Evaluating future urbanisation patterns in the Netherlands

Tijdschrift voor Economische en Sociale Geografie, 2005

ABSTRACT The agricultural sector in the Netherlands has lost much of its importance over the last 50 years in terms of the number of people involved and its relative contribution to the economy – even though production is still increasing. Yet, the area under agricultural use has ...

2006

Analyses of the impact of European policies on agricultural change are most often based on agricultural sector models. Such models have their limitations: they cannot specify the interaction between agriculture and the rest of the economy, and their spatial dimension is usually limited. Land use simulation models, on the other hand, usually depend on other models for assessing the demand for land. The consistency of those models with the assumptions and databases of the land use model is often not examined. This article reports on a research project where the links between a macroeconomic model, an agricultural sector model and a land use model were explicitly explored in order to arrive at a consistent model chain. This integrated framework was put to the test by applying it to two contrasting scenarios, which compare impact on agricultural incomes, land use and land management.

2006

Analyses of the impact of European policies on agricultural change are most often based on agricultural sector models. Such models have their limitations: they cannot specify the interaction between agriculture and the rest of the economy, and their spatial dimension is usually limited. Land use simulation models, on the other hand, usually depend on other models for assessing the demand for land. The consistency of those models with the assumptions and databases of the land use model is often not examined. This article reports on a research project where the links between a macroeconomic model, an agricultural sector model and a land use model were explicitly explored in order to arrive at a consistent model chain. This integrated framework was put to the test by applying it to two contrasting scenarios, which compare impact on agricultural incomes, land use and land management.

Transition in Agriculture …, 2003

The agricultural sector in the Netherlands has changed dramatically over the last 50 years in terms of its relative importance in the Dutch economy, number of farms and productivity per hectare and per worker. As a consequence of these changes, even in the rural areas farmers and ...

Environmental Modeling & Assessment, 2001

The present generation of geographical information systems supports strategic planning processes in several ways. They are able to store, manage and analyse the enormous amount of data needed. Another more output-oriented use is the visualisation of the diversity of locational preferences and perspectives of different interest groups and stakeholders. For the simulation of (more indirect) effects of autonomous or planned developments land use modelling can be applied. A step further is the definition and implementation of a set of indicators that show the impact of land use change on different aspects of space and the environment in order to facilitate the (political) discussions, that are an essential part of strategic planning. This paper focuses on the application of a GIS-based simulation model in the framework of the Fifth National Physical Planning Report in the Netherlands. The simulation model generates future land use in the Netherlands given several growth scenarios and a spatial strategy that comprises both foreseen strategic and autonomous developments. Special attention is paid to residential construction because this is expected to be one of the major driving forces in land use changes. An analysis of residential construction for the period 1980–1995 reveals that residential construction has been relatively concentrated in areas close to existing urban areas. New town policies also played a rather strong role during this period. The presence of natural areas (woods and wetlands) plays a significant though limited role in the choice where to build new dwellings. The simulation results for the year 2020 are used to assess the effects of land use changes for a range of environmental indicators.

The Annals of Regional Science, 2008

This paper presents two sets of functional indicators that were implemented and tested for the assessment of spatial aspects of future land-use configurations as simulated by a land-use model. This is potentially useful for the ex-ante evaluation of spatial planning policies. The indicators were applied in a Dutch case study and relate to two important themes in Dutch spatial planning: compact urbanisation and mixing of land uses. After a short introduction of these themes, the sets of indicators are presented which are used for their evaluation. These indicators are applied to simulations based on two scenarios for land-use development in the Netherlands up to 2030. After a discussion of the results we conclude that the combined application of land-use models and indicators produces new and potentially useful information for policy makers, although both the model and the associated indicators are still in a state of development.

Landscape Ecology, 2010

Land use change is characterized by a high diversity of change trajectories depending on the local conditions, regional context and external influences. Policy intervention aims to counteract the negative consequences of these changes and provide incentives for positive developments. Region typologies are a common tool to cluster regions with similar characteristics and possibly similar policy needs. This paper provides a typology of land use change in Europe at a high spatial resolution based on a series of different scenarios of land use change for the period 2000-2030. A series of simulation models ranging from the global to the landscape level are used to translate scenario conditions in terms of demographic, economic and policy change into changes in European land use pattern. A typology developed based on these simulation results identifies the main trajectories of change across Europe: agricultural abandonment, agricultural expansion and urbanization. The results are combined with common typologies of landscape and rurality. The findings indicate that the typologies based on current landscape and ruralities are poor indicators of the land use dynamics simulated for the regions. It is advocated that typologies based on (simulated) future dynamics of land change are more appropriate to identify regions with potentially similar policy needs.

The paper describes the results of a research that tried to build a well structured method to estimate future requirements on land, by agriculture or other sectors, in densely populated areas. By using, amongst others, scenario analysis and strategic orientation rounds, a method is developed to support policy optimisation and to explore alternative future developments. Secondly, this method is applied to the case of agriculture in Flanders as to show the applicability of the model and to deliver some discussion material for policy makers in Flanders. The results of this research can be used by policy makers to build a new Spatial Plan Flanders for the period 2007-2013.

Environment and Planning B-planning & Design, 2004

Lecture Notes in Computer Science, 2014

This paper describes an agent-based simulation model of rural land exchange in the Netherlands. The model development process is part of an ongoing research program aiming at understanding the effects of climate change and socioeconomic drivers on agriculture land use and nature conservation. The first model version reported in this paper, is being developed for the Baakse Beek region in the Netherlands and is empirically grounded. The general framework described in this paper will be applied to another case study area in the Netherlands in the second phase of our research program and compare the projected land use patterns in the two case studies region.