Reckermann, Langner, Omstedt et al 2011

2014

Dear reader, welcome to the BALMAS project newsletter! Transnational cooperation in Adriatic region under the BALMAS project: Ballast Water Management System for Adriatic Sea Protection became fully operational with the start of the BALMAS project in November 2013. The BALMAS project integrates all necessary activities to enable a long-term, environmentally efficient, and financially and maritime trans-port sustainable implementation of ballast water management measures in the Adriatic Sea. In November we marked the first birthday of the BALMAS project. We have passed successfully several milestones, some of which are highlighted in this issue. BALMAS project Partners have been fully involved in a number of project activities, such as sampling in selected ports, attendance at numerous workshops and three regular meetings, and appearances in the media where ongoing and future work has been presented. We established also BALMAS Knowledge centre for the purpose of presenting our interi...

2019

The Baltic Sea is undergoing drastic environmental changes that are partly due to climate change. The ecology of this sea is particularly susceptible to climate change as its waters vary from cold and fresh in the north to brackish in the central area and saline and warmer in the west. Many of the major habitat-forming species of the Baltic are key species in the provision of ecosystem services, green infrastructure and a blue economy. The future distributions of these species are, or should be, of fundamental concern to marine spatial planning, environmental protection and the development of coastal economies. Using the latest climate models, SMHI has predicted future changes to several major ecologically structuring factors, such as salinity, temperature and nutrients. By modelling the presence and absence of key species today using historical reference data, it is possible to predict future species distributions, given the projected changes in structuring factors. For this purpose and in this project, habitat changes for two climate change scenarios have been modelled, one resting on assumptions of ambitious mitigation efforts (RCP 4.5, c. 2°C global warming) and the other representing a laissez faire-scenario (RCP 8.5, c. 4.5°C global warming). It is shown here that under all climate scenarios most of the modelled species will have a radically different distribution in the year 2100. While the distribution of freshwater species will remain similar or with slight changes for different reasons (lower salinity, higher temperature, changes in water clarity and nutrients), species limited by salinity will be radically reduced in the northern and central Baltic Sea, as well as the Bothnian Sea, in both scenarios. Especially hard bottoms will lose much of their ecosystem functions with the loss canopy-forming macro-algae including two of the three Fucus species, and the loss off the eelgrass Zostera marina will result in severe degradation of the values of sandy bottoms. By studying the connectivity of habitats, with respect to their value as sources for the habitat network and their strength based on how the network contributes to the habitat patches, it can be shown that certain areas stand out as especially important in the models as core areas or as refugia or “last stands” at the fringe of the distributional limit. Such especially valuable areas should be considered in marine spatial planning, in environmental conservation and in environmental impact studies. Using a predicted future distribution of key species, it is possible to assess the change and distribution of future ecosystem services, with implications for a blue economy. From what the models tell us, the future state of these key species implies such radical changes to the ecosystem and to the basis of the marine economy that immediate and drastic actions to mitigate climate change and to restore damaged habitats to salvage ecosystem functions seem warranted. Based on these results, recommendations are proposed for future-proofing marine spatial planning, environmental protection and the development of the blue economy; to predict future green infrastructure and the ecological base for future ecosystem services and a more vital marine economy. Recommendations include modelling the predicted future distribution of all major ecologically important species and compile maps of future important ecological hotspots for biodiversity and for specific ecosystem services that have been identified and discussed in various reports. Such ecosystem services are vital for regional economy e.g. through fish reproduction, but also on a local level by maintaining clean bathing waters, an attractive environment, rich wild life and recreational fishing.

Palynological determination of the age and ecological character of sediment series in the Szczecin Lagoon, southern Baltic Sea, 2009

Climate change and its interrelation with human life are in the focus of scientific research and political debates. Remarkable progress in understanding the climate system has been achieved e.g. through analysing climate records and using numerical global models for future climate projections based on reliable socio-economic scenarios. Tailored downscaling of these global projections to the regional scale for impact studies and decision making in the context of mitigation and adaptation is urgently required. Due to both its complex geophysical structure and large regional variability the Baltic Sea basin is an ideal example to be studied with high spatial resolution. In addition, the densely populated basin is under stress by further activities, e.g. agriculture and industry. The southern part of the Baltic basin is of special interest: The Polish lowland hosts in numerous lakes unique records of Late Pleistocene to Holocene sediments. Together with sediments of the Baltic Proper these deposits can be used for the derivation of complex climate proxies for a high resolution reconstruction of the regional climate. At the same time, the adjustment of agriculture and water management to the changes in climate challenge stake holders and planning agencies. In addition, sea level rise superimposed on neotectonic land subsidence leads to a continuous retreat of the southern Baltic Sea coast line and requires increasingly activities in coastal protection at the southern Baltic Sea.

AMBIO: A Journal of the Human Environment, 2007

?1 are using the coupled models in a decision support system, NEST, to evaluate the response of the marine ecosystem to changes in external loads through various management options. The models address all the seven major marine basins and the entire drainage basin of the Baltic Sea. A series of future scenarios have been developed, in close collaboration with the Helsinki Commission, to see the possible effects of improved wastewater treatment and manure handling, phosphorusfree detergents, and less intensive land use and live stocks. Improved wastewater treatment and the use of phosphorus-free detergents in the entire region would drastically decrease phosphorus loads and improve the marine environment, particularly the occurrence of cyanobacterial blooms. However, the Baltic Sea will remain eutrophic, and to reduce other effects, a substantial reduction of nitrogen emissions must be implemented. This can only be obtained in these scenarios by drastically changing land use. In a final scenario, we have turned 50% of all agricultural lands into grasslands, together with efficient wastewater treatments and a ban of phosphorus in detergents. This scenario will substantially reduce primary production and the extension of hypoxic bottoms, increase water transparency in the most eutrophied basins, and virtually eliminate extensive cyanobacterial blooms.

Knowledge about current and future climate change in the Baltic Sea region is scattered in various scientific publications which are mostly not usable for non-scientists. Nevertheless, trustworthy scientific information on the effects of regional climate change is necessary for decision makers. In the BACC assessments (BALTEX Assessment of Climate Change for the Baltic Sea basin), more than 100 experts from the entire Baltic Sea region summarize the currently available published knowledge of climate change and its impacts in the Baltic Sea region. Observed changes are described, scenarios of possible future changes are presented and observed and estimated impacts on the environment are discussed. The assessments encompass the knowledge about what scientists agree on but also identify cases of disagreement or knowledge gaps. The assessments are evaluated by independent scientific reviewers. The BACC assessments of 2008 (BACC I) and 2013/14 (BACC II) are used by HELCOM, the intergovernmental Baltic Marine Environment Protection Commission, as a basis for future deliberations on regional climate change. According to BACC I, a warming is going on in the Baltic Sea region presently, and is expected to continue throughout the 21st century. So far, and in the next few decades, the signal is limited to temperature and directly related variables, such as ice conditions. Later, changes in the water cycle are expected to become obvious. This regional warming will have a variety of effects on terrestrial and marine ecosystems-some predictable such as the changes in the phenology others so far hardly predictable. BACC II confirms BACC I results. Some aspects are treated in more detail in the new assessment, or are completely new. The issue of multiple drivers on ecosystems and socio-economy is recognized, but more efforts are needed. In many cases, the relative importance of different drivers next to climate change needs to be evaluated.