Sociotechnical scenarios for the Austrian energy system

sussex.ac.uk

Climatic Change

Energy conversion is a major source of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, and energy transition scenarios are a key tool for gaining a greater understanding of the possible pathways toward climate protection. There is consensus in energy research that political and societal framework conditions will play a pivotal role in shaping energy transitions. In energy scenario construction, this perspective is increasingly acknowledged through the approach of informing model-based energy analysis with storylines about societal futures, an exercise we call “socio-technical energy scenario construction” in this article. However, there is a dispute about how to construct the storylines in a traceable, consistent, comprehensive, and reproducible way. This study aims to support energy researchers considering the use of the concept of socio-technical scenarios in two ways: first, we provide a state-of-the-art analysis of socio-technical energy scenario construction by comparing 16 studies with respec...

Climatic Change

The anthropogenically induced climate change is a core geopolitical challenge in the twentyfirst century, which will be decisive for the long-term global cohabitation of humans, and economic opportunities as a base for wellbeing (WBGU 2011). The energy sector is responsible for 60-70% of global greenhouse gases (IEA 2015), which sets the transformation of the energy system at the centre of any discussion on how to de-fossilize economic systems and thus minimize the carbon footprint of societies. As climate change is a global challenge, the same is true for changing the way energy systems function. Ways and means to decarbonize the energy supply are the topic of a broad range of discussions at the highest political levels and are also the topic of uncountable scientific articles. Common to most political or scientific contributions is the use of or reference to scenarios (e.g. IEA 2019). Scenarios show development options by revealing important interdependencies and their relevance. However, scenarios do not predict the future, which is often ignored in discussions. Instead, model-based econometric or techno-economic scenarios make an important contribution to science-based policy advice by pointing out alternative futures and their implications. Since past and current political as well as societal developments reveal that the shape of an energy system and its contribution to greenhouse gas emissions are the outcome of multidimensional interactions within civil society, as well as between civil society, politics, technology, and the economy (Geels 2004; Verbong and Loorbach 2012), meaningful transition scenarios require a sound consideration of the interplay between society, technology, and environment.

Several developments, including the climate crisis, the growing energy hunger of emerging economies, the nuclear catastrophe of Fukushima and the recent shale gas and tight oil boom in the US, have contributed to putting energy policy more than ever at the center of policy attention. Energy scenarios are central nodes in these discussions. They structure debates about the necessary "energy transition(s)" and represent stages in the negotiation, enactment or reaffirmation of national energy futures. Our workshop will therefore concentrate on the role of energy scenarios in current debates and policy decisions in Germany, France and the Netherlands, in order to elucidate the ways societies think about energy futures, and under which conditions scenarios can help to successfully prepare sustainable transformations of energy systems.

This chapter analyzes the history of energy forecasts and scenarios in West Germany in the decades . It shows that forecasting techniques were crucial in structuring the emerging field of energy policy and analyzes them as sociotechnical objects that defined boundaries between scientific and political questions in German energy discourse. The first part of the chapter analyzes how forecasting techniques were introduced into energy debates at the global level and later in national policy-making. I also point to some scholarly debates about how to characterize the functions and effects of such techniques. The second part of the chapter deals with the role of energy forecasts from the late 1950s to the beginning of the 1970s. In this period, characterized by steady economic growth in what has been called the German "Wirtschaftswunder" ("economic miracle"), energy modeling techniques were concentrated in the hands a few economic research institutes, energy utilities and state administrations, and forecasts were mainly used as instruments directly intended for the policy process. 1 They represented an attempt to create forms of foreseeability about evolutions in the energy field, and reflected a general trend to the "rationalization of politics." But forecasts were also part of a negotiation game that took place between government and energy utilities, as well as between 1/27/2015 6244-0555-003.docx 94 different groups within government, over public investments in energy technologies, energy infrastructure and power plants. In fact, forecasting reenacted a post-war social contract based on steady economic growth and associated energy demand, and helped to forge a political compromise on energy policy comprising a simultaneous commitment to the dominant freemarket ideology and to the protection of the domestic coal sector. Forecasts also encapsulated optimistic visions about the future potential of nuclear energy, constituting the cornerstone of an emerging "economy of techno-scientific promise." 2 The role of forecasting changed, however, by the end of the 1970s. The third part of the chapter discusses the emergence of energy turnaround (Energiewende) 3 scenarios in West Germany. These scenarios appeared in the context of increasing controversies over energy policy after the two oil crises (1973 and 1979), but also in a situation of growing civil society resistance against nuclear energy. In other words, by the early 1980s, some of the cornerstones of post-war energy consensus in Germany crumbled. Elaborated by research institutes with close links to the anti-nuclear movement, energy turnaround scenarios constituted strategic devices in these controversies, and they used the scenario technique specifically in order to allow for the representation of contrasting alternative energy futures, thereby re-politicizing the energy debate. In particular, the chapter analyzes the first transition scenario elaborated by the newly founded Öko-Institut (Ecological Institute), in 1980, and shows how this scenario questioned, challenged and destabilized central elements of the post-war consensus. The fourth part of the chapter looks at how the scenario technique was used in two German parliamentary commissions (Enquetekommission), in 1979-1980, and in 1987-1990. These commissions were organized at two very particular moments in time, in which fundamental understandings of energy policy were "unsettled" 4 and energy futures hotly 1/27/2015 6244-0555-003.docx 95 debated. The first commission was created after the Three Miles Island accident, the second one after the Chernobyl catastrophe and first public alerts in West Germany about an imminent "climate catastrophe." In the context of these two commissions, scenario methodology played a key role in the process of negotiating an energy future for West Germany. Scenarios were used to foster consensual recommendations about long-term goals and short-term actions, and allowed the commissions to present different conflicting future visions compatible with these goals. The commissions thus avoided taking an explicit stance in the controversy on nuclear energy, and helped alternative energy scenarios that had emerged out of the radical environmental debate of the 1970s to become accepted and included into official expertise. Scenarios of energy futures were also central, I propose, in a redrawing of boundaries between what should be considered as a "scientific" representation of the future, in other words one that could be delegated to expertsand what should be regarded as open for political discussion in the energy field. 5

Environmental Research Letters, 2020

The energy landscape is changing dramatically. It is populated by many different and discrete energy transitions happening simultaneously in across different sectors, with dynamically different drivers, and across varying locations. This Perspective proposes a new three-part categorization to help better understand the myriad socio-technical changes being witnessed, which cut across user and market behaviour as well as institutions and technologies. We express energy transitions in three categories: Interim energy transitions, shaped by policies without necessarily public acceptance, mostly within non-democratic regimes. Deliberate energy transitions, driven by citizen-driven change without supporting policies. Transformative energy transitions stem from a combination of policy and citizen-driven change. The degree of permanence of these three transition types depends on the real and perceived benefits to energy users, sustained adoption of technology, and the regulatory regime.

Technology Analysis & Strategic Management, 2010

System innovations are long-term transitions from one sociotechnical system to another. They involve not only changes in technology, but also changes in user practices, regulation, industrial networks, infrastructure, and culture. Current scenario methods are not entirely suited to explore possible system innovations. They lack attention to the co-evolution of technology and society, and to insights from innovation studies and sociology of technology. Hence, we propose a new tool: sociotechnical scenarios. We illustrate the tool with two scenarios in the electricity domain, sketching transition paths to more sustainable systems. We also derive strategic policy recommendations from the two scenarios.