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2001, Economic Theory
In a game with rational expectations, individuals simultaneously refine their information with the information revealed by the strategies of other individuals. At a Nash equilibrium of a game with rational expectations, the information of individuals is essentially symmetric: the same profile of strategies is also an equilibrium of a game with symmetric information; and strategies are common knowledge. If each player has a veto act, which yields a minimum payoff that no other profile of strategies attains, then the veto profile is the only Nash equilibrium, and it is is an equilibrium with rational expectations and essentially symmetric information; which accounts for the impossibility of speculation.
2000
In a game with rational expectations individuals refine their information with the information revealed by the strategies of other individuals: their elementary acts of other individuals at each state of the world. At a Nash of a game with rational expectations, the information of individuals is essentially symmetric: the same profile is also an equilibrium of a game with symmetric information; and their acts are common knowledge. If each player has a veto act, which yields a minimum payoff that no other profile of strategies attains, then the veto profile is the only Nash equilibrium, and it is an equilibrium with rational expectations and essentially symmetric information; which accounts for the impossibility of speculation.
1993
In a game with rational expectations individuals refine their information with the information revealed by the acts of other individuals. We show that, at a Nash equilibrium of a game with rational expectations, the information of individuals is essentially symmetric, and their acts are common knowledge. JEL classification number: D82.
Games and Economic Behavior, 1996
Economic Theory, 1999
We examine price formation in a simple static model with asymmetric information, an infinite number of risk neutral traders and no noise traders. Here we re-examine four results associated with rational expectations models relating to the existence of fully revealing equilibrium prices, the advantage of becoming informed, the costly acquisition of information, and the impossibility of having equilibrium prices with higher volatility than the underlying fundamentals.
2003
For the reflexive game where the agents make decisions on the basis of a hierarchy of beliefs about the fundamental parameters, beliefs about beliefs, and so on, a concept of information equilibrium was proposed which is a generalization of the Nash equilibrium in the noncooperative games.
Research in Economics, 2007
We adopt an interactive epistemology perspective to analyse dynamic games with partially unknown payoff functions. We consider solution procedures that iteratively delete strategies conditional on private information about the state of nature. In particular we focus on a weak and a strong version of the ∆-rationalizability solution concept, where ∆ represents given restrictions on players' beliefs about state of nature and strategies . Rationalizability in infinite, dynamic games of incomplete information. Research in Economics 57, 1-38; Battigalli, P., Siniscalchi, M., 2003. Rationalization and incomplete information. Advances in Theoretical Economics 3 (Article 3). http://www.bepress.com/bejte/advances/vol3/iss1/art3]. We first show that weak ∆-rationalizability is characterized by initial common certainty of rationality and of the restrictions ∆, whereas strong ∆-rationalizability is characterized by common strong belief in rationality and the restrictions ∆ (cf. . Strong belief and forward induction reasoning. Journal of Economic Theory 106, 356-391]). The latter result allows us to obtain an epistemic characterization of the iterated intuitive criterion. Then we use the framework to analyse the robustness of complete-information rationalizability solution concepts to the introduction of "slight" uncertainty about payoffs. If the set of conceivable payoff functions is sufficiently large, the set of strongly rationalizable strategies with slight payoff uncertainty coincides with the set of complete-information, weakly rationalizable strategies.
Journal of Economic Theory, 2007
We study the effect of communication in two-person games of incomplete information. We show that for any two-player game of incomplete information, any rational mediated communication mechanism outcome (satisfying a Nash domination condition) can be implemented as the perfect Bayesian equilibrium of a cheap-communication extension of the original game.
Journal of Mathematical Economics, 1996
In an economy with asymmetric information, rational expectations equilibria (REE) need not become asymptotically incentive compatible, even if many independent replicas of the economy are merged together. We identify a sub-class of REE for which this is nevertheless the case. It consists of those REE which are focused-where close prices obtain in close state-wise posterior economies; and where the prices are rounded to whole "cents", so that very close exact prices cannot be distinguished. In this class of REE, the informational power of each agent does diminish as more and more similar agents join the market. In the limit economy with a continuum of replicas, the informational power of each individual is nullified completely in focused REE.
Handbook of Game Theory with Economic Applications, 2015
Philosophy of Information, 2008
International Journal of Game Theory
Doxastic characterizations of the set of Nash equilibrium outcomes and of the set of backward-induction outcomes are provided for general perfectinformation games (where there may be multiple backward-induction solutions). We use models that are behavioral, rather than strategy-based, where a state only specifies the actual play of the game and not the hypothetical choices of the players at nodes that are not reached by the actual play. The analysis is completely free of counterfactuals and no belief revision theory is required, since only the beliefs at reached histories are specified.
