Hamilton and Its Hinterland

2014

The population of the Northland Region has grown slowly but steadily over the past 27 years, from around 127,656 in 1986 to 158,700 in 2013 (+23.4 per cent). Under the medium case assumptions, the population is projected to grow slowly to approximately 173,490 by 2031 (+9.6 per cent). 2. Whangarei has consistently comprised the largest proportion of the Northland Region's population, accounting for just over half in 2013, and for 60 per cent of the region's growth since 1986. The Far North District grew by 22 per cent over the period, contributing one-third of the region's growth, and the Kaipara District by 11 per cent, accounting for the remaining 6 per cent. Both the Far North and Kaipara Districts declined slightly between 2011 and 2013. 3. The major cause of the Region's growth and that of each TA has been natural increase (the difference between births and deaths), and this is expected to continue. However at regional level natural increase is projected to diminish to about one-third of its 2011 level by 2031, and to much lower proportions for the Far North and Kaipara Districts. Net migration, which contributed significant numbers between 2001 and 2007, especially for Whangarei, is likely to be modestly negative until around 2016, but positive thereafter, at around 1,000 per five year period. Increasingly, 'natural increase' will be driven by growth at 65+ years, as the baby boomer cohorts (born 1946-65) move into these age groups and numbers rise due to increasing longevity. Eventually however, the same cohorts will drive the end of natural growth, as deaths will increase and will not be replaced by births. 4. As elsewhere outside the Auckland Region and a few major cities, the Northland Region and its TAs experience an ongoing problem in terms of net migration loss at 15-19 and 20-24 years of age, albeit the loss between 2008 and 2013 was lower than between 1996 and 2001. Net migration gains at most younger and older ages, particularly between 2001 and 2006, partially offset that loss, but they are not perfect substitutes because the sustained loss at young adult ages compounds over time to reduce the primary reproductive age group (20-39 years). Despite being augmented by net migration gains at 25-39 years, the proportion at reproductive age in all TAs is substantially lower than is the case nationally; and despite the Region's higher than average birth rate, results in a reducing number of births, and depresses natural increase. 5. As a result of these trends the Northland Region has the second-oldest age structure of the 16 Regional Council areas. At the same time, the Region's TAs are not the nation's oldest. Of New Zealand's 67 TAs, Kaipara District currently has the 20 th oldest age structure, Whangarei District the 24 th oldest, and the Far North District, 28 th oldest. As elsewhere all are ageing numerically, as more people survive to older ages, and structurally, as the net loss at 15-24 Box 1: Key thresholds indicating end of growth phase Onset of youth deficit (proportion of population aged 15-24 years declines below 15 per cent) Fewer people at labour market 'entry' than 'exit' age (15-24: 55-64 years; 20-29: 60-69 years) More elderly than children (65+ : 0-14 years) Key reproductive age population (20-39 years) declines below 15 per cent of the population More deaths than births (natural decline) Absolute decline These issues are being investigated more deeply by researchers at the National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA) and their colleagues at Massey University:

Economic Record, 1977

This article looks at movements of persons aged 25 to 44 years between central municipalities and suburban municipalities in the country's three largest metropolitan areas - Toronto, Montréal and Vancouver. More specifically, the article presents socio-economic characteristics of persons most and least likely to leave the central municipality for a neighbouring municipality.

