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2006, Defence and Peace Economics
AI
This paper examines the evolution of deterrence policy from the Cold War era to the modern context of the War on Terror, highlighting the role of economic theory and game theory in shaping military strategies. It distinguishes between deterring state actors and non-state terrorist groups, positing that while the former can be approached similarly to Cold War deterrence, the latter presents unique challenges. The authors argue for a nuanced understanding of deterrence in the face of modern threats, suggesting that failure in deterrence may not yield as catastrophic consequences as in the past, provided that fear does not dominate policy.
Naval War College Review, 2011
With a few brief exceptions, the concept of deterrence has guided U.S. nuclear policy since 1946, the year that Bernard Brodie noted that the purpose of militaries had changed from fighting to deterring wars. Nevertheless, a small but persistent group of deterrence pessimists remain skeptical about many of the policies prompted by this so-called nuclear revolution, especially the U.S. decision in the 1960s to abandon any serious effort at damage limitation by forgoing amissile-defense program. In their view, deterrence is an incredibly risky way to guarantee national survival, because it ultimately turns over decisions about national existence to one’s opponents, who are assumed to be both rational and risk averse. In their view, it would be better to have the capacity to deny one’s opponents the ability to attack in the first place than to rely on the threat of punishment in retaliation for aggressive behavior.
The role of ideas – understood as roadmaps for policy decisions – is a cornerstone of the ongoing debate between reflexivist and rationalist, interest-based explanations of policy making. Cases supporting the reflexivist argument often feature crisis events after which new ideas swept away old policy ideas and interests alike, the epitome being the rise of Keynesianism after World War II. Unlike economic policy, national security policy is a ”hard case” for theorizing as there seems to be little or no room for ideas in determining policies that are designed to further the national interest. National security seems bureaucratic, materialist, rational and interest-based. The field of deterrence strategy offers an interesting exception: faced with the policy vacuum the development of nuclear weapons introduced (the nuclear revolution) the US military turned to civilian scientists to construct policies that were previously the exclusive domain of soldiers. These experts, relying on the authority of the scientific method en lieu of practical knowledge proposed concepts that form the backbone of deterrence theorizing. Despite, in Emanuel Adler’s words, the imaginary aspects of nuclear theory, these ideas became reified concepts of traditional security thinking as nuclear deterrence strategy gradually became synonymous with security policy-making. What is curious is that the naturality of these ideas remains unquestioned after the end of the Cold War, and the concepts themselves are transplanted into other issue areas, such as cybersecurity. The paper reconstructs the taken-for-grantedness of deterrence theory through a selection of hallmark RAND research on war limitation in the early 1960s, using a contextual, discursive institutionalist framework. It seeks to answer the question of how the specific construction and institutionalization of these ideas makes them impermeable to criticism despite a clear lack of conformity to the scientific method reified within deterrence theory.
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De Economist, 1987
Decision Analysis, 2011
I n our first article, Joseph B. Kadane discusses "Partial-Kelly Strategies and Expected Utility: Small-Edge Asymptotics." The next article is by Konstantinos V. Katsikopoulos, on "Psychological Heuristics for Making Inferences: Definition, Performance, and the Emerging Theory and Practice." We then move to papers analyzing strategic national defense. In our third article, David J. Caswell, Ronald A. Howard, and M. Elisabeth Paté-Cornell present "Analysis of National Strategies to Counter a Country's Nuclear Weapons Program." Next, Kjell Hausken and Jun Zhuang examine "Governments' and Terrorists' Defense and Attack in a T-Period Game." Finally, Jeryl L. Mumpower analyzes strategy in the sport of squash in "Playing Squash Against Ralph Keeney: Should Weaker Players Always Prefer Shorter Games?" In conclusion, we announce our upcoming special issue on "Games and Decisions in Reliability and Risk."
2020
Currently, we witness a volatile, polarized and destabilizing international security environment that has exposed us to the grey zones of war and peace. Security challenges arising from both hybrid threats and hybrid warfare (both multiple and synchronized threats that aim to target states’ vulnerabilities at different levels covering domains other than military) seem to have held front seat on the global security agenda thereby altering the relevance of nuclear deterrence. Deterrence is generally understood as an ability to dissuade a state from embarking upon a course of action prejudicial to one’s vital security interests, based on demonstrative capability. The nuclear deterrence theory, as propounded by Brodie (Brodie 1946, p. 76), which is grounded in political realism, enriches our thought process to comprehend the potential character of nuclear weapons. The focus of nuclear deterrence was on averting wars through the psychological manipulation of an adversary’s mind. Thus, it...
This text will analyze the paradigm of politics in its particular case - the policy of expanded deterrence of the United States and what was traditionally understood as "containment" in the USSR.
2004
After a half-century of international stability maintained by a strategy of extended nuclear deterrence, we now find ourselves in a new, chaotic and menacing world. Once the smoke and debris of 9/11 cleared, we've embarked upon an odyssey that began when America's defense-planners realized we were up against an adversary that had not been effectively deterred from attacking our homeland. With clarity borne of the horror of that day, America's strategic planners realized the most effective defense against such a foe would be the offense. So instead of deterring aggression, we felt compelled to seize the strategic advantage, and to use force to preempt future attacks.
