Overview of Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System

ISPRS International Journal of Geo-Information

During the last two decades, the rapid urbanization movement has increased the concentration of population and buildings in Ulaanbaatar city (UB), Mongolia. There are several active faults around UB. The estimated maximum magnitude of 7 in the Emeelt fault has been expected to significantly impact the UB region because the fault is only 20 km from the city. To consider the disaster mitigation planning for such large earthquakes, assessments of ground shaking intensities and building damage for the scenarios are crucial. In this study, we develop the building inventory data in UB, including structural types, construction year, height, and construction cost in order to assess the buildings’ vulnerability (repair cost) due to a scenario earthquake. The construction costs are estimated based on the procedure of the Mongolian construction code from the coefficients of cost per floor area for each structural type, and coefficients for heating system, floor areas, and buildings’ locations....

Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 2011

This article summarizes the work done over the last decades regarding the development of new approaches and setting up of new applications for earthquake rapid response systems that function to estimate earthquake losses in quasi-real time after an earthquake. After a critical discussion of relevant earthquake loss estimation methodologies, the essential features and characteristics of the available loss estimation software are summarized. Currently operating near-real-time loss estimation tools can be classified under two main categories depending on the size of area they cover: global and local systems. For the global or regional near-real-time loss estimation systems: GDACS, WAPMERR, PAGER, and NERIES-ELER methodologies are presented together with their loss estimations for the 2009 Abruzzo (L'Aquila) earthquake in Italy. Examples are provided for the local rapid earthquake loss estimation systems, including the Taiwan Earthquake Rapid Reporting System, Real-time Earthquake Assessment Disaster System in Yokohama, Real Time Earthquake Disaster Mitigation System of the Tokyo Gas Co., and Istanbul Earthquake Rapid Response System.

Natural Hazards, 2014

Pakistan is an earthquake-prone region due to its tectonic setting resulting in high hazard with moderate-to-strong ground motions and vulnerability of structures and infrastructures, leading to the loss of lives and livelihood, property damage and economic losses. Earthquake-related disaster in Pakistan is a regular and serious threat to the community; however, the country lack tools for earthquake risk reduction through early warning (preearthquake planning), rapid response (prompt response at locations of high risk) and prefinancing earthquake risk (property insurance against disaster). This paper presents models for physical damageability assessment and socioeconomic loss estimation of structures in Pakistan for earthquake-induced ground motions, derived using state-of-the-art earthquake loss estimation methodologies. The methodologies are being calibrated with the site-specific materials and structures response, whereas the derived models are tested and validated against recent observed earthquakes in the region. The models can be used to develop damage scenario for earthquakes (assess damaged and collapsed structures, casualties and homeless) and estimate economic losses, i.e., cost of repair and reconstruction (for a single earthquake event as well as all possible earthquakes). The models can provide help on policy-and decision-making toward earthquake risk mitigation and disaster risk reduction in Pakistan.

Journal of Earthquake Engineering, 2008

2008

A damage estimation exercise has been carried out using the building stock inventory and population database of the Istanbul Metropolitan Municipality and selected European earthquake loss estimation packages: KOERILOSS, SELENA, ESCENARIS, SIGE, and DBELA. The input groundmotions, common to all models, correspond to a ''credible worst case scenario'' involving the rupture of the four segments of the Main Marmara Fault closest to Istanbul in a M w 7.5 earthquake. The aim of the exercise is to assess the applicability of the selected software packages to earthquake loss estimation in the context of rapid post-earthquake response in European urban centers. The results in terms of predicted building damage and social losses are critically compared amongst each other, as well as with the results of previous scenario-based earthquake loss assessments carried out for the study area. The key methodological aspects and data needs for European rapid post-earthquake loss estimation are thus identified.

Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2011

Assessment of expected loss and damage caused by earthquakes and secondary technological accidents are of primary importance for the development and implementation of preventive measure plans, as well as for emergency management just after the disaster. The paper addresses the procedures for estimations of loss caused by strong events and secondary hazards with information technology application. Examples of individual seismic risk zoning at Russian federal and regional levels are given, as well as that of scenario earthquakes consequences estimation, taking into account secondary technological hazards.

