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2010
The objective of this paper is to analyze the relationship between transport and regional equity in Minas Gerais (Brazil). Furthermore, the existence of a trade-off between economic performance and regional equity is investigated as well. To do so, we develop a spatial computable general equilibrium model based on Bröcker's approach to implement comparative static analysis, explicitly incorporating iceberg transportation costs. Four activities are modeled, namely, production, final demand, transportation and exports. Two production factors are assumed: labor and other factors. In the model, there are twelve domestic regions and three external regions. We develop four counterfactual experiments based on decreases in transportation costs due to a "distance shortening." The main findings indicate that if the transport infrastructure improvement is focused only among poor regions, the promotion of the regional equity is insignificant. If the transport infrastructure improvement links are concentrated among rich regions, there is an increase in regional income inequalities. However, if the improvements are targeted to the roads linking poor regions and rich ones, there is promotion of regional equity.
2004
The purpose of this paper was threefold. First, we presented a flexible analytical framework, based on sound and consistent economic theory and data, in order to assess the likely state/sectoral/income effects of policy changes in Brazil. This is the first fully operational interstate CGE model implemented for the Brazilian economy, based on previous work by the author and associates. Among
Revista Econômica, 2018
Este artigo analisa os impactos dos diferentes modais de transporte nos fluxos de comércio internacional dos estados brasileiros. Para isso, usamos a equação gravitacional estimando três modelos diferentes: dados agrupados; efeitos fixos; e efeitos aleatórios. Além disso, incluímos variáveis para os principais modais de transporte utilizados no país, isto é, modal rodoviário, ferroviário, aquático e aéreo. Finalmente, uma vez que há evidências de que existe correlação espacial nos dados, incluímos um modelo de econometria espacial, o modelo spatial lag of X (SLX). Usamos um painel que incluiu dados de comércio de 2012, 2013, 2014 e 2015 para todos os 27 estados do Brasil para os principais parceiros comerciais do país. Nossos resultados mostram que o comércio dos estados brasileiros é impactado de forma significativa pela infra-estrutura de transporte dos estados, especialmente o transporte rodoviário, mas também o transporte ferroviário e aquático. Além disso, descobrimos que a inf...
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
This paper studies regional impact of three mature public surface transportation infrastructures in the Northeast corridor of the US: highway, public railway and public transit. Infrastructure stock is valued in real terms from 1991 to 2009. A spatial panel approach with fixed effects is adopted to test the hypothesis of spillovers by allowing for spatial dependence. The result shows that public surface transportation infrastructure in general does have a significant impact on regional output, most of which is from spillover effect; highways have an overwhelming influence through both local effects and spillover effects. The impacts from public railway and public transit are not significant, but transit does show a positive though small spillover effect.
Transportation Research Part A: Policy and Practice, 2014
We rely on the economic theory approach to index numbers to improve the existing definitions and decompositions of variations in generalized transport costs (GTCs). As a value index, we decompose GTCs into price and quantity indices associated to economic-market-costs and infrastructure variables-distance and time within a network. The methodology allows the accurate identification of the sources of GTCs decline. We illustrate it for the case of road freight transportation in Spain between 1980 and 2007 and at a highly detailed geographical level. Average GTCs weighted by trade flows have decreased by 16.3%, with infrastructure driving that reduction. We find large territorial disparities in GTCs, but also significant geographical clusters where the market and network indices show spatial association.
Papers of the Regional Science Association, 1982
In this paper, we demonstrate how one can interpret road improvements as productivity improvements in the transportation services industry. We then translate such economic gains into a general equilibrium context in the case of the Peace Bridge between Buffalo, New York, and Fort Erie, Ontario.
2008
We set out to investigate whether transportation improvements can trigger welfare economic impacts in a peripheral region. The paper addresses this issue through the development of a general equilibrium labor market model with a transportation component. The model is implemented to a set of 101 core and peripheral cities in Israel. Numeric simulations are carried out to test the research hypotheses regarding positive relationship between improved accessibility and enhanced economic welfare. Economic welfare is measured in terms of efficiency and equity impacts. The results of the simulations show that transportation improvements in the form of auto travel time reductions may lead to substantial welfare benefits in the peripheral region considered in terms of increased output, productivity and wages.
