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2011
Safety management and risk profiling to identify substandard ships are of importance to the shipping industry. Whereas current methods rely heavily on detention risk and flag state performance, we extend the risk assessment by considering various risk dimensions and by evaluating a wide range of risk factors. Apart from detention risk, we consider also the risk of various types of
Maritime Policy & Management
Inspections play a key role in keeping vessels safe. Inspection authorities employ different policies to decide which vessels to inspect, including type of vessel, age, and flag. Attention for vessel history is usually restricted only to past detentions. This paper demonstrates that the correlation between the probabilities of detention and (very serious and serious) incidents is very low and that proactive prevention of future incidents is improved by accounting for both risk dimensions, that is, by combining past incident and detention information for targeting highrisk vessels for inspection. Five combined methods are presented to classify vessels based on these two risk dimensions, each of which involves extensive sets of factors. These combined classification methods have predictive power for future incidents. Depending on the applied inspection rate, incorporation of incident risk improves inspection hit rates for vessels with future incidents by 30-50% compared to using only detention information. It is recommended to focus on vessels where both risks are relatively high. A practical example shows how the methods can be applied for inspection selection and for prioritizing inspection areas defined in terms of eight risk domains that include collisions, groundings, engine and hull failures, loss of life, fire, and pollution.
WMU Journal of Maritime Affairs, 2007
The Paris Memorandum of Understanding (Paris MoU) has defined criteria aimed at better targeting of ships for Port State Control inspections. These criteria are mostly based on ship detentions or deficiencies. Another approach proposed in this paper is based on the concept of risk, combining in various ways the probability of the occurrence of casualties and the potential consequences of such occurrences. These measures are to help identify High Risk Vessels (HRV) and to inspect them accordingly. The aim of this paper is to present methods used and results obtained in research into the use of the "Risk Concept" in selecting HRV for inspection. The research was carried out in the framework of the European project MarNIS of the 6 th Framework Program. To improve in the short term the current vessel-targeting system, it is proposed-as a first step-to combine the criteria used in this study (based on the three static physical ship variables: type, size and age)with the Paris MoU list of criteria restricted only to the flag, Recognized Organization and company of the vessel.
Engineering, Technology & Applied Science Research, 2017
Risk assessment is a well-developed field which many operators are currently applying to improve their operations and reduce their risk exposure. This paper is intended to provide an overview of the risk assessment for mariners in the Maritime transportation. The risks addressed are primarily those affecting the safety of a vessel, facility or operation. The concept of risk is defined, and the methods available to assess the risks associated with an operation are described. Regulatory requirements that have prompted the development of modern risk assessment practices are described, and future regulatory trends are discussed. There are many different analysis techniques and models that have been developed to aid in conducting risk assessments. A key to any successful risk analysis is choosing the right method (or combination of methods) for the situation at hand. This is achieved through critical analysis of the available data concerning marine crises. This paper provides a brief int...
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2014
This paper develops a new quantitative safety index for each worldwide sea-going vessel based on their condition information and safety records. The safety index can generate a relative risk score using binary logistic regression method and a dataset with both static and dynamic information covering over 90% of the world sea-going merchant fleet. It has a widely potential usage for both industry and academic research, e.g., for port authorities to determine whether an on board inspection is needed; for insurers to determine premium rate; and for shipowners to identify functional areas for repair and maintenance.
Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 2001
A review is presented of different approaches to quantify the risk in maritime transportation. The discussion of several accident statistics provides a global assessment of the risk levels and its differentiation in ship types and main types of ship losses. Early studies in the probability of ship loss by foundering and capsizing are reviewed. The approaches used to assess the risk of structural design are addressed. Finally a brief account is given of recent development of using formal safety assessments to support decision making on legislation applicable internationally to maritime transportation. q
Maritime Business Review
PurposeContainer shipping is a crucial component of the global supply chain that is affected by a large range of operational risks with high uncertainty, threatening the stability of service, manufacture, distribution and profitability of involved parties. However, quantitative risk analysis (QRA) of container shipping operational risk (CSOR) is being obstructed by the lack of a well-established theoretical structure to guide deeper research efforts. This paper proposes a methodological framework to strengthen the quality and reliability of CSOR analysis (CSORA).Design/methodology/approachFocusing on addressing uncertainties, the framework establishes a solid, overarching and updated basis for quantitative CSOR analysis. The framework consists of clearly defined elements and processes, including knowledge establishing, information gathering, aggregating multiple sources of data (social/deliberative and mathematical/statistical), calculating risk and uncertainty level, and presenting...
