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The Historical Evidence For The Pessimistic Induction

Abstract

Scientific realism holds that those current theories that are the object of a wide consensus among scientists are approximately true, and that it is reasonable to hold that these theories are approximately true. According to the pessimistic induction, the historical record of scientific theorizing undermines scientific realism. I argue that the historical evidence actually cited, or apparently envisaged, in support of pessimistic inductions as standardly conceived is incapable in principle of supporting them. Historical evidence that does better is conceivable, but such evidence has not in fact been provided, and it is far from obvious that it could be.