Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

Journal of Geophysical Research, 2008

We use the new Goddard Institute for Space Studies Global Climate Middle Atmosphere Model 3 with four different resolutions to investigate various aspects of solar cycle influence on the troposphere/stratosphere system. Three different configurations of sea surface temperatures are used to help determine whether the tropospheric response is due to forcing from above (UV variations impacting the stratosphere) or below (total solar irradiance changes acting through the surface temperature field). The results show that the stratospheric response is highly repeatable and significant. With the more active sun, the annual residual circulation change features relative increased upwelling in the Southern Hemisphere and downwelling in the Northern Hemisphere. Stratospheric west wind increases extend down into the troposphere, especially during Southern Hemisphere winter, and in some runs the jet stream weakens and moves poleward. The predominant tropospheric response consists of warming in the troposphere, with precipitation decreases south of the equator and in the Northern Hemisphere subtropics and midlatitudes, with increases north of the equator especially over southern Asia. The tropospheric response is often not significant, but is fairly robust among the different simulations. These features, which have been reported in observations and other model studies, appear to be driven both from the stratosphere and the surface; nevertheless, they account for only a small percentage of the total variance. More accurate simulations of the solar cycle stratospheric ozone response, the quasi-biennial oscillation, and coupled atmosphere-ocean dynamics are necessary before any conclusions can be deemed definitive.

Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2015

It has been suggested that the Sun may evolve into a period of lower activity over the 21st century. This study examines the potential climate impacts of the onset of an extreme "Maunder Minimum-like" grand solar minimum using a comprehensive global climate model. Over the second half of the 21st century, the scenario assumes a decrease in total solar irradiance of 0.12% compared to a reference Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 experiment. The decrease in solar irradiance cools the stratopause (∼1 hPa) in the annual and global mean by 1.2 K. The impact on global mean near-surface temperature is small (∼−0.1 K), but larger changes in regional climate occur during the stratospheric dynamically active seasons. In Northern Hemisphere wintertime, there is a weakening of the stratospheric westerly jet by up to ∼3-4 m s −1 , with the largest changes occurring in January-February. This is accompanied by a deepening of the Aleutian Low at the surface and an increase in blocking over Northern Europe and the North Pacific. There is also an equatorward shift in the Southern Hemisphere midlatitude eddy-driven jet in austral spring. The occurrence of an amplified regional response during winter and spring suggests a contribution from a top-down pathway for solar-climate coupling; this is tested using an experiment in which ultraviolet (200-320 nm) radiation is decreased in isolation of other changes. The results show that a large decline in solar activity over the 21st century could have important impacts on the stratosphere and regional surface climate.

Space Sci Rev, 2000

The NCEP/NCAR re-analyses of the global data as high as 10hPa have made it possible to examine the influence of the 11-year sunspot cycle on the lower stratosphere over the entire globe. Previously, the signal of the solar cycle had been detected in the temperatures and heights of the stratosphere at 30hPa and below on the Northern Hemisphere by means of a data set from the Freie Universität Berlin. The global re-analyses show that the signal exists on the Southern Hemisphere too, and that it is almost a mirror image of that on the Northern Hemisphere. The largest temperature correlations with the solar cycle move from one summer hemisphere to the other, and the largest height correlations move poleward within each hemisphere from winter to summer. The correlations are weakest over the whole globe in the northern winter. If, however, one divides the data into the winters when the equatorial Quasi-Biennial Oscillation was easterly or westerly, the arctic correlations become positive and large in the west years, but insignificantly small over the rest of the earth. The correlations in the east years are negative in the Arctic but positive in the subtropics and tropics on both hemispheres. The difference between the east and west years in January-February can be ascribed to the fact that the dominant stratospheric teleconnection and the solar influence work in the same direction in the east years but oppose each other in the west years.

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 2008

Two temperature datasets are analyzed for quantifying the 11-year solar cycle effect in the lower stratosphere. The analysis is based on a regression linear model that takes into account volcanic, Arctic Oscillation (AO), Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO) and El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) effects. Under solar maximum conditions, temperatures are generally warmer for low-and mid-latitudes than under solar minimum, with the effect being the strongest in northern summer. At high latitudes, the vortex is generally stronger under solar maximum conditions, with the exception of February and to a lesser extent March in the Northern Hemisphere; associated with this positive signal at high latitudes, there is a significant negative signal at the equator. Observations also suggest that contrary to the beginning of the winter, in February-March, the residual circulation in the Northern Hemisphere is enhanced. A better understanding of the mechanisms at work comes from further investigations using the ERA-40 reanalysis dataset. First, a consistent response in terms of temperature and wind is obtained. Moreover, considering Eliassen-Palm (EP) flux divergence and residual circulation stream functions, we found an increased circulation in the Northern Hemisphere in February during solar maxima, which results in more adiabatic warming at high latitudes and more adiabatic cooling at low latitudes, thus demonstrating the dynamical origin of the response of the low stratosphere to the solar cycle.

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions

Stratosphere–troposphere coupling is investigated in relation to middle atmospheric subtropical jet (MASTJ) variations in boreal winter. An exceptional strengthening of the MASTJ occurred in association with a sudden equatorward shift of the stratospheric polar night jet (PNJ) in early December 2011. This abrupt transformation of the MASTJ and PNJ had no apparent relation to the upward propagation of planetary waves from the troposphere. The impact of this stratospheric event penetrated into the troposphere in two regions: in the north polar region and the tropics. Due to the strong MASTJ planetary waves at higher latitudes were deflected and trapped in the north polar region. Trapping of the planetary waves resulted in amplification of zonal wavenumber 1 component, which appeared in the troposphere as the development of a trough over the Atlantic sector and a ridge over the Eurasian sector. A strong MASTJ also suppressed the equatorward propagation of planetary waves, which resulte...

2022

Twenty six years of MF radar wind measurements made from 1994 to 2019 at Davis Station (68.6*S, 77.9*E) are used to study the mean response of the mesosphere-lower thermosphere to stratospheric warmings in the southern hemisphere. Warming events were detected using Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA)-2 data with a systematic search for reductions in the zonal-mean circulation at 60*S and corresponding increases in polar temperatures. Some 38 events were identified, including the major warmings of 2002 and 2019, with an average of 1 to 2 warmings per year. At the 10 hPa level, the polar cap temperature increases ranged from 5 to 30 K, with a mean value of 11 K, while the zonal wind speed reductions varied between-7 to-43 ms-1, with-1 a mean value of-15 ms. Peak values occurred near 40 km. Warmings occurred mainly between August and October, with a small peak in occurrence in April/May. The MF radar data showed an average reduction in the mesospheric eastward winds of about 5-7 ms-1 at heights near 75 km that occurred some 3-4 days prior to the changes in the stratosphere. Warming events were driven by episodic intensifications in planetary waves amplitudes, with quasi-stationary PW 1 being especially important. Planetary wave Eliassen-Palm flux divergences show a systematic behavior with time and height that is consistent with a poleward residual circulation and downwelling over the pole prior to the warming events and an equatorward flow and upwelling after the peak of the events.

2017

1College of Ocean and Meteorology, Guangdong Ocean University, Zhanjiang, China 2George Mason University, Fairfax, VA, USA 3Cochin University of Science and Technology, Cochin, India 4Key Laboratory of Meteorological Disaster, Ministry of Education/Joint International Research Laboratory of Climate and Environment Change/Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, Nanjing, China 5Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China 6Hampton University, Hampton, VA, USA

Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, 2011

Our fundamental aim is to investigate solar cycle signals in sea level pressure. In order to see if these may relate, especially at high latitudes, to the solar influence on the stratosphere we start by investigating the temperature of the winter polar stratosphere and its dependence on the state of the Sun and the phase of the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO). We find that the choice of pressure level used to define the phase of the QBO is important in determining how the solar and QBO influences appear to act in combination. Informed by this we carry out a multiple linear regression analysis of zonal mean temperatures throughout the lower stratosphere and troposphere. A combined solar*QBO temporal index exhibits strongly in the lower stratosphere, but in much of the troposphere any influence of the QBO, either on its own or coupled to solar effects is much smaller than the pure solar signal. We use a similar approach to analyse sea level pressure (SLP) data, first using a standard QBO time series dating back to 1953. We find at high latitudes that individually the solar and QBO signals are weak but that the compound solar*QBO temporal index shows a significant signal. This is such that combinations of low solar activity with westerly QBO and high solar activity with easterly QBO are both associated with a strengthening in the polar modes; while the opposite combinations coincide with a weakening. By employing a QBO dataset reconstructed back to 1900, we extend the SLP analysis back to that date and also find a robust signal in the surface SAM; though weaker for surface NAM. Our results suggest that solar variability, modulated by the phase of QBO, influences zonal mean temperatures at high latitudes in the lower stratosphere, in the mid-latitude troposphere and sea level pressure near the poles. Thus a knowl

Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics, 2003

Using 9 years (1985)(1986)(1987)(1988)(1989)(1990)(1991)(1992)(1993) data, final stratospheric warmings in the Southern Hemisphere are studied. Interannual variations in the onset date and the temperatures are noted. In 1985 the stratosphere was colder by about 5 K and the wave activity was less. This year the final warming got delayed. In contrast in 1988 the final warming occurred earlier when compared with the mean picture and the wave activity was more. An examination of Eliassen-Palm fluxes showed the important role of planetary waves in the wavemean flow interaction. In the energetics the most spectacular change is the reduction of zonal kinetic energy. Before the warming the energy exchanges were P z ! P e ! K e ! K z P z and after the warming they were P z P e K e ! K z P z . The dramatic reduction of zonal kinetic energy seems to be due to two effects: the reduction in K e ! K z conversion and the weakening of direct meridional circulation.

Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics, 2005

Three independent temperature datasets have been analyzed for quantifying the influence of the 11-year solar cycle modulation of the UV radiation. The datasets used include: US rocketsondes, the OHP lidar, and the global temperature database made by the successive SSU on the NOAA satellites, adjusted and provided by the UK Meteorological Office. These measurements cover the upper stratosphere and the mesosphere, where the direct photochemical effect is expected. The improvement of the analysis compared to previous ones was possible because the overall quality and the continuity of many data series have been checked more carefully during the last decade in order to look for anthropogenic fingerprints and the one used here have been recognized as the best series according to their temporal continuity. The analysis of the different data set is based on the same regression linear model. The 11-year solar temperature response observed presents a variable behavior, depending on the location. However, an overall adequate agreement among the results has been obtained, and thus the global picture of the solar impact in the upper stratosphere and lower mesosphere has been obtained and is presented here. In the tropics, a 1-2 K positive response in the mid and upper stratophere has been found, in agreement with photochemical theory and previous analyses. On the opposite, at mid-latitudes, negative responses of several Kelvin have been observed, during winters, in the analyses of the datasets analyzed here. In the mesosphere, at sub-tropic and mid-latitude regions, we observe a positive response all the year round increasing by a factor of two during winter. r