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Mobility, risk tolerance and competence to manage risks

2013, Journal of Risk Research

Abstract

Migration is a risky behaviour because of uncertainty about future wages, living conditions, changing relationships with family and friends and cultural adjustment. Migration researchers recognize the importance of risk and uncertainty but mostly have approached this as a form of 'rational' decision making, rather than in terms of how behavioural economics analyses 'irrational' risky behaviours such as drinking, smoking or participating in dangerous sports. The rationalist approaches explain why some groups of individuals are more likely than others to migrate, but find it difficult to explain individual variations in behaviour within these groups. Individual migrants versus non migrants are self-selected in terms of tolerance of risk and uncertainty but, with very few exceptions, there has been no research on migration within the framework of risk tolerance/aversion and competence to manage risk. Moreover, existing research is based on, and constrained by the limitations of, incumbent data sets. Drawing on a specially commissioned large-scale survey of the UK population, this paper uses principal components and logistic regression to analyse the extent to which risk and risk-related measures can be used to predict four different types of mobility profiles. There is evidence of significant associations with general risk/uncertainty tolerance, and 2 competence-based tolerance. These are strongest in terms of the two most polarised mobility types: the least mobile, the Stayers, and the most mobile, the Roamers.