2009 Typhoon Ondoy and Pepeng Disasters in the Phillipines

Natural Hazards, 2012

An unusual amount of precipitation fell in Panay island during the passage of Typhoon Fengshen (local name: Typhoon Frank) in June 2008. The voluminous amount of rain is attributed to the interaction of the tropical cyclone and southwest monsoon as the latter was enhanced by the former during its passage across central Philippines. Ground and aerial surveys were conducted to document the extensive flooding and landslides that occurred in the island. Artificial damming of rivers followed by breaching resulted to flooding, whereas steep slopes, fractured lithologies and intense precipitation were recognized to have led to the occurrence of landslides. These natural hazards and their causes are presented to contribute to our understanding of how weather systems evolve and what the corresponding effects are on the ground. This, hopefully, can provide significant inputs in improving disaster risk reduction and preparedness programs.

Journal of Coastal Research, 2016

Approximately 2 years have passed since the catastrophic damage caused by Super Typhoon Haiyan, which struck the Philippines on November 8, 2013. The purpose of this paper is to illustrate what actually happened during the Haiyan event, by examining observations and literature reviews. Our questionnaire survey results were analyzed to understand availabilities of opportunities to participate in disaster-related education programs and drill to local residents both before and after Haiyan. Following our analysis, we conclude that there were few opportunities for local residents to take part in disaster-related activities in the highly damaged areas in Leyte before Haiyan. After Haiyan, many opportunities for training were provided by non-governmental organizations (NGOs) and city and barangay officials. Residents leant about possible typhoon impacts during Typhoon Haiyan, and the educational activities that took place afterwards, facilitated successful evacuation during Typhoon Ruby. Based on our overview of Typhoon Haiyan and characterization of the human damage incurred by the storm surge in the target area, we recommend some future steps that contribute to reduce the risks posed by natural disasters in the Philippines.

Disasters, 2011

Being an archipelagic nation, the Philippines is susceptible and vulnerable to the ill-effects of weather-related hazards. Extreme weather events, which include tropical cyclones, monsoon rains and dry spells, have triggered hazards (such as floods and landslides) that have turned into disasters. Financial resources that were meant for development and social services have had to be diverted in response, addressing the destruction caused by calamities that beset different regions of the country. Changing climatic patterns and weather-related occurrences over the past five years (2004-08) may serve as an indicator of what climate change will mean for the country. Early recognition of this possibility and the implementation of appropriate action and measures, through disaster risk management, are important if loss of life and property is to be minimised, if not totally eradicated. This is a matter of urgent concern given the geographical location and geological characteristics of the Philippines.

Geomorphology, 2012

The role of landslides in generating or enhancing a flash flood event in Aklan, Panay Island, Philippines, resulting from Typhoon Fengshen, was investigated. The flash flood occurred between 1100 h and 1400 h (GMT + 8) of 21 June 2008 and inundated Sitios Agbatan and Abaya in the municipality of Libacao. Peak discharges at Kipot, a channel constriction in Aklan River about 10 km upstream, were independently derived using a hydrologic model (302.6 m 3 /s) and Manning's equation (7000 m 3 /s). The modeled flood peak reached Kipot at 0300 h on 21 June 2008 and the communities between 0600 h and 1000 h on June 21, at the earliest. The actual flood peak arrived at Sitios Agbatan and Abaya between 1100 h and 1400 h on June 21, at least 1 h earlier than the modeled arrival. While the flash flood may have been caused by the preceding rainfall alone (234.4 mm from 0600 h June 20 to 0600 h June 21), the discrepancies in peak discharges and the delayed arrival time suggest the possibility of damming and eventual breaching of the dam. Evidence of the damming was found at the channel constriction in Kipot. A landslide at this site was mapped, characterized, and inferred to have completely blocked the channel and caused the damming. Implications to flash flood risk assessment are discussed.

