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KAS SCS Way Forward Post Arbitration

2017, TRAVERSING THE CHALLENGES: POLITICAL, ECONOMIC, AND ENVIRONMENTAL DIMENSIONS OF MARITIME AND REGIONAL SECURITY

Abstract

While the arbitration was absolutely pivotal to the Philippine strategy in dealing with China in the South China Sea, it was always just one of several approaches that the Philippine government under Aquino employed. Even after the case had been filed, Manila continued its efforts to seek diplomatic resolution through the ASEAN-China dialogue on a Code of Conduct. It also sought stronger security ties with its traditional ally – the United States – as well as receiving the support of other friendly governments such as Japan, Australia and the Republic of Korea for capability-building for maritime security. However, there were two other strategies that the Aquino government chose not to pursue. One was to engage China in direct dialogue. Refraining from dialogue seems logical if the Philippines feared that China would use this to pressure it into withdrawing from the arbitration case (as China tried to do up to the very last minute). On the other hand, the Aquino government could have used bilateral dialogue to press China to back down, leveraging support from its allies and its leading role on this issue within ASEAN, if it was interested in preserving its relationship with China. Without this bilateral platform, however, the arbitration could not be interpreted in any other way than as a hostile act. The other In terms of legal importance, the “final and binding” arbitration ruling may be the most significant decision to come out relating to the implementation of UNCLOS as the “constitution of the oceans”. However, in terms of political-diplomatic utility for a region learning to manage ties with a rising power, or its function of promoting Philippine interests including security and access to resources, it may have a relatively short shelf life.