2011
We use the economic theory approach to index numbers in order to improve the existing definitions and decompositions of generalized transport costs (GTCs), and thus to obtain a better understanding of their economic and infrastructure determinants. Using this approach we accurately measure the contribution made to reducing GTCs by the variation in operating costs and accessibility variables, and discuss to what extent transportation policy has been successful in reducing GTCs in terms of market competition and infrastructure investments. To implement the optimizing behaviour of transportation firms when choosing minimum cost itineraries, we compile a new economic database on road freight transportation at a highly detailed provincial level, which is then embedded into a GIS to show the digitalized road networks corresponding to five-year intervals between 1980 and 2007. Average GTCs weighted by trade flows have decreased by 16.3% in Spain, with infrastructure policy leading the way in providing notable accessibility improvements in terms of lower times and distances. The contribution of infrastructure is double that of economic cost, whose trends are mainly driven by technological and market determinants rather than by specific competition and regulatory policies promoted by the administrations. We find large territorial disparities in GTC levels and variations, but also significant clusters where the market and network effects on GTC reduction show relevant and diverse degrees of spatial association. We finally conclude that after three decades of active transportation policy aimed mainly at intensifying investment in road infrastructure, there has been a significant increase in territorial cohesion in terms of GTCs and their components. We are grateful to Carlos Llano and the C-intereg project team for sharing the data on Spanish interregional trade (www.c-intereg.es), as well as for their helpful comments and suggestions. We have also benefited from conversations with Pierre-Philippe Combes and participants at the 57 th Annual North American Meeting of the RSAI, Nov. 10-13, Denver.
The evaluation of the social impacts of transport policies is attracting growing attention in recent years. Yet, this literature is still predominately focused on developed countries. The goal of this research is to investigate how investments in public transport networks can reshape social and geographical inequalities in access to opportunities in a developing country, using the city of Rio de Janeiro (Brazil) as a case study. Recent mega-events, including the 2014 Football World Cup and the 2016 Olympic Games, have triggered substantial investment in the city’s transport system. More recently, though, bus services in Rio have been rationalized and reduced as a response to a fiscal crisis and a drop in passenger demand, giving a unique opportunity to look at the distributional effects this cycle of investment and disinvestment have had on peoples’ access to educational and employment opportunities. Based on a before-and-after comparison of Rio’s public transport network, this study uses a spatial regression model and cluster analysis to estimate how accessibility gains vary across different income groups and areas of the city between April 2014 and March 2017. The results show that recent cuts in service levels have offset the potential benefits of newly added public transport infrastructure in Rio. Average access by public transport to jobs and public high-schools decreased approximately 4% and 6% in the period, respectively. Nonetheless, wealthier areas had on average small but statistically significant higher gains in access to schools and job opportunities than poorer areas. These findings suggest that, contrary to the official discourses of transport legacy, recent transport policies in Rio have exacerbated rather than reduced socio-spatial inequalities in access to opportunities.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
A Leontief-Miyazawa model was estimated to measure the income distribution effects of changes in the modal composition of cargo transportation in Brazil. It was calibrated for year of 2004, and considers 31 sectors (4 of which are related to cargo transportation: road, rail, water, and air), and 10 income brackets. A transfer of 10% of road transportation to rail or water was simulated. The results show that the relative impacts are small, considering the size of the Brazilian economy and the small importance of the transportation sector. Increases in the share of rail or water transportation will increase GDP and personal income, but will decrease employment.
