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2009, Games and Economic Behavior
Economic theory predicts that in a first-price auction with equal and observable valuations, bidders earn zero profits. Theory also predicts that if valuations are not common knowledge, then since it is weakly dominated to bid your valuation, bidders will bid less and earn positive profits. Hence, rational players in an auction game should prefer less public information. We are perhaps more used to seeing these results in the equivalent Bertrand setting. In our experimental auction, we find that individuals without information on each other's valuations earn more profits than those with common knowledge. Then, given a choice between the two sets of rules, half the individuals still preferred to have the public information. We discuss possible explanations, including ambiguity aversion.
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2015
We study in the laboratory a series of first price sealed bid auctions of a common value good. Bidders face three types of information: private information, public information and common uncertainty. Auctions are characterized by the relative size of these three information elements. Only half of our subjects bid differently depending on whether the last piece of information obtained is private or public but they do not react to each type of information as predicted by theory. The other half of the subjects do not distinguish between private and public information and either consistently underbid or consistently overbid.
The RAND Journal of Economics, 2004
We study a situation in which an auctioneer wishes to sell an object to one of N risk-neutral bidders with heterogeneous preferences. The auctioneer does not know bidders' preferences but has private information about the characteristics of the object, and must decide how much information to reveal prior to the auction. We show that the auctioneer has incentives to release less information than would be e±cient and that the amount of information released increases with the level of competition (as measured by the number of bidders). Furthermore, in a perfectly competitive market the auctioneer would provide the e±cient level of information.
American Economic Review, 1999
Journal of behavioral and experimental economics, 2017
We conduct a laboratory experiment of second-price sealed bid auctions of a common value good with two bidders. Bidders face three different types of information: common uncertainty (unknown information), private information (known by one bidder) and public information (known by both bidders), and auctions differ on the relative importance of these three types of information. We find that subjects barely differentiate between private and public information and deviate from the theoretical predictions with respect to all three types of information. There is under-reaction to both private and public information and systematic overbidding in all auctions above and beyond the standard winner's curse. The Cursed Equilibrium and Level-k models successfully account for some features of the data but others remain largely unexplained.
The American Economic Review, 1999
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, 2009
Landsberger et al. [Landsberger, M., Rubinstein, J., Wolfstetter, E., Zamir, S., 2001. First-price auctions when the ranking of valuations is common knowledge. Review of Economic Design 6, 461–480] identified optimal bidder behavior in first-price private-value auctions when the ranking of valuations is common knowledge, and they derived comparative-statics predictions regarding the auctioneer's expected revenue and the efficiency of the allocation. The experiment reported here tests the behavioral components of these comparative-statics predictions. The results support the prediction that buyers are inclined to bid more aggressively when they learn they have the low value. Contrary to the theory, buyers are inclined to bid less when they learn they have the high value. Consistent with theory, the overall proportion of efficient allocations is lower than in the first-price auction before information is revealed. But as a result of high-value bidders decreasing their bids, the expected revenue does not increase on a regular basis, contrary to the theory's predictions. Keywords: Asymmetric auctions; Laboratory experiments; Bounded rationality; Affiliation; Economics of information JEL classification codes: C92; D44; D82
We develop a two-player all-pay auction model where an incumbent competes with an entrant. The incumbent’s valuation is publicly known, whereas the entrant’s valuation is unknown but has a publicly known prior distribution. However, before competing in the all-pay auction, the entrant can acquire additional information about his valuation through a learning experiment. This experiment enables him to learn his valuation perfectly, but we also allow for intermediate levels of information. We find that the entrant maximizes his expected payoff by perfectly learning his valuation. Furthermore, the entrant has a greater willingness to pay for information when competing against an incumbent with a similar ex-ante valuation, and a lesser willingness to pay for information when competing against a stronger or weaker incumbent. Nonetheless, the entrant is less willing to pay for information when he competes with a weaker incumbent than a stronger one. We then test the robustness of these res...
1995
This paper presents the results of an experiment on the economics of endogenous information acquisition. The experiment consists of a series of auctions where subjects compete for an object with private but unknown value. The information regarding the value of the object is costly. The experiment tests a theoretical model of bidding equilibrium and analyzes the effects of variations in the parameters (such as information costs and level of uncertainty) on the endogenous variables (such as the proportion of bidders who buy information and the winning bid). Bidders' decisions concerning the purchase of information are closely consistent with a Risk Neutral Rational Expectations model. The winning bids, however, are persistently above the equilibrium predictions suggesting the presence of risk aversion.