Studia Logica 86, 3, 2007, 353-373. Special issue on formal epistemology, edited by B. Fitelson
I consider generalisations of the Nash equilibrium concept based on the idea that in equilibrium the players' beliefs should not be contradicted, even if they could possibly be incorrect. This possibility depends on the information about opponents' behaviour available to the players in equilibrium. Therefore the players' information is crucial for this notion of equilibrium, called Conjectural Equilibrium in general and Rationalizable Conjectural Equilibrium (Rubinstein-Wolinsky 1994) when the game and the players' Bayesian rationality are common knowledge. In this paper I argue for a refinement of Rationalizable Conjectural Equilibrium showing by propositions and by examples how this equilibrium notion works and how the suitable equilibrium concept depends on the players' information. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: C72, D83, D82.
Games and Economic Behavior, 2013
Aumann (1995) showed that for games with perfect information common knowledge of substantive rationality implies backward induction. Substantive rationality is defined in epistemic terms, that is, in terms of knowledge. We show that when substantive rationality is defined in doxastic terms, that is, in terms of belief, then common belief of substantive rationality implies backward induction. Aumann (1998) showed that material rationality implies backward induction in the centipede game. This result does not hold when rationality is defined doxastically. However, if beliefs are interpersonally consistent then common belief of material rationality in the centipede game implies common belief of backward induction.
Journal of Economic Theory, 1999
In a self-confirming equilibrium, each player correctly forecasts the actions that opponents will take along the equilibrium path, but may be mistaken about the way that opponents would respond to deviations. This paper develops a refinement of self-confirming equilibrium in which players use information about opponents' payoffs in forming beliefs about the way that opponents play off of the equilibrium path. We show that this concept is robust to payoff uncertainty. We also discuss its relationship to other concepts, and show that it is closely related to assuming almost common certainty of payoffs in an epistemic model with independent beliefs. Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers C72, D84.
2002
The purpose of this article is to investigate epistemic conditions for a sequential equilib-rium in an extensive form game with imperfect information: If players mutually know that all players maximize their own expected payoffs at any information sets in their final decisions then their behaviors with belief yield a sequential equilibrium. This result is an extension of Aumann (1995, Games and Economic Behavior, 8:6-19) in a perfect infor-mation game. In this article, we propose the notion of µ-rationality, by which we mean that player knows that he maximizes his own payoff according to the common-belief µ. Furthermore we introduce the notion of µ-consistency in imperfect information game. Our main theorem states that mutual knowledge of both µ-rationality and µ-consistency induces a sequential equilibrium outcome in an extensive form game.
ICM Millennium Lectures on Games, 2003
The purpose of this article is to investigate epistemic conditions for a sequential equilibrium in an extensive form game with imperfect information: If players mutually know that all players maximize their own expected payoffs at any information sets in their final decisions then their behaviors with belief yield a sequential equilibrium. This result is an extension of Aumann (1995, Games and Economic Behavior, 8:6-19) in a perfect information game. In this article, we propose the notion of µ-rationality, by which we mean that player knows that he maximizes his own payoff according to the common-belief µ. Furthermore we introduce the notion of µ-consistency in imperfect information game. Our main theorem states that mutual knowledge of both µ-rationality and µ-consistency induces a sequential equilibrium outcome in an extensive form game.
Economics Letters, 1978
A concept of informational equilibrium is discussed based on the idea that each economic agent views himself as facing a Markovian decision problem. The case of differential information is considered. This definition is related to those found in general equilibrium theory and in the theory of stochastic games.
Fundamenta Informaticae, 2016
This paper treats subgroup Nash equilibriums which concept is given as an extension of Nash equilibrium of a strategic game with non-partitional information, and addresses the problem how to reach the equilibrium by communication through messages according to network among players. A subgroup Nash equilibrium of a strategic game consists of (1) a subset S of players, (2) independent mixed strategies for each member of S together with (3) the conjecture of the actions for the other players outside S provided that each member of S maximizes his/her expected payoff according to the product of all mixed strategies for S and the conjecture about other players’ actions. Suppose that the players have a reflexive and transitive informationwith a common prior distribution, and that each player in a subgroup S predicts the other players’ actions as the posterior of the others’ actions given his/her information. He/she communicates privately his/her belief about the other players’ actions through messages to the recipient in S according to the communication network in S.We show that in the pre-play communication according to the revision process of their predictions about the other players’ actions, their future predictions converges to a subgroup Nash equilibrium of the game in the long run.
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