2002
This paper analyses the impact of transport infrastructures on the economic growth of both regions and sectors, distinguishing among modes of transport. It also attempts to capture the spillover effects or network effects associated with transport infrastructures. Two different methodologies are used: the first adopts an accounting approach on the basis of a regression on total factor productivity (TFP) indices, the second uses econometric estimates of the production function. Our study obtains very similar elasticities with both methodologies for the private sector of the economy, both for the aggregate capital stock of transport infrastructures and for the various types of infrastructure. Important network effects of these infrastructures on the private sector have also been observed. However, the disaggregated results for sectors of production are not conclusive.
2013
Measures of the value of public investments are critical inputs into the policy making process. In the existing literature public investments are often valued through their effects on local equilibrium factor prices wages and land rents as first suggested by Rosen (1974) and Roback (1982). We extend this methodology to measure the value of public transport infrastructure, while taking into account the network character of this amenity. Furthermore, we disentangle and calculate the relative importance of various economic effects induced by transport infrastructure, including the effects on: modal split, spatial distribution of economic activities, firms’ productivity.
Journal of Transport Geography, 2018
Territorial cohesion and improvement of accessibility can be considered the main goals that are at the core of the EU Cohesion Policy. Yet, while there exists an abundant literature on the impact of transport infrastructure investment on the overall accessibility level, very few studies try to verify the possible link between accessibility and regional economic development. This issue seems to be particularly interesting in the case of the EU's New Member States that have experienced a big push to develop their transportation networks in the last decade. Hence, in the present paper we apply the potential accessibility indicator for Poland in order to verify the general productivity effects of major transport infrastructure investments between 2004 and 2014. We find that accessibility improvement seems to be weakly but positively correlated with growth in regional employment. However, the impact on the growth of regional production is not statistically significant. We also find that, once nonlinearity is assumed, accessibility improvement does not have a statistically significant impact on urban areas. At the same time it is in fact negatively correlated with output growth in the case of rural areas.
2014
This paper surveys the theoretical and empirical literature on the relationship between the spatial distribution of economic activity and transportation costs. We develop a multi-region model of economic geography that we use to understand the general equilibrium implications of transportation infrastructure improvements within and between locations for wages, population, trade and industry composition. Guided by the predictions of this model, we review the empirical literature on the effects of transportation infrastructure improvements on economic development, paying particular attention to the use of exogenous sources of variation in the construction of transportation infrastructure. We examine evidence from different spatial scales, between and within cities. We outline a variety of areas for further research, including distinguishing reallocation from growth and dynamics.
Journal of Infrastructure, Policy and Development
The relationship between transport infrastructure and accessibility has long stood as a central research area in regional and transport economics. Often invoked by governments to justify large public spending on infrastructure, the study of this relationship has led to conflicting arguments on the role that transport plays in productivity. This paper expands the existing body of knowledge by adopting a spatial analysis (with spillover effects) that considers the physical effects of investment in terms of accessibility (using distinct metrics). The authors have used the Portuguese experience at regional level over the last 30 years as a case study. The main conclusions are as follows: i) the choice of transport variables matters when explaining productivity, and more complex accessibility indicators are more correlated with; ii) it is important to account for spill-over effects; and iii) the evidence of granger causality is not widespread but depends on the regions.
1994
Estimating the spatial economic impacts of transport infrastructure is an unsolved issue that has plagued economic science for a long time. This paper will give an overview of the basic problem, the contributions of the empirical literature, the modelling approaches used until now, a recent application, and a perspective on how to proceed.
Transportation, 2011
The case for including agglomeration benefits within transport appraisal rests on an assumed causality between access to economic mass and productivity. Such causality is justified by the theory of agglomeration, but is difficult to establish empirically because estimates may be subject to sources of bias from endogeneity and confounding. The paper shows that conventional panel methods used to address these problems are unreliable due to the highly persistent nature of accessibility measures. Adopting an alternative approach, by applying semiparametric techniques to restricted sub-samples of the data, we find considerable nonlinearity in the relationship between accessibility and productivity with no positive effect to be discerned over broad ranges of the data. A key conclusion is that we are unable to distinguish the role of accessibility from other potential explanations for productivity increases. For transport appraisal, this implies that the use of conventional point elasticity estimates could be highly misleading.
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