Natural Hazards, 2001

The abodes in Costa Rica have almost the same vulnerability as the old civil houses in China, which represent the vulnerability in worst cases. On the other hand, the high quality buildings in Middle East have the same vulnerability as the reinforced concrete buildings in China due to employing the state-of-art-design and construction techniques, which represent the vulnerability of the best cases. The macroeconomic vulnerability is defined as the ratio of physical economic loss caused by earthquake to the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) within a given area. Since the total macroscopic loss is the sum of losses of different types of buildings and facilities, the macroeconomic vulnerability must be greater than that of best cases while less than that of worst cases. In the present paper, the implications of macroeconomic vulnerability to earthquake loss estimate are discussed.

2008

Earthquake loss modelling is a multidisciplinary activity which requires the collection of databases of earthquake activity, ground conditions, ground-motion prediction models, building stock and infrastructure exposure, vulnerability characteristics of the exposed elements, repair costs and human casualties. Each component of the model carries large associated uncertainties which need to be propagated through the analysis, such that the total uncertainty in the resulting loss estimates can be obtained. However, a number of epistemic (i.e. knowledge-based) uncertainties present within a given method are often not accounted for. This paper describes various studies which have looked at the influence of these uncertainties in the loss model results and makes proposals for how these uncertainties could be included in future earthquake loss models.

Natural Hazards, 1997

In the traditional method of earthquake loss estimation, all exposed facilities are classified according to their structural type and/or occupancy. Inventory data is collected and the total loss is estimated as the aggregate of all facility losses from each facility class separately. For many regions of the world, however, the vast amount of data required for this method is difficult or impossible to obtain. The traditional method is also unable to estimate quickly the loss from an unexpected catastrophic earthquake. It is difficult to give the necessary risk information to help the government with rescue and relief after the earthquake disaster. In this paper, we propose a quick and approximate estimation method of earthquake loss based on a macroscopic index of exposure and population distribution from GIS. This method was applied to analyze several earthquake scenarios with World Bank and CIESIN data. The preliminary analysis and comparison results show that our method is effective and reasonable for quick assessment of earthquake risk.

SYNER-G is a European collaborative research project funded by European Commission (Seventh Framework Program, Theme 6: Environment) under Grant Agreement no. 244061. The primary purpose of SYNER-G is to develop an integrated methodology for the systemic seismic vulnerability and risk analysis of buildings, transportation and utility networks and critical facilities, considering for the interactions between different components and systems. The whole methodology is implemented in an open source software tool and is validated in selected case studies. The research consortium relies on the active participation of twelve entities from Europe, one from USA and one from Japan. The consortium includes partners from the consulting and the insurance industry. SYNER-G developed an innovative methodological framework for the assessment of physical as well as socio-economic seismic vulnerability and risk at the urban/regional level. The built environment is modelled according to a detailed taxonomy, grouped into the following categories: buildings, transportation and utility networks, and critical facilities. Each category may have several types of components and systems. The framework encompasses in an integrated fashion all aspects in the chain, from hazard to the vulnerability assessment of components and systems and to the socio-economic impacts of an earthquake, accounting for all relevant uncertainties within an efficient quantitative simulation scheme, and modelling interactions between the multiple component systems. The methodology and software tools are validated in selected sites and systems in urban and regional scale: city of Thessaloniki (Greece), city of Vienna (Austria), harbour of Thessaloniki, gas system of L'Aquila in Italy, electric power network, roadway network and hospital facility again in Italy. The scope of the present series of Reference Reports is to document the methods, procedures, tools and applications that have been developed in SYNER-G. The reports are intended to researchers, professionals, stakeholders as well as representatives from civil protection, insurance and industry areas involved in seismic risk assessment and management.

