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A risk assessment of threats to Maui's dolphins

Abstract

Maui’s dolphin (Cephalorhynchus hectori maui) is a subspecies of Hector’s and Maui’s dolphin (Cephalorhynchus hectori) and is endemic to New Zealand. Maui’s dolphin is listed as ‘critically endangered’ on the IUCN’s Red List of threatened species and ‘nationally critical’ in the New Zealand Threat Classification System. Current population estimates indicate that about 55 Maui’s dolphins over 1 year of age remain, and the population is exposed to a range of human- and non-human-induced threats. A risk assessment workshop was held in June 2012 with the purpose of identifying, analysing and evaluating all threats to Maui’s dolphins. The risk assessment scoring was conducted by an expert panel of domestic and international specialists in marine mammal science and ecological risk assessment. The method for the risk assessment involved five key steps: defining Maui’s dolphin distribution, threat identification, threat characterisation including the spatial distribution of the threat, threat scoring, and quantitative analysis. The panel’s scores combined for all identified threats suggested a broad range of plausible values for human-induced Maui’s dolphin mortalities over the next 5 years (a median of 5.27 dolphins per annum with 95% of the distribution of scores being between 0.97 and 8.40 dolphins per annum). The panel attributed 95.5% of these mortalities to commercial, recreational, customary or illegal fishing-related activities combined, and the remaining 4.5% to non-fishing-related threats. Despite this uncertainty, the panel’s scores indicate high confidence that total human-induced mortality is higher than the population can sustain. Population projections based on the panel’s estimated total mortalities indicate a 95.7% likelihood that the population will decline if threats remain at current levels (i.e. as at the time of the workshop and prior to the introduction of interim measures). estimated total human-induced Maui’s dolphin mortalities equate to a level of impact that is many times higher than the estimated Potential Biological Removals (PBR; a median of 75.5 times PBR, with 95% of the distribution of estimates being between 12.4 and 150.7 times PBR). The risk assessment method assessed the cumulative impact and associated population risk posed by all threats combined and also disaggregated the impacts of the respective threats, to identify those threats that pose the greatest risk to the dolphins. It also identified several threats that may have a low likelihood, but which, given the small population size of Maui’s dolphins, nonetheless may have detrimental consequences for the population.