Loss and damage from floods and landslides are escalating in the Philippines due to increasing frequency and intensity of typhoons. This paper investigates the types and scale of loss and damage in two municipalities that were affected by typhoon-induced floods and landslides in 2004 and 2012. It assesses people’s preferences on adaptation measures and perceptions on human-nature links on occurrence of disasters. It reveals that human loss and property damage are causing psychological distress to affected people, undermining capacity to adapt to the next disasters. Many vulnerable people are not aware of the link between climate and land use change. Moreover, many depend on unsustainable land use for source of livelihoods particularly after disasters. The preference for measures to reduce landslide risks through reforestation and logging/mining prevention is thus low. Insurance is not a preferred mechanism for reducing risks because regular payment of premium is not affordable to vulnerable people.

Climate Change and Global Warming [Working Title]

Category 5 (C5) Super Typhoon Bopha, the world's worst storm of 2012, formed abnormally close to the West Pacific Equator, and Bopha's Mindanao landfall has the record equatorial proximity for C5 storms. Bopha generated a debris flow that buried 500 ha of New Bataan municipality and killed 566 people. New Bataan, established in 1968, had never experienced super typhoons and debris flows. We describe the respective histories of New Bataan and Super Typhoon Bopha; debris flows; and how population growth and unwise settlement practices contribute to Philippine "natural" disasters. The historical record of Mindanao tropical cyclones yields clues regarding how climate change may be exacerbating near-equatorial vulnerability to typhoons. Existing models of future typhoon behavior do not apply well to Mindanao because they evaluate only the tropical cyclones that occur during the main June-October typhoon season, and most Mindanao tropical cyclones occur in the off season. The models also ignore tropical depressions, the most frequent-and commonly lethal-Mindanao cyclones. Including these in annual tallies of Mindanao cyclones up to early 2018 reveals a pronounced and accelerating increase since 1990. Mindanao is susceptible to other natural hazards, including other consequences of climate change and volcanic activity.

Working Papers, 2013

This study quantitatively and qualitatively analyzed the impacts of natural disasters, particularly typhoons, floods and droughts, on agriculture, food security and the natural resources and environment in the Philippines. It aimed to propose recommendations as to how best to respond to the impacts of natural disasters and to identify further economic studies that can be undertaken. The study found that: a) typhoons, floods and droughts have an insignificant impact on agricultural production at the national level, yet typhoons have a significant negative impact on paddy rice production at the provincial level; b) typhoons, as exemplified by Ondoy and Pepeng in 2009, have a significant negative impact on the food security of the households in the affected areas; c) households have varying consumption and non-consumption strategies to cope with the impacts of typhoons; and d) the different impacts of typhoons, floods and droughts on the natural resources and environment have not been quantitatively assessed in detail but the available evidence suggests that these are also substantial. Based on its results and findings, the study recommends the following: a) Since typhoons have significant negative impacts on rice production at the local level as opposed to the national level, assistance for rice farmers and the agriculture sector as a whole should be made more site-specific, zeroing in on the affected areas that actually need it; b) Those assisting affected households and areas in overcoming the ill-effects of natural disasters should consider not only consumption strategies, such as the provision of emergency food aid, but also non-consumption strategies, such as the provision of post-disaster emergency employment; and c) While the available evidence suggests that the natural resources and environment sector is significantly affected by natural disasters, it is currently less considered, as attention is presently focused on agriculture. It may now be high time to provide concrete assistance to this sector, in particular by allocating for it defensive investments and rehabilitation expenditures to cope with these natural disasters.

Four successive tropical cyclones hit the Philippines and brought damages to several towns in the provinces of Quezon and Aurora between November 14 and December 4 in 2004. The municipalities of Infanta, Real, and General Nakar were severely damaged and as a result the communities were exposed to physical risks and experienced socio-economic difficulties. To affect policies and plans in avoiding risks brought about by disasters that may happen in the future, the vulnerabilities to rainfall-induced landslide of the three most devastated barangays in Infanta, Quezon, namely Pinaglapatan, Ilog, and Magsaysay, were determined using an agent-based model. This study determined the vulnerability of three communities based on the framework that vulnerability is influenced by the amount and intensity of rainfall received by the area in a given time, the conditions of the biophysical characteristics of the area, and the socio-economic profile of the community in the area. A time series model to capture the long-term rainfall pattern in the area was developed with consideration to the occurrences of extreme events. Biophysical studies were conducted on the study sites to determine their respective characteristics using topography (slope and elevation), land-use, and soil type as parameters. Through a respondent-type survey, the socio-economic profiles of the communities were characterized using income, livelihood, participation in social networks, and existence of community early warning systems, among others, as parameters. 139 International Journal of Sciences: Basic and Applied Research (IJSBAR)(2015) Volume 23, No 1, pp 138-166 Because of the barangays’ unique locations along the path of the 2004 landslide event, their respective biophysical characteristics are different from each other. A cluster analysis on the socio-economic parameters found that the communities are clustered into low (Cluster 1) and high (Cluster 2) vulnerabilities. Vulnerability indices generated from the agent-based model showed that those households belonging to Cluster 2 in Barangay Magsaysay were the most vulnerable while those belonging to Cluster 1 in Barangay Ilog were the least.