Safety and Reliability, 2007
Risk-based ship design is a formalised methodology that integrates systematically risk assessment in the design process with prevention/reduction of risk (to life, property and the environment) embedded as a design objective, alongside "conventional" design objectives (such as speed, capacity, etc). This paper aims at providing a comprehensive overview of the basic elements of the methodology, including reference to applicable risk and other design criteria. The approach goes beyond other formal procedures for risk quantification, risk assessment and risk management existent in various contexts (for instance the Formal Safety Assessment for developing rules, the Safety Case approach for specific design/operational solutions), in that it takes into account mechanisms for trade-offs between safety and other design factors by utilising overlaps between performance, life-cycle cost considerations, functionality and safety at parameter level. The paper also exemplifies the use of the methodology by presenting a framework for application for the case of carriage of dangerous goods by sea.
The paper is devoted to safety of ships in emergency conditions The currently valid prescriptive method of safety assessment of ships in damage conditions is included in the SOLAS 2009 Part B-2 Ch.II-1 regulations. It is devoted to the design stage and difficult to apply in operation. A possible alternative described in this paper is a method based on assessment of performance of ships and risk assessment. Type of risk evaluation is the quantitative risk assessment. The matrix type risk model has been applied for estimation the risk and the measure of safety of ships level is based on the risk acceptance criteria from the risk matrix. After the risk assessment the method may be used for the safety management purposes using the risk control options.
Disaster Management and Human Health Risk IV, 2015
Ship recycling operations expose workers to a wide range of hazards that can cause a large number of incidents and accidents resulting in ill health, injuries and even death. In order to facilitate effective risk reduction within ship recycling yards, there is a need to develop an appropriate risk assessment method that is supportive and simple to use. In addition, the utilised method should involve end-user participation which is very important in assisting the realisation and acceptance of required health and safety measures. In this paper, a new bespoke risk assessment methodology for ship recycling, 'The Three Step Risk Assessment Method for Ship Recycling' (Three Step Method) will be presented which fulfils the criteria's mentioned above. This paper will document the Three Step Method's development and explain its various steps of implementation before introducing a case study and feedback of a practical application of the method. Finally, the conclusions that the Three Step Method provides a proven useful dialogue in the identification, assessment and mitigation of hazards and that the method can be easily implemented in the ship repair industry will be made.
Journal of Marine Science and Engineering
This paper deals with a statistical analysis of maritime accidents pertaining to passenger ships in worldwide operation and, ultimately, with the assessment of the current safety level of the particular ship type, assuming that the safety level may be defined as a societally acceptable level of risk. The basic risk contributors, namely the frequency of main accidents’ occurrence and related consequences, are herein quantified and assessed. The presented analysis, covering the last two decades (2000–2021), shows that there has been a considerable reduction in the frequency of serious accidents’ occurrence in the last decade, whereas associated consequences do not exhibit the same trend since the frequency of ship total losses and of fatalities has increased. However, fatality rates are, to a great extent, affected by accidents of ships not compliant with safety regulations. This study also confirmed that grounding and contact accidents dominate the statistics of passenger ships of al...
2008
Commercial shipping of containerized goods involves certain risks for human safety and environment. In order to actively manage these risks, they must be identified, analyzed, modeled, and quantified. This requires a systematical analysis of design and operation of container vessels. Within the EU-funded research project SAFEDOR, a Formal Safety Assessment has been applied to establish the current safety level of generic container ships and to identify potential cost-effective risk control options. This paper describes a structured approach to develop the underlying high-level risk model. It is structured as risk contribution tree consisting of a series of fault trees and event trees for the major accident categories. Statistical analysis of casualty data is used to estimate the probability of occurrence. Finally, the summation overall individual risk contributions yields the current risk pro file for the operation of container vessels is presented as FN-curve.
Shipping activity has increased worldwide, including parts of Australia, and maritime administrations are trying to gain a better understanding of total risk exposure in order to mitigate risk. Total risk exposure integrates risk at the individual ship level, risk due to vessel traffic densities, physical environmental criteria, and environmental sensitivities. A comprehensive and robust risk exposure metric can be beneficial to maritime administrations to enhance mitigation of potential harm and reduce vulnerability to the marine environment as well as to safeguard lives and property. This report outlines an integrated methodology to estimate total risk exposure, with specific attention for the ship specific risk for different types of incident. Some related application aspects of the models are discussed.
2015
Key words: Limits of the acceptable risk Technology-based risk calculation methodology Coastal container liner shipping A B S T R A C T The methodology of business and technology risk evaluation and management in shipping is based on three key factors: the voyage duration, the detected spots of technological differences and the spots of consequence costs. The lowest costs of a vessel on a voyage or on a segment of a voyage are considered to be the optimal costs of a certain vessel on the voyage or on the segment of the voyage. Each cost that arises on a voyage or on a segment of a voyage which is higher than the lowest recorded cost is a consequence of a threat or a danger that has come to be. The initial value of the consequence cost is the lowest recorded cost or the optimal cost. The standard deviation is proposed to be the measure of the consequence cost i.e. of the degree of risk. The consequence cost that is higher than the ideal cost by two standard deviations is within the l...