2015
the deterrence skepticism that emerged in the early 1990s and peaked following al-Qa'eda's 2001 attack on the United States has begun to dissipate. Today, we are, as a community of scholars and practitioners, thinking up new ways to expand and apply deterrence theory to emerging and evolving security environments. That exercise-of expanding deterrence in order to make it relevant for contemporary insecurity-holds both promise and hazards. Promise, because scholars have rightly chosen to question the skeptics who too quickly and unflinchingly accepted deterrence theory's demise. The study of deterring terrorism, for example, really began as a reactionary, post-9/11 research program that questioned the early assertions made by U.S. President George W. Bush, U.S. Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld, U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations John Bolton, and a variety of other political and military leaders, that terrorism and terrorists were altogether undeterrable. 2 Scholars began by simply asking whether this was true. 3 A similar reactive research program emerged to contemplate deterrence and "rogue states." During the 1990s, the debate centered on Saddam Hussein's Iraq, Slobodan Milosovic's Serbia, and Muammar al-Qaddafi's Libya, while today the focus is on deterring nuclear North Korea and (nuclear-aspirant)
International Studies Perspectives, 2000
Four problems plague game-theoretic models in international relations IR!:~1! misspecifying the rules,~2! confusing goals and rational choice, 3! arbitrarily reducing the multiplicity of equilibria, and~4! forsaking backward induction. An alternative approach, theory of moves~TOM!, is discussed and applied to Prisoners' Dilemma and then, more prescriptively, to the Iran hostage crisis of 1979 -80.
2020
Iran’s nuclear research program generates global suspicion and concern. We read news about the possibility of an Israeli or a U.S. attack upon Iranian nuclear facilities. The general idea is that if Iran continues its research, and, say, an Israeli attack occurs, Iran can retaliate. Thus, any potential attacker has to foresee the consequences of its action against Iran. Iran then has to assess the magnitude of costs that deter a potential attacker. Yet, the attacker can guess that Iran has strong incentives to misrepresent its incentives in its will and ability to retaliate. Iran can in turn try to guess whether the attacker takes its stand about retaliation seriously.
Contemporary Security Policy, 2010
James P. Carse in Finite and Infinite Games defines finite a game that is played to win between two exclusive opponents within an established period of time and according to agreed-upon rules. There is one winner and one loser. There is much in international diplomacy that seems to fit this model. Carse introduces a second category that he calls infinite games—games that are played without time constraints or specific rules; the goal is simply to continue the game. The effort to strengthen the relationship between parents and a child might be an example, where the focus is on the relationship rather than exclusive agency, and the goal is to deal effectively with complex situations as they arise. Can this distinction be used productively to theorize the ongoing violence and terror that is consuming Pakistan? This article engages game theory and demonstrates that the Pakistan Army and the Taliban exhibit quite different understandings of and strategies for the ongoing war. It is this difference in understandings that underpins the inability to engage each other and also explains why this war has become protracted.
With the Soviet Union, you did get the sense that they were operating on a model that we could comprehend in terms of, they don't want to be blown up, we don't want to be blown up, so you do game theory and calculate ways to contain.
Conflict Studies: Prevention, Management & Resolution eJournal, 2021
The development of a countervailing nuclear strategy was a salient feature of U.S. national security policy during the 1970s and 1980s. This article sets out the conceptual elements of that strategy and identifies the environmental factors that led to its emergence as the informing principle of the era’s American strategic doctrine. The strategy’s counterforce and nuclear warfighting premises are assessed in terms of their impact on security policy outcomes by analyzing the contending arguments of the leading proponents and critics of intra-war deterrence.
2014
This study surveys and evaluates previous attempts to use game theory to explain the strategic dynamic of the Cuban missile crisis, including, but not limited to, explanations developed in the style of Thomas Schelling, Nigel Howard and Steven Brams. All of the explanations were judged to be either incomplete or deficient in some way. Schelling's explanation is both empirically and theoretically inconsistent with the consensus interpretation of the crisis; Howard's with the contemporary understanding of rational strategic behavior; and Brams' with the full sweep of the events that define the crisis. The broad outlines of a more general explanation that addresses all of the foundational questions associated with the crisis within the confines of a single, integrated, game-theoretic model with incomplete information are laid out.
Journal of Strategic Security, 2020
The potential for hostilities in the 21st Century is not likely to be deterred by a Cold War deterrence strategy. And while nuclear deterrence remains important, regional powers armed with weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and accompanying long-range delivery capabilities are a rising concern. New technological breakthroughs in the space, cyber, and unforeseen realms could also provide asymmetric means of undermining deterrence. Moreover, the effort to achieve strategic stability in this day and age has become increasingly complicated in light of the changing relationship among the great powers. Today’s world has become one of “security trilemmas.” Actions one state takes to defend against another can, in-turn, make a third state feel insecure. There is great need for both nuclear diversity (theater and low-yield weapons) and increased conventional capabilities in the U.S. deterrent force to provide strategic stability in the decades ahead. In sum, we need a deterrence construct tha...
Economies, 2014
This study surveys and evaluates previous attempts to use game theory to explain the strategic dynamic of the Cuban missile crisis, including, but not limited to, explanations developed in the style of Thomas Schelling, Nigel Howard and Steven Brams. All of the explanations were judged to be either incomplete or deficient in some way. Schelling's explanation is both empirically and theoretically inconsistent with the consensus interpretation of the crisis; Howard's with the contemporary understanding of rational strategic behavior; and Brams' with the full sweep of the events that define the crisis. The broad outlines of a more general explanation that addresses all of the foundational questions associated with the crisis within the confines of a single, integrated, game-theoretic model with incomplete information are laid out.
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