2010

It is currently feared that the increase in surface sea temperature resulting from increasing levels of greenhouse gases (GHGs) in the atmosphere could result in higher tropical cyclone intensity in the future. Although the economic consequences have been studied for a number of developed countries, very little work has been done on developing countries. The present paper assesses the likely effects that increased typhoon intensity can have on damage to housing by the year 2085 in the Philippines, using a Monte Carlo simulation that magnifies the intensity of historical tropical cyclones between the years 1978 and 2008. The simulation shows that direct damage to housing could increase by between 17% and 58%, depending on the adaptive capacity of each region in the Philippines, and assuming that the adaptive capacity remains constant between now and 2085.The results clearly suggest the need to increase the resilience of local communities to the possible consequences of climate change, providing thus an additional alert to the dangers of no action to mitigate against climate change.

2012

The designations employed and the presentation of the material in this publication do not imply the expression of any opinion whatsoever on the part of the Secretariat of the United Nations concerning the legal status of any country, territory, city or area or of its authorities, or concerning the delimitation of its frontiers or boundaries. This publication has been issued without formal editing. Mention of firm names and commercial products does not imply the endorsement of the United Nations. Reproduction and dissemination of material in this publication for educational or other noncommercial purposes are authorized without prior written permission from the copyright holder, provided that the source is fully acknowledged. Reproduction of material in this publication for sale or other commercial purposes, including publicity and advertising, is prohibited without the written permission of the copyright holder. Applications for such permission, with a statement of purpose and extent of the reproduction, should be addressed to the Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific and the United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Regional Office, AP, Thailand. vii For many in Asia and the Pacific, 2011 will be remembered as a year of large-scale disasters with devastating impacts on economies, communities and above all the lives of people across our region. The Great East Japan Earthquake, tsunami and the ensuing nuclear disaster, as well as the Southeast Asian floods, which so severely affected Thailand, were major contributors to the staggering $294 billion in regional economic losses-representing 80 per cent of global losses due to disasters in 2011. Disasters can affect developed and developing countries in equal measure. Yet risk accumulation, spurred by rapid economic growth, remains only partially understood. We are still working to identify the ways in which different components of risk-hazards, vulnerability and exposure-interact to increase total risk, and trigger damage. One of the most positive developments, however, is that, despite greater frequency of these events and increased damage to property and livelihoods, the death toll from such disasters as typhoons, floods and landslides in some subregions is decreasing. This is a significant accomplishment, and proves that better disaster risk management-investing in early warning systems, preparedness and social safety nets-saves lives. Economic development creates resilience when invested to reduce the vulnerability of people and communities. Collective actions can mitigate disasters, and protect our populations, but we are in a race against time. Exposure to disaster risk is growing faster than our ability to build resilience. Economic losses are rising, and communities are continually threatened. Rapid regional economic growth is also partially responsible for the rapid growth of disaster exposure. In Asia and the Pacific, over the past four decades, the average number of people exposed to annual flooding has increased from 29.5 to 63.8 million, whilst populations in cyclone-prone areas have grown from 71.8 million to 120.7 million. The region also represents more than 85 per cent of global economic exposure to tropical cyclones-pointing to a pattern of economic growth in typhoon prone coastlines and flood plains. When disasters hit, it is private citizens and communities who pay the highest price. In 2009, when Typhoon Ketsana caused damage of $58 million in the Lao People's Democratic Republic, 50 per cent of the losses were borne by small farmers. In the Philippines, the same typhoon caused damage of $4.3 billion-90 per cent of which were borne by poor urban households. Seventy per cent of the $9.7 billion in flood damage in Pakistan in 2010 was borne by poor households and small farmers. These figures highlight the ways in which socioeconomic vulnerabilities are interlinked. As economies falter, social spending is threatened. It is