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty
Experiments on first-price sealed-bid auctions with independent private values have shown that submitted bids typically exceed Nash-equilibrium predictions for risk-neutral bidders. Existing bidding models explain this phenomenon by assuming that the bidders are risk-averse and capable of drawing complete and correct inferences about their winning probabilities. In this article, we use the Choquet expected utility (CEU) theory to demonstrate that the observed bidding behavior can also be attributed to ambiguity aversion which causes the bidders to underestimate their chances of winning the auction. Empirical support for CEU bidding models is given through an analysis of recent bidding data.
Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, 1988
First-price auction theory is extended to the case of heterogeneous bidders characterized by Mparameter log-concave utility functions. This model, and its specific two-parameter constant relative risk averse special case, is generally supported by the results of 47 experiments. The one-parameter special case that comprises most of the theoretical literature is not supported by the experiments. One anomaly for the two-parameter model is that too m~ny of the subjects exhibit positive (or negative) intercepts in their linear estimated bid functions. Accordingly, we develop a specific three-parameter model, which introduces a utility of winning, and a threshold utility of surplus. The new model, tested directly by introducing lump-sum payments or charges for winning, is not falsified by the new experiments. 62 JAMES c. COx, VERNON L. SMITH, AND JAMES M. WALKER constant relative risk averse model, all of which have been analyzed in the literature! There are two reasons why our extension of bidding th~ory to agents with heterogeneous risk preferences is important: (1) some such extension is demanded by the bidding data, since these data are highly inconsistent with all identical bidders models; (2) a recent comprehensive survey of over 50 bidding theory papers (McMee and McMillan, 1987) lists only one contribution that is not based on the assumption that bidders have identical risk preferences (Cox, Smith, and Walker, 1982). We also present the results of 47 F auction experiments, which are designed to discriminate among the various noncooperative equilibrium models of bidding~.:f that are contained in the generalM-parameter model. These results do not support either the linear or the one-parameter concave model. The results do support im-' portant features of the constant relative risk averse model (CRRAM), such as ..; linearity of bid functions and invariance of bidding behavior to a multiplicative transformation of payoffs. However, the homogeneity property of CRRAM bid functions is violated by 22% of the subjects. In addition, subject bids are generally inconsistent with the predictions of the conjunction of CRRAM and square or square root transformations of payoffs. We develop a specific three-parameter model, CRRAM*, based on a utility of winning and a threshold utility of surplus, to account for the observed nonzero bid function intercepts. Five new experiments (30 subjects) yield results that are consistent with the testable implications of CRRAM*. 1. The log-concave equilibrium model of bidding in the first-price auction Consider anF auction where the seller's reservation price is zero and, therefore, no nonpositive bid can be a winning bid. Let there be n > 2 bidders. Each bidder's monetary value, Vi' i = 1, ..., n, for the auctioned object is independently drawn from the probability distribution with cdf H(') on [O,v]. H(.) has a continuous density function that is positive on (O,v). Bidders are assumed to know their own Vi but to know only the distribution from which their rivals' values are drawn. The utility to any bidder i of a winning bid in the amount hi is the von Neumann-Morgenstern utility U(Vi-hi, 9;), where 9i is anM-1 vector of para meters that is independently drawn from the probability distribution with integrable cdf<l>(.) on the convex set 0. Each bidder knows his or her own 9i but knows only that his or her rivals' 9's are drawn from the distribution <1>(.). Thus, a bidder is' represented by (vi,9;), where Vi is his or her (scalar) auctioned object value and 9i is his or her M-1 vector of other individual characteristics that affect bidding behavior in thisM-parameterlog-concave model. Assume thatu(y,9) is twice continuously differentiable and strictly increasing in monetary payoff y and normalized such that u(0,9) = 0, for all 9 E 0. Finally, assume that u(y,9) is strictly log-concave in y, for each 9 E 0; that is, assume that ul(y,9)/u(y,9) is strictly de-'c.::
Artificial Intelligence, 2014
This paper introduces a game-theoretic analysis of auction settings where bidders' private values depend on an uncertain common value, and only the auctioneer has the option to purchase information to remove that uncertainty. Here, the auctioneer's mission is to reason about whether to purchase the information and, after purchasing it, whether to disclose it to the bidders. Unlike prior work, here the model assumes that bidders are aware of the auctioneer's option to purchase the external information but not necessarily aware of her decision. Our analysis of the individual revenue-maximizing strategies results in the characterization of a Bayesian Nash equilibrium profile. Our equilibrium's analysis results in several findings including the following non trivial results: (i) the availability of external information may minimize the auctioneer's expected revenue; (ii) using the pricing scheme for expensive information may benefit the auctioneer; (iii) in contrast to traditional results, increasing the number of bidders does not necessarily increase expected revenue.
