Multi-hazard risk analysis using the FP7 RASOR Platform

AIP Conference Proceedings, 2006

The world stress map-a freely accessible tool for geohazard assessment, Recent Geodynamics Georisk and

2012

2016

More than 4 million Indonesians live in tsunamiprone areas along the southern and western coasts of Sumatra, Java and Bali. Although a Tsunami Early Warning Center in Jakarta now exists, installed after the devastating 2004 tsunami, it is essential to develop tsunami risk knowledge within the exposed communities as a basis for tsunami disaster management. These communities need to implement risk reduction strategies to mitigate potential consequences. The major aims of this paper are to present a risk assessment methodology which (1) identifies areas of high tsunami risk in terms of potential loss of life, (2) bridges the gaps between research and practical application, and (3) can be implemented at community level. High risk areas have a great need for action to improve people's response capabilities towards a disaster, thus reducing the risk. The methodology developed here is based on a GIS approach and combines hazard probability, hazard intensity, population density and people's response capability to assess the risk. Within the framework of the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) project, the methodology was applied to three pilot areas, one of which is southern Bali. Bali's tourism is concentrated for a great part in the communities of Kuta, Legian and Seminyak. Here alone, about 20 000 people live in high and very high tsunami risk areas. The development of risk reduction strategies is therefore of significant interest. A risk map produced for the study area in Bali can be used for local planning activities and the development of risk reduction strategies.

Extreme Geohazards: Reducing the Disaster Risk and Increasing Resilience, 2014

Extreme Geohazards: Reducing the Disaster Risk and Increasing Resilience Hans-Peter Plag, Sean Brocklebank, Deborah Brosnan, Paola Campus, Sierd Cloetingh, Shelley Jules-Plag, and Seth Stein Extreme geohazards have the potential to generate global disasters. • Recent large earthquakes have illustrated the extent of the destruction that extreme geohazards can inflict on a modern society, particularly through cascading effects and chains of failure. • Disaster risk reduction (DRR) focuses on the risk associated with relatively frequent hazards with major impacts, while the risk associated with low-probability, high-impact events is not sufficiently considered. • Threats from low-frequency, high-impact events are grossly underestimated in DRR. • This is particularly true for volcanic eruptions. So far, modern civilisation has not been exposed to an eruption comparable to the most extreme events that occurred during the Holocene. • Under today’s circumstances, these events are associated with extreme disaster risks, comparable to other possible mega-disasters from extreme droughts, floods, pandemics and asteroid impacts. • A global volcano-monitoring system is required as a basis for an early warning system to provide timely warnings to mitigate impacts on transportation and food security. • A cost–benefit analysis shows that on a global basis several billion dollars per year should be invested to significantly reduce the risk associated with extreme volcanic eruptions. • Efficient DRR will also require a reduction in the vulnerability of infrastructure, an increase of general economic and social resilience, and the development of capabilities to adapt to potentially large long-term changes in environmental conditions. • A paradigm shift toward integrated DRR and Resilience (D3R) programmes could more aggressively facilitate the public trust, cooperation, and communication needed to adequately prepare for and recover from expected disasters as well as ‘ Black Swan’ disasters (low-probability, high-consequence events that are difficult to predict or prevent). • In D3R, science does not have the primary goal of reducing uncertainties and prediction errors for hazards, but rather to develop antifragile processes and strengthen resilience through increased social capital. • An international process is needed to assess repeatedly the global risk associated with extreme hazards, including geohazards, and our preparedness to cope with these high-impact events. • This process could be an amalgam of the process used by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the Quaternary Defense Review carried out by the Department of Defense of the USA, and the Global Risk assessment carried out by the World Economic Forum. • A model-based global simulation of one or more extreme volcanic eruptions that took place during the Holocene would provide a basis for a realistic assessment of the risk and the identification of potential cascading effects and chains of failure. • The International Charter on Space and Major Disasters should be extended to cover cases of emerging threats for early warning purposes prior to the occurrence of a disaster.

Journal of the Geographical Institute Jovan Cvijic, SASA, 2013

Natural disasters of all kinds (meteorological, hydrological, geophysical, climatological and biological) are increasingly becoming part of everyday life of modern human. The consequences are often devastating, to the life, health and property of people, as well to the security of states and the entire international regions. In this regard, we noted the need for a comprehensive investigation of the phenomenology of natural disasters. In addition, it is particularly important to pay attention to the different factors that might correlate with each other to indicate more dubious and more original facts about their characteristics. However, as the issue of natural disasters is very wide, the subject of this paper will be forms, consequences, temporal and spatial distribution of geophysical natural disasters, while analysis of other disasters will be the subject of our future research. Using an international database on natural disasters of the centre for research on the epidemiology of disasters (CRED) based in Brussels, with the support of the statistical analysis (SPSS), we tried to point out the number, trends, consequences, the spatial and temporal distribution of earthquakes, volcanic eruptions and dry mass movements in the world, from 1900 to 2013.

2008

Assessment of Vulnerability to Natural Hazards, 2014

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2021

Research Ideas and Outcomes, 2019

Hazards and disasters have occurred throughout Earth's History and thus the geological record is an important resource for understanding future hazards and disasters. The Earth Science Group (ESG) of the Consortium of European Taxonomic Facilities (CETAF) carried ‡ § | ¶ # ¤ «,» ˄ ˅ ‡ ¦ ‡ © Tilley L et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY 4.0), which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited. out a "Hazard and Disaster Event Survey" to identify Earth Science collections in European museums that represent hazards and disasters throughout the geological record, and recent times. The aim is to use the collections within the survey as an educational and research resource that promotes the importance of museum collections for understanding past and future hazard and disaster events. The survey pinpointed a wide variety of hazards (e.g. earthquakes, volcanism, floods, impact events, etc.), representing a vast time span in Earth's history (Proterozoic to Holocene), that are documented in the collections of the participating museums. Each hazard and disaster event has been described in terms of how they are preserved (e.g. fossil record or rock record), spatial scale, impact on life, and geological age. Here we showcase seven examples in detail which include well-known and less-known events from the survey that have contributed to our understanding of hazard and disaster processes and their impact on life. Also we present general conclusions and lessons learnt from the "Hazard and Disaster Event Survey".