the poor, and particularly women, children, the elderly and the disabled, who Preface viii are the most vulnerable-first through direct losses and again through subsequent fiscal adjustments. It is therefore crucial that every effort be made to protect development gains which benefit the poorest and most vulnerable. While they are the hardest hit in a disaster, vulnerability can increase for everyone in a community. Our shared challenge is to control both the growing rate of exposure and rising vulnerability. Exposure to hazards has multiplied as urban centers grow and people and economic activities expand into increasingly exposed and hazard-prone land. It is also a concern that smaller economies, those that have less diversified economic structures, and countries with high fiscal deficits, show greater strains of vulnerability even when faced with relatively small-scale disasters. Land use and urban planning, ecosystem management and disaster recovery-the very tools devised to deal with exposure to risks-are not yielding the desired results. Globalization of supply chains means that any disruption to a single node of production may lead to a breakdown of the entire production chain, as happened in 2011 Thai floods and the Great East Japan Earthquake. And, in the developed countries of the Asia-Pacific region, where prosperity should be used to address the many downsides of economic growth, disaster losses are growing most rapidly. There are, however, some outstanding efforts being made to reverse these trends. Bangladesh's investment of more than $10 billion in the past 35 years in disaster risk reduction has resulted in lower disaster losses. It is one of only a handful of countries in the region to have done so. China is another, with its 2011-2015 Comprehensive Disaster Prevention and Reduction Plan which aim to reduce disaster losses annually to less than 1.5 per cent GDP through investment measures across government sectors. Bangladesh, India, Pakistan, the Philippines and Thailand have shown that well-targeted social protection measures are not only affordable but that they also reduce vulnerability to a great extent. Innovative technologies in information, communication and space-based applications have been put to good use by several countries to fill critical gaps in the information supply chain. This report demonstrates that countries increasingly embrace the view that minimizing disaster risk is essential for achieving sustainable development. Many have started to take action-building the resilience of people and communities. One of the key Rio+20 outcomes is stronger political commitment and recognition that disaster risk reduction and building resilience need to be addressed with a "renewed sense of urgency in the context of sustainable development and poverty eradication". The disasters of the past two years have defined the consequences of failing to fully apply the combined tenets of disaster risk reduction and sustainable development.-it is now time to act. We are pleased, therefore, to present the Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2012: Reducing Vulnerability and Exposure to Disasters, to the ministers, policymakers and other participants at the Fifth Asian Ministerial Conference on Disaster Risk Reduction in Yogyakarta, Indonesia. We believe these findings will prove useful in the pursuit of sustainable development and in the implementation of future disaster risk reduction agendas. Our organizations, and those other dedicated partners with whom we work, look forward to joining you in making a safer and continuously prosperous Asia-Pacific region.

IAMURE International Journal of Ecology and Conservation, 2012

Flood disaster poses a serious threat to people and property. As society progresses, it constantly modify the environmental landscape which heightens the risk of a disaster. Vital step to disaster reduction should be directed to a comprehensive evaluation of the likelihood of potential losses such as destruction of property and/ or deaths. This study aims to assess the level of risk associated to flood damage and casualty at Community level. The level of risk depends on two interrelated factors: level of hazard and the level of its consequence. A Modified Risk Assessment Framework was utilized to evaluate each of the components of risk. Results significantly matched the geological hazard assessment conducted by local experts. Eleven Villages are high risk of loss of life while eight Villages are high risk of property damage. Restricting physical developments, limiting population expansion, investing on structural measures, boosting the socio-economic condition and strengthening the environmental regulations may help reduce the risk.

RSIS Commentaries, 2009

The devastation and catastrophe wrought by Typhoon Kestana on the Philippines' capital Manila reflect a huge gap between rising vulnerabilities and preparedness at the national and regional levels. As more climate change results in more devastating cyclones, how can the region better prepare for future emergencies?