Missile Defence in South Asia

Politeja, 2017

The order of this article is as follows. Firstly, we will address the issue of the ballistic missiles because their properties obviously reflect on the missile defence – thus we will define and describe the threat. Secondly, we will discuss the missile defence as such – specifically pointing out at its inherent limitations. And finally, we will shortly present the missile defence arsenals of the world with particular reference to the United States.

The construct of nuclear balance of deterrence between India and Pakistan has limited the former's options to coerce the latter in the prevailing conventional-military asymmetry between them. This strategic compromising position of New Delhi has forced it to chalk out a strategy, which could reinstate its militarily advantageous position in the region and also demonstrate its military primacy in the strategic theater of India and Pakistan. New Delhi, therefore, has been endeavoring to develop or acquire new generation of weapon—Ballistic Missile Defense systems. The missile shield is yet to be proven in the battle field. The advancement in technology, however, generates an impression that system would be viable in the near future or at least provide psychological military superiority to its holder. The psychological military superiority and sense of immunity from the ballistic missile strikes of an adversary could create

Missile Defense: Confrontation and Cooperation / Ed. by Alexei Arbatov and Vladimir Dvorkin; English version ed. by Natalia Bubnova, 2013

This book, produced within the framework of the Carnegie Moscow Center’s Nonproliferation Program, has been written by leading Russian and foreign experts in the field of missile defense. In examining this complex issue, the authors address its historical evolution and its military technical, strategic, political, and legal aspects. The book will be of interest to experts in international relations and security, as will as to a broader readership. The fifteenth chapter (Natalia Romashkina and Petr Topychkanov) analyzes regional missile defense programs in third countries (the Middle East and Asia-Pacific region).

2012

“‘In 2012, the unequal relationship between India and Pakistan is spinning sharply out of control. Terrorists attack the Indian parliament and kill two ministers and 12 MPs. There is no doubt that Pakistan had a hand in this, and in a month India goes to war. Pakistan threatens to use nuclear weapons if India does not stop the invasion. Indian troops close in on Lahore, and Pakistan launches Ghauri missiles with nuclear warheads aimed at Delhi... A long-range radar for missile defense detects the Ghauri missiles 30 seconds after their launch. Five minutes later... the missile defense system launches interceptor missiles. Four Pakistani Ghauri missiles explode in the sky and fall harmlessly to the ground in pieces... The city of Delhi is saved. India carries out a nuclear counterattack that, in the words of one military officer, ‘will put an end to Pakistan once and for all.’ Science fiction? Not entirely.” This text was published by Raj Chengappa, a columnist for the Indian magazine India Today, in the official publication of the Indian Embassy in Moscow in 2008. Setting aside for the moment an analysis of India’s possible use of a missile defense system, it is necessary to note that the initial stage of the author’s fictitious conflict repeats the course of many Pakistani-Indian conflicts. Among the most serious of these were the crises of 2001-2002 and 2008, which were characterized by a common development: an act of terrorism in India, followed by a reciprocal show of strength and a growth of mutual tensions in India and Pakistan. Further escalation has so far been avoided, in no small measure thanks to active steps taken by other states. Raj Chengappa’s text demonstrates the consequences that could result from further escalation, including large-scale military operations with the use of conventional—and possibly nuclear—forces. For many specialists in India and Pakistan, it is clear that in the event of nuclear war between two powers of such territorial proximity, there cannot be a winner. Significant areas of the South Asian region would be rendered uninhabitable. The entire ecological system of the region would change. The consequences of a nuclear exchange would be felt far beyond South Asia. According to Raj Chengappa’s scenario, Indian missile defense could save Delhi from a nuclear attack, but it could not prevent a nuclear catastrophe. In fact, for the moment, it is difficult not only to consider Indian missile defense effective, but to see it as a system that really exists. India has not completed a missile defense system by 2012, in part due to its limited resources, scientific and technical difficulties, and obstacles encountered while obtaining the necessary technologies on the international market. However, an important role was also played by the deficit of expert consensus in India in regard to the expediency of the substantial costs associated with developing missile defense, which, as it seems at the moment, cannot guarantee the country’s protection from missile and nuclear threats. Moreover, it is expected that India’s success in this area will provoke responses on the part of its potential rivals, Pakistan and China, that will require additional spending. Despite the deficit of consensus, India continues development in the area of missile defense. Prospects for its success are actively discussed in India and abroad. Concerns about the reaction from Pakistan and China are beginning to be substantiated. The persistent uncertainty regarding Indian missile defense continues to adversely affect regional security. As a result, the assessments of missile and nuclear threats in South Asia, the prospects for missile defense in India, and the reactions on the part of its potential adversaries all remain relevant.

IEEE Spectrum, 1997

The Impact of US Ballistic Missile Defenses on …, 2002

Asian Military Review, 2014

A review of ongoing Ballistic Missile Defence programmes around the Asia-Pacific region and the wider world.

The Nonproliferation Review, 2002

Romanian Military Thinking, 2023

The rapid exploitation of the scientific research results for military purposes, implementing them in new weapon systems, has become a key factor in the global power relationships. The possession of the nuclear weapon has a relevant contribution to maintaining the high-power status by placing the states having it in the first positions of global military power hierarchy. Emerging technologies, in this case the missile defence, have the capability to threaten or strengthen strategic stability. Missile defence represents a complex system of armaments that includes a variety of capabilities designed to protect different objectives against missile attacks in different ways. The integrated missile defence system (IMDS) entails tracking weapons/missiles to know their location during the travel trajectory, assessing the missile nature and capability, detecting (sensors, radarsearly warning), identifying (sensor-or procedure-based), selecting the type of response (rules of engagement), selecting the weapon system to engage the missile (air/ground based-tracking, weapons) and destroying the missile (lethality-tactics and weapons effectiveness). Low observability aircraftstealth/invisible and network-centred warfare are technologies affecting IMDS performance. The missile defence is largely determined by the improvement of the detection (radars), the assets of engagement (weapon range, tracking, sensor fusion, situational awareness) and the degree of destruction (tactics).

Artha - Journal of Social Sciences, 2018

Over the years, India has been able to acquire a credible minimum nuclear deterrence. In this, the Agni missile system is integral to India"s counter second-strike capability especially against China. The Agni category missiles are solid propelled ballistic missiles, ranging from short range missiles to intermediate range missiles (700-5000kms) with road and rail mobility providing greater chances of survivability during an enemy attack. This strengthens its scope of launching a counter/second strike. This makes India one of the few countries in the world with the ability to potentially decapitate its enemy by preserving its arsenal in the first attack from the enemy. This article provides a deep analysis of India"s Agni missile systems.