2020

2011

1. The population of Hastings has grown slowly but steadily over the past three decades, from just above 64,000 in 1986 to around 75,500 in 2011. It is projected to continue slow but steady growth throughout the projection period, reaching around 84,000 in 2031 (6.6 per cent above 2011). The trends are similar to, but at higher levels than for, the Hawke's Bay region, which is projected to increase by around 1.9 per cent. In both cases almost all growth is at 65+ years. 2. Hastings has a slightly smaller proportion of those of European/New Zealand/Other ethnicity than either the Hawke's Bay region or Total New Zealand, and a slightly larger proportion of both Māori and Pacific Island than the Hawke's Bay. Hastings also has proportionately fewer of Asian origin. 3. In all cases, the number in each ethnic group has grown, but substantially less so for the European/New Zealander/Other group, which actually declined slightly between 1996 and 2001. For Hastings this group grew overall by 3.4 per cent during the period 1996-2006, while the Māori population grew by 5.8 per cent, accounting for approximately 18 per cent of Hastings' growth. For the Hawke's Bay region, the European population grew by 0.7 per cent overall, against 4.3 per cent for Māori, who accounted for 26 per cent of the Hawke's Bay's growth. 4. The main component of Hastings's growth is natural increase. Net migration loss across the 1990s to 2001, again across 2006-09 and in 2010-11 partially offset that growth. The trends are similar for both the Hawke's Bay and Total New Zealand, although in the latter case net migration loss occurred only across the period 1998-2001. 5. Components of change by age (which are free of cohort size effects) show that most of Hastings's net migration loss between 1996 and 2006 was concentrated at 15-19 and 20-24 years of age. Hastings also saw small net migration gains at 5-14, 30-44, and 65-69 years across the period. The trends were similar for the Hawke's Bay region. 6. From a cross-sectional perspective (that is, change by age group rather than cohort), overall numbers for Hastings declined between 1996 and 2010 at 0-9 and 25-39 years, and increased at all older ages, most particularly across the Baby Boomer age groups. The trends are similar for Total Hawke's Bay (but the losses greater), while for Total New Zealand, net decline occurred at ages 5-9 and 30-34 years only. As noted these changes are partly due to cohort size effects. 7. As elsewhere, the population of Hastings is ageing. However like many 'rural' areas its ageing is being accelerated because sustained net migration loss at young adult ages has caused a deep bite to develop in the age structure across age 20-39 years. The minor gains at older ages also add to structural population ageing. The trends have been similar for the Hawke's Bay region. 8. The changes by age have important implications for the labour market. Hastings's Labour Market 'entry/exit ratio' (population aged 15-24 / 55-64 years) has fallen steadily since 1996, from 16.6 people at labour market entry age for every 10 in the retirement age zone, to just 11.3 in 2010. By comparison, Total New Zealand still has 13.2 people at entry age per 10 at exit age, while the Hawke's Bay Region, similar to Hastings, has 10.6 per 10. Of note is that if older age groupings are used, for example 20-29 and 60-69 years, Hastings in 2010 had 11.1 entrants per 10 exits, compared with 14.8 for Total New Zealand and 10.3 for Hawke's Bay. Again this is a reflection of the deeper bite in the age structures of Hastings and the Hawke's Bay at ages 20-34. 9. As elsewhere in New Zealand, the age structures of Hastings's major ethnic groups differ markedly, with the European/New Zealander/Other population relatively old and the Māori and What you need to know about these data Data sources: All data used in this report have been sourced from Statistics New Zealand. Most have been accessed via Infoshare or Table Builder, while some have come from purchased, customised databases specially prepared for NIDEA by Statistics New Zealand. Because the data come from different collections and/or are aggregated in different ways, for example by ethnicity or labour force status, and small cell sizes have been rounded by Statistics New Zealand to protect individuals, they often generate different totals. While considerable care has been taken to ensure that such inter-and intra-collection discontinuities are acknowledged and accounted for, for example via footnotes to tables or in the text, the disparities are not usually large, and typically do not affect the story being told. The matter is drawn to the attention of readers who are often concerned when numbers which 'should' be the same, are not. The time-series data in Figures 1.1 and 1.2 are a particular case in point. Ethnicity: The 'multiple count' method of enumerating the population by ethnic group is another case worthy of special note. The ethnic concept underlying data used in in this report is: 'the ethnic group or groups that people identify with or feel they belong to. Ethnicity is selfperceived and people can belong to more than one ethnic group. For example, people can identify with Māori ethnicity even though they may not be descended from a Māori ancestor. Conversely, people may choose to not identify with Māori ethnicity even though they are descended from a Māori ancestor' (Statistics New Zealand 2011). Counting people more than once makes analysis of the data and its interpretation particularly difficult. Some analysts prefer to calculate proportions based on the summed numbers in each ethnic group, which is the approach taken here, while others prefer to use the total population count as the denominator (eg., for a region). The problem with the latter method is that proportions sum to well over 100 per cent, making it difficult to interpret the resulting graphs. The approach in this paper has been to identify the extent of the 'over count'. Residual method for estimating total net migration: This paper uses a residual method for estimating net migration. First, deaths for a given observation (eg one single year) are subtracted from births to give an estimate of natural increase. Second, the population at one observation is subtracted from the population at the previous observation, to give an estimate of net change between the two observations. Third, natural increase for that observation is subtracted from net change, to give the component due to net migration. These issues are being investigated more deeply by researchers at the National Institute of Demographic and Economic Analysis (NIDEA) and their colleagues at Massey University: