Economic survey Vol

01 This year's Economic Survey comes at a time of unusual volatility in the international economic environment. Markets have begun to swing on fears that the global recovery may be faltering, while risks of extreme events are rising. Amidst this gloomy landscape, India stands out as a haven of stability and an outpost of opportunity. Its macro-economy is stable, founded on the government's commitment to fiscal consolidation and low inflation. Its economic growth is amongst the highest in the world, helped by a reorientation of government spending toward needed public infrastructure. These achievements are remarkable not least because they have been accomplished in the face of global headwinds and a second successive season of poor rainfall. The task now is to sustain them in an even more difficult global environment. This will require careful economic management. As regards monetary and liquidity policy, the benign outlook for inflation, widening output gaps, the uncertainty about the growth outlook and the over-indebtedness of the corporate sector all imply that there is room for easing. Fiscal consolidation continues to be vital, and will need to maintain credibility and reduce debt, in an uncertain global environment, while sustaining growth. On the government's " reform-to-transform " agenda, a series of measures, each incremental but collectively meaningful have been enacted. There have also been some disappointments— especially the Goods and Services Tax—which need to be retrieved going forward. Accelerated structural reforms at the Centre, the dynamism of competitive federalism, and good economics being good politics could all combine to maintain the fundamental promise that is India. For now, but not indefinitely, the sweet spot created by a strong political mandate but, recalibrated to take account of a weaker external environment, is still beckoningly there.

01 Against the backdrop of robust macroeconomic stability, the year was marked by two major domestic policy developments, the passage of the Constitutional amendment, paving the way for implementing the transformational Goods and Services Tax (GST), and the action to demonetise the two highest denomination notes. The GST will create a common Indian market, improve tax compliance and governance, and boost investment and growth; it is also a bold new experiment in the governance of India's cooperative federalism. Demonetisation has had short-term costs but holds the potential for long-term benefits. Follow-up actions to minimize the costs and maximise the benefits include: fast, demand-driven, remonetisation; further tax reforms, including bringing land and real estate into the GST, reducing tax rates and stamp duties; and acting to allay anxieties about over-zealous tax administration. These actions would allow growth to return to trend in 2017-18, following a temporary decline in 2016-17. Looking further ahead, societal shifts in ideas and narratives will be needed to overcome three long-standing meta-challenges: inefficient redistribution, ambivalence about the private sector and property rights, and improving but still-challenged state capacity. In the aftermath of demonetisation, and at a time of gathering gloom about globalisation, articulating and embracing those ideational shifts will be critical to ensuring that India's sweet spot is enduring not evanescent.

Asia Maior, 2018

In 2018, India’s internal evolution was characterised, at the political level, by two main developments, both a continuation of trends already visible the previous year. The first was the weakening of Modi’s aura of invincibility, epitomised by a string of defeats suffered by the BJP in that year’s state elections. The second was the alarming continuation in the erosion of democracy, highlighted, among other negative processes, by the attack on the independence of key state institutions, such as the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) and the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI). At the economic level the situation was characterised by the apparent recovery of the economy, after the difficulties experienced in 2017. However doubts emerged that this recovery was more apparent than real, as it was the result of untrustworthy government-released figures. Even accepting at face value these dubious figures, the fact remains that India’s economic growth – whatever its real dimension may have been – appeared unable to resolve a set of major socio-economic problems, in particular the insufficient rate of job-creation and the ongoing agrarian crisis.

In 2014-15, the Indian economy is poised to overcome the sub-5 per cent growth of gross domestic product (GDP) witnessed over the last two years. The growth slowdown in the last two years was broad based, affecting in particular the industry sector. Inflation too declined during this period, but continued to be above the comfort zone, owing primarily to the elevated level of food inflation. Yet, the developments on the macro stabilization front, particularly the dramatic improvement in the external economic situation with the current account def icit (CAD) declining to manageable levels after two years of worryingly high levels was the redeeming feature of 2013-14. The f iscal def icit of the Centre as a proportion of GDP also declined for the second year in a row as per the announced medium term policy stance. Reflecting the above and the expectations of a change for the better, f inancial markets have surged. Moderation in inflation would help ease the monetary policy stance and revive the conf idence of investors, and with the global economy expected to recover moderately, particularly on account of performance in some advanced economies, the economy can look forward to better growth prospects in 2014-15 and beyond.

EY Economy Watch - September 2024, 2024

Economy Watch provides an in-depth review of salient developments in India’s macroeconomy and economic policy in a global context. It has established itself as a thought leadership publication, providing valuable inputs for policymakers in the central and state governments, academicians, industry and businesses and other stakeholders.

Change is one of the basic characteristics of nature itself. Peoples, organizations, nations and their socioeconomic and political philosophies have been constantly changing. India, after experiencing abject poverty under foreign yoke, adopted, after independence, socialist pattern of development that led to tremendous achievements in different fields until the dismemberment of the erstwhile USSR. Thereupon, the process of LPG (liberalization, privatization and globalization) started everywhere in one form or the other. The 1990's and first decade of the 21 st century witnessed overall global prosperity. India achieved remarkable progress during the period but suffered from complacency and oversized confidence as many countries made much more commendable progress on a number of socioeconomic fronts compared to India. A number of books were written on Indian economic potential during the period and the authors, in their over-enthusiasm, depicted India as the imminent economic superpower. During the last five years, particularly after 2008, overconfidence has given way to more sensible and reasonable understanding of the difficulties that still lie ahead for India to harness its full potential. KEY WORDS: Liberalization = Opening market for free competition. Privatization = Allowing private participation in economic sectors. Globalization = Enforcing WTO Regime for Tariffs & Trade. WTO = World Trade Organization. GDP = Gross Domestic Product. Mortality Rate = The umber of deaths in an area in a given period. Forex = Foreign Exchange Demographic bonus = Advantage of having young and working population larger than children and old agers. Immunization-Protection against infection. Change is one of the basic characteristics of the nature itself. Everyone, be it individuals or organizations are subject to change. Even the systems have such subsystems

Vikalpa: The Journal for Decision Makers, 2012

O n 29th November, 2012, the Central Statistical Organization (CSO) came out with an estimate of 5.3 per cent growth for the Indian economy during the second quarter (July-September) of the current fiscal year against the 5.5 per cent growth during the first quarter (April-June). The quick estimate of 5.4 per cent growth of real gross domestic product (GDP) for the first half of the current fiscal year is not a very encouraging figure, though the stock market has taken it favourably. This is because the market might have perceived it as the lower turning point of the current slowdown. At this juncture, addressing questions about the prospects for the Indian economy in the short term, medium term, and long term is critical for individual business and collectively for the national developmental aspi