2002
This paper considers the ramifications of post-auction competition on bidding behavior under different bid announcement policies. In equilibrium, the auctioneer's announcement policy has two distinct effects. First, announcement entices players to signal information to their post-auction competitors through their bids. Second, announcement can lead to greater bidder participation in certain instances while limiting participation in others. Specifically, the participation effect works against the signalling effect, thus reducing the impact of signalling found in other papers. Revenue, efficiency, and surplus implications of various announcement policies are examined. * We would like to thank Jim Anton for many helpful comments. Special thanks is also owed to S. Viswanathan, Laurie Hodrick, Robert C. Marshall, Herve Moulin, and Dan Graham for guidance and support. Thank you also to Larry Ausubel, and participants in our Econometric Society seminar. An earlier version of this paper can be found in Rhodes-Kropf's dissertation, 1997.
This paper considers when the utility function of the bidders is ambiguity averse, how does the bidding strategy differ in four classical auction mechanisms. In particular, if there is no information affiliation, i.e., when first order sealed auction is equivalent to English auction in terms of bidding, bidders may bid higher or lower relative to ambiguity neutral case. From the seller's point of view, expected revenue equivalence theorem may not hold generally. First order sealed auction may yield an higher or lower revenue relative to the second order sealed auction. Our theory explains why English auctions may not always underperform than the second order sealed auctions, even when the bidders are risk averse.
2015
Abstract: In this paper I develop a Prospect theory based model to explain bidding in first-price auctions. As suggested in the literature, bidding occurs in these auctions in an inherently ambiguous environment due to lack of information about bidders ’ risk attitudes and bidding strategies. I show that bidding in first-price auctions can be rationalized as a combination of reactions to underlying ambiguity and anticipated loss aversion. Using data from experimental auctions, I provide evidence that in induced value auctions against human bidders this approach works well. In auctions with prior experience and /or against risk-neutral Nash bidders where ambiguity effects could be altogether irrelevant, anticipated loss aversion by itself can explain aggressive bidding. This is a novel result in the literature. Using data from experiments I find that ambiguity effects become negligible in auctions with prior experience (with loss aversion) against (i) experienced human bidders and (i...
2003
Suppose a bidder must decide whether and when to incur the cost of estimating his own private value in an auction. This can explain why a bidder might increase his bid ceiling in the course of an auction, and why a bidder would like to know the private values of other bidders. It also can explain sniping-flurries of bids at the end of auctions with deadlines-as the result of other bidders trying to avoid stimulating the uninformed bidder to examine his value.
The Economic Journal, 2008
This paper presents results from a series of second price private value auction (SPA) experiments in which bidders are either given for free, or are allowed to purchase, noisy signals about their opponents' value. Even though theoretically such information about oppoents' value has no strategetic use in the SPA, it provides us with a convenient instrument to change bidders' perception about the \strength" (i.e. the value) of their opponent. We argue that the empirical relationship between the incidence and magnitude of overbidding and bidders' perception of the strength of their opponent provides the key to understand whether overbidding in second price auctions are driven by \spite" motives or by the \joy of winning." The experimental data show that bidders are much more likely to overbid, though less likely to submit large overbid, when they perceive their rivals to have similar values as their own. We argue that this empirical relationship is more consistent with a modi ed \joy of winning" hypothesis than with the \spite" hypothesis. However, neither of the non-standard preference explanations are able to fully explain all aspects of the experimental data, and we argue for the important role of bounded rationality. We also nd that bidder heterogeneity plays an important role in explaining their bidding behavior.
Economics Letters, 2011
In the context of first-price auctions with asymmetrically informed bidders, we show that risk aversion not only increases a player's bid, but also makes him less sensitive to the probability that other bidders are informed about his private valuation.
2006
We conduct an experiment to test whether probability misperception may be a possible alternative to risk aversion to explain overbidding in independent first-price private-values auctions. The experimental outcomes indicate that subjects underestimate their probability of winning the auction, and indeed overbid. Yet, when provided with feed-back on the precision of their predictions, subjects learn first to predict their probability of winning correctly, and second to curb-down significantly overbidding. The structural estimation of different behavioral models suggests that i) subjects are heterogenous with respect to risk preferences and probability perceptions, ii) subjects tend to best-respond to their stated beliefs, and iii) although necessary to explain fully behavior, risk aversion appears to play a lesser role than previously believed. Finally, our experimental findings are shown to be consistent with a standard theoretical auction model combining risk aversion and mispercep...
1999
This paper presents a simple model of auction equilibrium. The distinctive feature of the model is that each bidder may discover the value that the item represents for herself, provided she spends some amount in order to be well informed. For each agent, the decision of whether or not to acquire information depends on a private cost of information acquisition and on her conjectures regarding the behavior of other bidders. A rational expectations equilibrium is characterized.
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