Expanding advanced civilizations in the universe

Foresight, 2018

Purpose: This paper formalizes long-term trajectories of human civilization as a scientific and ethical field of study. The long-term trajectory of human civilization can be defined as the path that human civilization takes during the entire future time period in which human civilization could continue to exist. Approach: We focus on four types of trajectories: status quo trajectories, in which human civilization persists in a state broadly similar to its current state into the distant future; catastrophe trajectories, in which one or more events cause significant harm to human civilization; technological transformation trajectories, in which radical technological breakthroughs put human civilization on a fundamentally different course; and astronomical trajectories, in which human civilization expands beyond its home planet and into the accessible portions of the cosmos. Findings: Status quo trajectories appear unlikely to persist into the distant future, especially in light of long-term astronomical processes. Several catastrophe, technological transformation, and astronomical trajectories appear possible. Value: Some current actions may be able to affect the long-term trajectory. Whether these actions should be pursued depends on a mix of empirical and ethical factors. For some ethical frameworks, these actions may be especially important to pursue.

The study of civilization has been a primarily historical enterprise, and secondarily a sociological enterprise. This historical and sociological approach to the study of civilization has not been sufficient for understanding civilization as a distinctive phenomenon. Civilization needs to be studied as a sui generis object of scientific knowledge. Ten imperatives for approaching civilization in this way are outlined, which touch upon scientificity, interdisciplinarity, the definition of civilization, temporality, concepts specific to civilization, thought experiments, theoretical models, formality, regulative principles, and scholarly institutions. If civilization has a future, i.e., if it does not succumb to existential risk, civilization then has before it an expansive future with few intrinsic limits. Our knowledge of cosmology and of the history of the universe points to plentiful energy and material resources that could be exploited by any civilization possessing a sufficiently advanced technology, and these cosmological conditions should prevail for several billion years. Restricting ourselves to obvious extrapolations of civilization as we know it, supervening upon life as we know it, civilization appears to become more robust as it matures, experiencing fewer lapses of shorter duration and less loss of heritage, so that once a civilization has established multiple independent centers beyond its homeworld, there is no reason to limit its extent in space and time except for the limits of energy and material resources exploitable by such a civilization. The path from civilization to supercivilization 1 is not inevitable, but also not impossible. When the first starship departs from our solar system with human beings bound for another star, we will begin the process of the expansion of terrestrial civilization to other planetary systems. An interstellar civilization will come into being at this time. Before this happens, civilization will have expanded beyond Earth, making the entirety of the solar system its home, using the plentiful energy and material resources nearby Earth. Already at this stage of development, civilization will have established multiple independent centers of spacefaring civilization, though still clustered closely around the sun like moths fluttering around a candle flame. The interstellar expansion that would follow upon this buildout of a spacefaring civilization within our solar system would extend these multiple independent centers of civilization to multiple stars and their planetary systems,

Humankind may only have a short window of 50 years to become a space-faring civilization, after which time the opportunity to do so may become too difficult or impractical to pursue. Current policies for space exploration and infrastructure development implicitly assume a gradualistic approach to technology, budgets, and mission execution --the common thought has been that there will be plenty of time in humankind's future to become a space-based species, and whatever we are unable to accomplish will be borne by the generations that follow. However, considering natural events, available energy, and human tendencies, the timing to make the most effective effort to achieve multi-planet status might be now, before momentum is lost and we become distracted by Peak Oil and changing energy economies --restarting a space program after such turmoil may be more difficult than would be practical without cheap, storable, high-energy density petroleum. "Space-faring civilization" is defined as an economically profitable space-based economy that demands the presence of humans off-world in order to sustain a high level of prosperity. An initial foothold for a space-based economy that would fit within the 50-year window might include Earth dependence on rare-earth elements or other hard-to-obtain minerals mined from moons or asteroids, or a permanent settlement on another planet. Using published sources, notional mass and energy requirements for a minimal self-sustaining Mars settlement is calculated, and the number of launch vehicles discussed. Setting the launch schedule to match that of current NASA projections, it could take more than 26 years of semi-annual launches to build up such a self-sustaining human settlement --a cost and commitment that has not been acknowledged nor planned for. Considering the time required to establish a multi-planet species, this paper frames the required window of decision that, if not taken, could condemn the species to Earth subject to whatever natural or human-made calamities that endanger single-planet civilizations.

We present an empirical study of the long-term evolution of several social indicators (e.g. human population growth, statistics of deadly quarrels, diffusion of democratic systems, etc.). We assume that the human species emerge, develop and become extinct with similar evolutionary patterns that other terrestrial species. We propose that the long-term indicators are showing some sort of macro-transition in their long-term behavior that we defined as “Technological Adolescent Age.” We present an estimation of this period. Assuming the “Principle of Mediocrity” and using the Drake Equation we calculate a lower threshold for the number of technological civilizations in the galaxy.

