Probability and uncertainty: the legacy of Georgescu-Roegen

Quelle: HHL-Arbeitspapier, 2005

Decision-making Process, 2009

2019

The present contribution examines the emergence of expected utility theory by John von Neumann and Oskar Morgenstern, the subjective the expected utility theory by Savage, and the problem of choice under risk and uncertainty, focusing in particular on the seminal work “The Utility Analysis of Choices involving Risk" (1948) by Milton Friedman and Leonard Savage to show how the evolution of the theory of choice has determined a separation of economics from psychology.

Annals of Operations Research, 1989

This overview focuses on lexicographic choice under conditions of uncertainty. First, lexicographic versions of traditional (von Neumann-Morgenstern) expected utility theory are described where the usual Archimedean axiom is weakened. The role of these lexicographic variants in explaining some well-known "paradoxes" of choice theory is reviewed. Next, the significance of lexicographic choice for game theory is discussed. Finally, some lexicographic extensions of the classical maximin decision rule are described.

Theory and Decision, 2010

In this paper Savage's theory of decision-making under uncertainty is extended from a classical environment into a non-classical one. The Boolean lattice of events is replaced by an arbitrary ortho-complemented poset. We formulate the corresponding axioms and provide representation theorems for qualitative measures and expected utility. Then, we discuss the issue of beliefs updating and investigate a transition probability model. An application to a simple game context is proposed.

Social Science Research Network, 2000

2006

In this paper, Knight's distinction between risk and uncertainty, and its significance for economic analysis are examined. The paper consists of a survey of some recent developments on the theory of choice under uncertainty and some applications of these theories to problems for which Bayesian Decision Theory has not proved entirely satisfactory. Two problems are examined in detail. The first is that of finance and insurance and the second is that of risktaking behaviour with special emphasis on lotteries.

History of political economy, 2001

The Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance Theory, 1991

The contents of this book are quite larger than its title indicates. In fact, the book deals with the foundations of the notions of uncertainty and of probability (or, more generally, of uncertainty measures) in Part I and Part IV; with the applications of these concepts in several areas and with the social responsibility they imply, in Part II; and essentially in Part III with the acting under uncertainty properly defined.

The European Journal of the History of Economic Thought, 2018