another basic finding is that the stability of the European gold standard depended on the underlying price trend. Deflation prior to 1895 resulted in rising public debt burdens, which forced some countries to leave the system. Once gold was discovered and deflation
The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, On line 21 July, 2021
With Jonas Ljungberg. In retrospect and erroneously the nineteenth century international gold standard was interpreted as a quest for monetary discipline. The discipline argument was introduced after WWI in support for a restoration of the gold standard. The interwar failure led to an emphasis on international balances, the argument which came to the fore in the preparations for the Bretton Woods system. The balance argument was central in the early discussions of monetary union in Europe, but with the criticism of Keynesianism the discipline argument became determinant in the design of the Economic and Monetary Union.
Lund Papers in Economic History. General Issues; No. 2019:190, 2019
While there is a huge literature on exchange rate systems since the classical gold standard, less research has been devoted to comparisons of the different arguments that guided the choices. While the origin of the international gold standard in the 1870s was a result of silver coins disappearing from circulation due to rising silver prices, the gold standard has later been interpreted as a quest for monetary discipline. This discipline argument was introduced by the end of WWI as a support for a restoration of the gold standard. Its failure led to an emphasis on the need to avoid external imbalances, which came to the fore in the preparations of the Bretton Woods system. The balance argument was also central in the early discussions of a monetary union in Europe, but with the critique of Keynesianism it was superseded by the disciplinary argument which became determinant for the design of EMU. Key words: exchange rates, Europe, gold standard, EMU JEL code: B17, B27, F31, N13, N14
ЭКОНОМИЧЕСКОЕ ВОЗРОЖДЕНИЕ РОССИИ (Economic Revival of Russia) периодическое научное Издание (Scientific Periodical), EKONOMICHESKOYe VOZROZHDENIYe ROSSII periodicheskoye nauchnoye Izdaniye,, 2019
Despite signs over the decades that the world role of the dollar has been problematic, and much recent commentary pointing to signs that de-dollarization is happening, questioning of the role of the dollar in the international monetary system has been remarkably untheoretical and unhistorical fashion. Since no heap of facts, no matter how large, can amount to an argument, this is a serious intellectual liability. Moreover, the world has been paying, at least the 1980s, a heavy price for this lack of understanding. The purpose of this paper is to clear up this misunderstanding by pointing to the largely ignored intimate and necessary relationship between financialization-of the Western economies and the pressures they generate for the rest of the world to follow suit, exposing them to dangerous financial and currency volatility-and the dollar-centred international monetary system. This relationship can only be understood by putting the dollar's world role in the longer historical perspective of the modern international monetary system, going back to the role of the pound sterling under to so-called international gold standard.
Cambridge Journal of Economics, 2009
The global financial and economic crisis has prompted renewed interest in international monetary reform. The key-currency status of the US dollar has been challenged but discussion of what might be reasonable objectives and institutional structures for a new system has not yet broken new ground. Nevertheless, as interest in the issue begins to include policymakers and non-governmental organisations, new proposals are likely to emerge. To assist the process, this paper provides an overview of how the international monetary system has evolved since the inauguration of the gold standard in the late 1800s to provide a context for some of the reform ideas that emerged during and after the discussions at Bretton Woods and some of the proposals that were offered subsequently. It concludes with an outline of three proposals by the author that are intended to expand the debate.
Ideas for the Future of the International Monetary System, 1998
This paper argues that the international monetary system will evolve into a bipolar structure consisting of a dollar area and a euro area, each of which attracting other countries to their gravitational centers. A deepening and widening of NAFTA and the EU will enlarge the sphere of influence of both currencies; trade wars will restrict them. The yen is a big question mark. The deep and still unresolved financial crisis in Japan works against the enlargement of the yen; deregulation of its financial markets, with the attendant decline in transaction costs, goes in the opposite direction. Our conclusion is that the yen area will be much smaller than the dollar and the euro area and, consequently, the two large blocs will shape the international monetary system of the 21st century in a critical way. We also discuss feasible scenarios of interaction between currency blocs. A large EMU works in favor of cooperation because fewer players imply lower decision-making costs in reaching a cooperative solution. The relative closeness of the EMU and the United States, on the other hand, works against cooperation and in favor of benign neglect. Exchange-rate agreements are fragile unless supported by strong commitment to economic policy cooperation, and such a commitment may well be premature. The article advocates that the United States and EMU target common inflation rates, an idea that Keynes proposed back in 1923.
L'Europe en Formation, 2009
Current Federal Reserve Policy Under the Lens of Economic History, 2015
Michael D. Bordo has helped to define the modern field of monetary history, drawing from it important policy lessons for current practitioners. For his seventieth year, we survey his contributions to our understanding of the Great Depression, money and the economy in historical perspective, exchange rate regimes including the gold standard, Bretton Woods, and the European Monetary Union, globalization, financial crises, the Canadian monetary experience, and historical guidance for monetary policy.
Review of Economic Studies, 101-117, 1989
The paper studies an idealized gold standard in a two—country setting. Without flexible national domestic credit expansion (dce) policies which offset the effect of money demand shocks on international gold reserves, the gold standard collapses with certainty in finite time through a speculative selling attack against one of the currencies. Various policies for postponing a collapse are considered. When a responsive dce policy eliminates the danger of a run on a country's reserves, the exogenous shocks disturbing the system which previously were reflected in reserve flows, now show up in the behaviour of the public debt. Unless the primary (non—interest) government deficit is permitted to respond to these shocks, the public debt is likely to rise (or fall> to unsustainable levels. For the idealized gold standard analysed in the paper, viability can be achieved only through the active and flexible use of monetary and fiscal policy.
Jens Adam et al., Europa dezentrieren. Frankfurt: Campus, 2019
The mistakes that led to the euro crisis are irreversible and fatal. The author was convinced in 2009/10, as were many commentators, that the euro would collapse under the weight of its contradictions. It did not because the European Central Bank, strongly supported by Germany, sacrificed the European economy to save the currency. Greece was crushed in 2015 pour encourager les autres. None of the basic problems have been addressed: the permanent deflationary bias, the German export surplus, the absence of appropriate fiscal institutions, political protection of French and German banks, the crippling division between North and South Europe. The truth is that national currencies were replaced by a single currency when the world was moving back to plural monetary instruments. There is no way that a single currency can meet the needs of over 300 million people living under such diverse circumstances. The crisis has been postponed, but not resolved. The Americans fought a civil war in order to unify their currency; the Europeans hoped that economic centralization would lead to political union. They got it the wrong way round. The paper reviews the specific history of the euro while drawing on critical commentary made by the author in 2002. This is not a financial crisis of credit and debt, but an episode in the history of money shaped by the collapse of national capitalism under pressure from a money circuit that is both global and lawless. The argument considers work by Smith, Polanyi, Mauss, Marx and Simmel and asks how money might be approached from a perspective of human economy.
1998
In this paper we analyze the changing role of gold in the international monetary system, in particular the persistence of gold holdings by monetary authorities for 20 years following the breakdown of the Brettone Woods system system and the Second Amendment to the Articles of Agreement of the International Monetary Fund which severed the formal link to gold. We stress
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