2007

Civilization cannot sustain an exponential growth for long time even when neglecting numerous laws of physics! In this paper, we examine what are fundamental obstacles to long term survival of a civilization and its possibility to colonize the Galaxy. Using the solar system as a reference, resources available for sustained growth are analyzed. Using this information, we will explore the probability of discovering a civilization at its different stage of energy evolution as estimating some possible value of L, the typical life time of an extra-terrestrial civilization.

Budapest. Internet:< http://longfuture. inno. bme. hu/ …, 2003

The emergence of the physical eschatology in the last decades led to an opportunity to ask questions about the fate of our Universe from a cosmologist's point of view and to study mankind's possible future on a cosmological scale, while we can define some theoretical limits of a civilization's possible developments.

Zenodo (CERN European Organization for Nuclear Research), 2022

There will come a time when humans will be able to control the ageing process and perhaps even prevent death. Through genetic engineering and CRISPR technology, developments are afoot to eventually allow humanity to achieve the seemingly impossible, immortality. Multiple future pathways are feasible to achieve this pursuit, including those based on AI, man-machine interfacing, brain implantation, partial cloning and transplant procedures, the human connectome project, and soul/consciousness quantum storage and processing systems. As technology becomes increasingly more sophisticated, and humanity expands into the cosmos, the progression of these projects will induce significant changes to human functioning and human civilisation. The impossible will become a daily reality. This will potentially create new opportunities for individual growth and development, financial incentivization and investment, social programs to improve public services and education, and fantastical ways in which personal relationships will be developed and maintained. However, ethical concerns will preside over new forms of crime, known as consciousness crimes. New forms of law enforcement and social regulation will be essential to stem the tide of social discordance and potential implosion. Instances of mental illness will dramatically increase, placing further strain on pandemic stricken global health services. There are three viable eventualities that will transpire in reference to these current and prospective developments. Firstly, life extension methods through the genetic manipulation of telomerase will unleash a mutated cancer pandemic upon the world (and/or worlds), which will intensify pre-existing deleterious environmental and socioeconomic processes that are potentially leading to human extinction. Secondly, initial social issues will be remedied, and an immortal future version of humanity fuelled by renewable energy technology will develop, eventually reaching a state of enhanced consciousness that will facilitate a peaceful, cooperative interplanetary society. Thirdly, this second scenario will be partially actualised, yet immortality will not render humanity immune to its animalistic competitiveness and violent proclivities, leading to a warring galactic civilisation. Immortality will force humanity to develop an interplanetary presence, where it will become the cosmic equivalent of a plague of locusts or a force of technological and existential progress. However, due to the complex ambivalence of human nature, it is highly likely both these eventualities will transpire, creating a fragile and potentially catastrophic psycho-social equilibrium that could prove disastrous for potentially extant life throughout the galaxy.

A series of independent calculations done by scientists from various countries and professions show that the 21st century is expected to be crucial for the human history. Current generations' activities will determine how exactly the turning point will happen and what direction the subsequent evolution will go. From time immemorial, the relative sustainability of human communities (from primitive tribes to nations, social classes or world confessions) has been provided by the image of a common enemy. Inter-group conflicts have been abridging in-group violence and with it, have been setting the vector for the creation of life's meanings. Yet, the current level of technological development completed by blurring lines both between war and non-war technologies and between the conditions of peace and war has made this psychological inertia suicidal. Therefore, the problem of life's meanings is becoming the nucleus of the 21 st century global problems: Will the human mind prove ready to develop strategic meanings beyond religious or quasi-religious ideologies, which are always built on, the " them-us " mental matrix? Insights of great philosophers and prophets, as well as special socio-psychological experiments and some crucial episodes in political history have demonstrated that besides the image of a common enemy, both human solidarity and strategic meanings can be built on the image of a common cause (not aimed at an enemy agent), although the experience of assimilating this kind of construct by the mass consciousness is scanty. Instead, historical evidence is abundant showing that after long periods without real or potential wars, life's meanings " hang up " and the masses feel nostalgia for new demons. Actually, we observe an intensification of this trend in many regions of our planet accompanied by a growing instability in global geopolitics.

International Journal of Humanities and Social Science Invention (IJHSSI) ISSN (Online): 2319 – 7722, ISSN (Print): 2319 – 7714 www.ijhssi.org ||Volume 9 Issue 7 Ser. II || July 2020 || PP 10-13, 2020

In an article published on the BBC website, referring to a set of criteria – a civilization would correspond to a society with agriculture, multiple cities, military dominance in its geographical region and a continuous political structure –, Luke Kemp (Cambridge University) identifies a series of civilizations over the period 3000BC-600 and presents data on their life span. According to Kemp’s calculation, the average duration of a civilization is 336 years. In addition, the author considers the factors that may contribute to the collapse of civilizations – climate change, environmental degradation, social and political factors, complexity, external shocks, random events, etc. He also asks a key-question – What can this tell us about the future of global modern civilization? Another data base covering 74 civilizations is proposed by Larry Freeman (Kenwood Academy, Chicago), who reports 349 and 330 years as average and median values. Relying on these data sets, we propose new calculations and an elementary linear regression analysis. Moreover, we underline some of the limitations of our exercise and the need for further discussions on the meaning of civilization for the identification of past and existing civilizations.