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2015
Shipping activity has increased worldwide and maritime administrations are trying to enhance risk mitigation strategies by using proactive approaches. We present and discuss a conceptual framework to minimize potential harm based on a multi-layered approach which can be implemented in either real time for operational purposes or in prediction mode for medium or longer term strategic planning purposes. We introduce the concept of total risk exposure which integrates risk at the individual ship level with vessel traffic densities and location specific parameters such as weather and oceanographic conditions, geographical features or environmental sensitivities. A comprehensive and robust method to estimate and predict risk exposure can be beneficial to maritime administrations to enhance mitigation strategies and understand uncertainties.
1999
By examining 20 years data, the paper attempts to outline the safety and quality records of open registers, and to establish a relationship of accidental total loss rate with ship quality factors, e.g., certi®cate, crew performance and equipment indicated by detention rates. It con®rms that loss rate, detention rate and age of ships are highly correlated with each other. It shows that the loss rates and detention rates of open registers are above the world average, but with the exception of Liberia, Marshall Islands and Barbados. A new approach is suggested for assessment of ships safety score. Ó 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.
Maritime Policy & Management, 2018
This paper investigates whether deficiencies detected during port state control (PSC) inspections have predictive power for future accident risk, in addition to other vessel-specific risk factors like ship type, age, size, flag, and owner. The empirical analysis links accidents to past inspection outcomes and is based on data from all around the globe of PSC regimes using harmonized deficiency codes. These codes are aggregated into eight groups related to human factor aspects like crew qualifications, working and living conditions, and fatigue and safety management. This information is integrated by principal components into a single overall deficiency index, which is related to future accident risk by means of logit models. The factor by which accident risk increases for vessels with above average compared to below average deficiency scores is about 6 for total loss, 2 for very serious, 1.5 for serious, and 1.3 for less-serious accidents. Relations between deficiency scores and accident risk are presented in graphical format. The results may be of interest to PSC authorities for targeting inspection areas, to maritime administrations for improving asset allocation based on prediction scenarios connected with vessel traffic data, and to maritime insurers for refining their premium strategies.
Safety Science, 2013
This study reviews ship security assessment. The objectives are to explore the possibilities for quantifying and performing a more thorough ship security risk analysis than that described in the International Ship and Port Facility Security code and to evaluate to what extent this more detailed analysis increases ship security and facilitate the effective selection of risk control options. The study focuses on Somali-based maritime piracy, using piracy on the Indian Ocean as a case study. Data are collected using questionnaires and interviews with civilian and military security experts who possess firsthand experience of piracy off the coast of Somalia. The data are collected specifically for this study and describe and quantify the threat’s capability, intent and likelihood of exploiting a ship’s vulnerability. Based on the collected description of the threat, the study analyzes and describes: probability of detection by pirates, probability of successful approach, and probability of successful boarding. The performed work shows good agreement between calculated probabilities and frequencies in the cited incident reports. Also, the developed scenarios describe the most important influences on the analyzed areas. The research therefore shows that the proposed risk-based approach, which uses structurally collected and documented information on the threat, can increase ship security by assisting in selecting risk control options. The approach also allows for a better understanding of the causal relationship between threat and risk than that provided in today’s security analysis by ship owners, for example. This understanding is crucial to choosing effective and robust risk control options.
Safety may be defined as an acceptable state of risk by society. In this respect, for assessing the current safety level of ships, it is necessary to quantify the risk level of the operating world fleet, thus estimate and assess the basic contributors to risk, namely the frequency of maritime accidents and the extent of their consequences. The present investigation was motivated by earlier published work of Det Norske Veritas (DNV, 2006), in which they were some alarming signals of worsening of the level of maritime safety. A justified question therefore is whether and how the level of ship safety changed thereafter. Recalling that a fundamental step of a Formal Safety Assessment of maritime assets is the investigation of relevant casualty reports and the analysis of historical data, which characterise the maritime safety performance in the studied period, the herein presented work deals with a systematic analysis of ship accidents in the last decade as a way to evaluate the current level of safety for the majority of ship sub-types present in the world merchant fleet and to conclude on the foreseeable future. The presented analysis also includes a deeper investigation about possible relationships between accident rates and ship's age, which proved more complex than initially thought. The outcome of the present study indicates that in the last decade although the frequencies of ship accidents generally increased, the safety level of various ship types did not significantly change, as the consequences of accidents remained in average at about the same level.
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