Exploring the link between climate change and migration

Urban environment and climate change, 2018

Background/aim Climate change can both directly and indirectly drive human migration. Despite this, strong understanding of the system of determinants of migration and their interactions, remains a knowledge gap resulting in large uncertainties and ill-informed interventions. Objectives To create a new conceptual model for the identification of drivers of migration in the context of climate change. Methods A critical analysis of existing theoretical and quantitative literature was performed in order to synthesise a new conceptual model for identifying the migration determinants system. Results Quantitative studies fail to homogenously apply a theoretical model for the drivers of migration and the variety of migration outcomes that occur. This in turn results in a poor evidence-base for interventions in areas where this is critical, including public health, land planning and immigration policies. Existing theoretical models are insufficiently transferable and fail to capture the full range of migration determinants. A new migration typology and conceptual model of migration is constructed based on an upstream, holistic approach to migration. The model overcomes current shortcomings by capturing temporality and driver dynamics as well as being a plastic model that may be transferred into any context. Conclusion From the homogenous application of such a conceptual framework, quantitative models may also be able to more accurately quantify the extent to which contemporary and future climate change influences migration. Such models are therefore informative tools for decision-making concerning strategies for migration policy and public health planning.

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health, 2020

Both climate change and migration present key concerns for global health progress. Despite this, a transparent method for identifying and understanding the relationship between climate change, migration and other contextual factors remains a knowledge gap. Existing conceptual models are useful in understanding the complexities of climate migration, but provide varying degrees of applicability to quantitative studies, resulting in non-homogenous transferability of knowledge in this important area. This paper attempts to provide a critical review of climate migration literature, as well as presenting a new conceptual model for the identification of the drivers of migration in the context of climate change. It focuses on the interactions and the dynamics of drivers over time, space and society. Through systematic, pan-disciplinary and homogenous application of theory to different geographical contexts, we aim to improve understanding of the impacts of climate change on migration. A bri...

Sodality: Jurnal Sosiologi Pedesaan

The objective of this research is to explain how climate change affects and is affected by population growth and migration. The global analysis will then be followed by a specific study in Indonesia on the relation between population migration and natural disaster events. The research method used a secondary data analysis based on literature review, the 2015 Inter-Census Population Survey (SUPAS) data and 2013 disaster data. To reduce greenhouse gas emissions and ensure the sustainability of the planet's earth, there are three things that should be done, namely to reduce the pace of population growth, to change the pattern of consumption of natural resources, and to increase Earth's carrying capacity by using technologies and innovations. Migration is mostly caused by economic needs, while migration due to disaster events is very small. Migration data records permanent migration type, while the disaster-affected population usually migrates on the temporary bases. The BPS-St...

With climate change a scientific fact, the possibility of international migration being affected by extreme weather events becomes increasingly likely. As weather events become more prevalent and violent, the amount of people who will seek shelter abroad will potentially increase. Indeed, there are many reasons for why people migrate and they are not always explicit and immediately apparent. The argument of this paper is that climate change has a significant impact on international migration.

2008

This paper looks at why the environmental aspect of the study of migration and refugees has been neglected. It proposes a definition of population movements induced by environmental factors, before concentrating on climate aspects by providing a synthesis of ...

2019

International system has been facing a plethora of challenges since the beginning of the 21st century. Climate change and migration are among the crucial problems threatening the integrity of the system. Moreover, environmental and humanitarian crises have been triggered due to the global and transboundary effects of climate change and migration. This study argues that the nexus of climate change and migration is one great issue that requires the state to adopt a new governance approach to tackle with these problems. In this context, the study focuses on the different terms used in migration literature and the conceptualization of interrelation between migration and climate change with a descriptive method. The study aims to reveal vital problems by examining some hotspots where the migration flows happen as a result of climate change and its impacts. However, the study considers the potential positive effects of migration, as well. It is argued that for the state to respond to the ...

The relationship between climate change and migration is much more subtle and complex than 'clickbait' headlines suggest, write Kayly Ober and Patrick Sakdapolrak

Migration Policy Institute Feature, 2010

Most scientists agree that global warming affects ecological systems, but there is less certainty about its social effects, especially regarding human mobility. Yet this has not prevented a number of scholars, multilateral agencies, and nongovernmental organizations from making alarming predictions that climate change processes will trigger historically unprecedented waves of mass migration. The more widely cited estimates for the number of people displaced by 2050 range from 50 million (UN University's Institute for Environment and Human Security) to 200 million (International Organization for Migration (IOM) and Stern Review). If the higher estimates pan out, climate change-related migration could dwarf current numbers of refugees and internally displaced people-about 45 million and 9 million by United Nations estimates, respectively. While there are no scientifically verified estimates of the number of people that will be displaced by climate change, several studies by UN agencies, IOM, and NGOs, including an influential report published in 2009, already show evidence that environmentally induced migration is occurring. Also, despite controversy surrounding the specifics of climate change data, there is no evidence to contradict the expected trend of continued global warming for at least a few decades to come. This article will examine the complex links between climate change and migration, how and where these links influence current and future migration patterns, and some of the problems with predicting future flows. It will also outline some current policy approaches and look at where the debate is headed. The Climate Change-Migration Nexus Migration has helped humans cope with environmental changes, such as droughts and floods, for centuries. The frequency, severity, and duration of such changes affect the broad types of migration patterns-temporary, permanent, internal, or internationalthat take place. The prevailing tendency thus far has been toward more circular, internal movements of people from mostly rural to urban areas and within national boundaries or regions. These trends are evident, for example, in the seasonal labor migration of Central American, Mexican, and West African farmers to compensate for lower agricultural productivity in rural areas, as well as in the temporary displacement of thousands of Bangladeshis to their capital, Dhaka, in response to annual monsoon floods. However, severe environmental damage, whether natural or manmade, can leave populations with little recourse but to move permanently and en-masse. This happened in the 1930s Dust Bowl in the Great Plains of the United States. Below-average rainfall, accompanied by the Great Depression, resulted in the widespread failure of small farms and the migration of about 300,000 "Okies" to California. Currently, people are beginning to leave some small island nations in the Pacific with low elevations because the islands are suffering high rates of coastal erosion and experiencing rising sea levels. Environmental degradation is also increasingly common in those areas, such as in West Africa and Haiti, where depleted agricultural land can no

Advances in Global Change Research, 2011

Past estimates of the numbers of migrants caused to relocate as a result of climate change have ranged from millions to billions worldwide. Attempts to quantify the numbers of people affected have commonly been based around calculating the numbers of 'environmental refugees' by projecting physical climate changes, such as sea-level rise or rainfall decline, on an exposed population. These studies generally make simplistic assumptions about the ability of individuals to cope with variations in climate. However, empirical evidence of environmentally induced migration have not supported such an approach with the recognition that migration decisions are usually not mono-causal but influenced by multiple factors involving complex spatial interactions under heterogeneous conditions. In this context, agent based modelling offers a robust method to model autonomous decision making in relation to migration. In this chapter we discuss the theoretical development of an agent-based modelling approach to climate change-migration studies using the example of Burkina Faso. In doing so we cover questions of emergence, validation, and bounded rationality related to quantitative migration studies.