2008

In order to incorporate seismic risk of facilities into a decision making framework, procedures are needed to quantify such risk for stakeholders. Seismic loss estimation methods combine seismic hazard, structural response, damage fragility, and damage consequences to allow quantification of seismic risk. This paper presents a loss estimation methodology which allows various means of quantifying seismic risk of a specific facility. The methodology is component-based and can therefore distinguish between different structural configurations or different facility contents and is consistent with state-of-the-art loss assessment procedures. Loss is measured in the forms of direct structural and non-structural repair costs, and although not considered in the example, business disruption and occupant casualties can also be considered. This framework has been packaged in a computer code available for future dissemination in the public domain so that users need only to have a basic understanding of the methodology and the input data that is required. Discussion is given to the flexibility of the framework in terms of the rigour which can be employed at each of the main steps in the procedure. Via a case study of a high-rise office building, the use of the methodology in decision-making is illustrated. Methodological requirements and further research directions are discussed.

Journal of Seismology and Earthquake Engineering, 2011

Metropolitan Tehran, as the capital, the economic and political center, and the most populated city in Iran, has a special position in earthquake preparation, mitigation and response. Tehran is vulnerable to earthquakes and is expecting a destructive earthquake with a magnitude greater than 7. In the present paper, the items of hazard analysis, vulnerability assessment, and loss estimation in respect of Tehran are introduced, and the relevant research concerning the category of physical and structural damage is investigated. The results from vulnerability assessment indicate the vulnerability of a major part of the buildings in Tehran. The results from the loss estimation indicate a high percentage of damage in the event of an earthquake in Tehran. Furthermore, based on the loss estimation results, the likely amount of debris generated and possibilities for positioning of the temporary housing are provided. The results emphasize the necessity of short-term, average-term and long-ter...

A preliminary forecast of the type of losses that the New York City area could suffer after an earthquake is the subject of this paper. This research is funded by the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and is coordinated by the Multidisciplinary Center for Earthquake Engineering Research (MCEER). The initial stages of this study involved fact-finding and assessment, with the development of preliminary soil maps and building inventories. The primary objective of this study was to develop an initial risk characterization for Manhattan below 59th Street. Smaller regions within Manhattan and larger tri-State regions are also studied. The vehicle for performing these loss estimations has been a software tool entitled Hazards US (or HAZUS). The Federal Emergency Management Agency, through the National Institute of Building Sciences (NIBS) and RMS, Inc., developed the standardized earthquake loss estimation methodology and computer modelling program HAZUS, which can be used to quantify regional seismic risks and to form the basis for a more coordinated national loss program. The aim of this ongoing loss estimation project is to provide a framework for businesses and agencies to take mitigative action to reduce potential damage and losses which might be experienced in future earthquakes.

I. ABSTRACT Seismic damage simulation and loss estimation is a very important task for the civil protection departments and urban planning policies for earthquake hazard mitigation. Many different software packages have been produced around the world in order to provide accurate loss estimates. Building damage functions for ground shaking include: (1) fragility curves that describe the probability of reaching or exceeding different states of damage given peak building response, and (2) building capacity (pushover) curves that are used (with damping-modified demand spectra) to determine peak building response. For use in lifeline damage evaluation, a separate set of building fragility curves expresses the probability of structural damage in terms of peak ground acceleration (PGA). Damage is described by one of four

The ground shaking intensity used for calculating the quasi-static forces to be applied in building design according to the National Building Code of Canada (NBCC) is established by probabilistic seismic hazard analyses. The probability level for which the amplitudes of design motions are determined in the current building code, NBCC-1995, corresponds to a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years. The insurance industry has funded loss estimation studies at the University of British Columbia for a number of cities in British Columbia, including the largest, Vancouver. This city has the highest seismic hazard among the three most populated urban centres in Canada. A major objective of the studies was to provide a rational basis for discussions with government on how to cope with catastrophic losses in the region. For this reason, it was considered appropriate to use the same probability of exceedance of shaking intensity as that used in NBCC-1995. The seismic provisions of the next edition of the code, NBCC-2005, will be based on a probability level corresponding to a 2% chance of exceedance in 50 years. This paper investigates the impact of this change on the loss estimations for Vancouver. The concepts and strategies used in the Vancouver study are of wide applicability and should be of interest to others engaged in risk assessment.