Rapid earthquake loss assessment after damaging earthquakes

Earthquake Spectra, 2020

The United States Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) alert system provides rapid (10–20 min) but general loss estimates of ranges of fatalities and economic impact for significant global earthquakes. FEMA’s Hazus software, in contrast, provides time-consuming (2–5 h) but more detailed loss information quantified in terms of structural, social, and economic consequences estimated at a much higher spatial resolution for large domestic earthquakes. We developed a rapid hybrid post-earthquake product that takes advantage of the best of both loss models. First, though, we conducted a systematic comparison of loss estimates from PAGER with Hazus for all significant, relatively recent, domestic earthquakes for which adequate loss data exist—augmented by a dozen ShakeMap scenarios. The systematic comparison of Hazus and PAGER losses provided the basis for selecting the specific loss metrics to present from each system. The signature product will...

2004

PAGES 565,569-570

International Journal of Safety and Security Engineering, 2017

Earthquake loss estimation (ELE), generally also referred to as earthquake risk assessment, is a comparably young research discipline which, at first, relied on empirical observations based on a macroseismic intensity scale. Later, with the advent of methodologies and procedures that are based on theoretical simulation in estimating physical damage under earthquake loading, the analytical approach for ELE was formulated. The open-source software SELENA, which is a joint development of NORSAR (Norway) and the University of Alicante (Spain), is undergoing a constant development. One of the more recent features being included is the possibility to address topographic amplification of seismic ground motion. Additionally, SELENA has been adapted by including various methods for the analytical computation of structural damage and loss. SELENA now offers complete flexibility in the use of different types of fragility curves based on various ground motion intensity parameters (e.g. PGA, Sa, Sd), which has been suggested by many recently released guidelines (e.g. FEMA P-58, GEM-ASV, SYNER-G, HAZUS-MH). Besides, under the framework of the ongoing Horizon 2020 LIQUEFACT project, SELENA is extended in order to allow the consideration of liquefaction-induced ground displacements and respective structural damage. In general, software tools for ELE are particularly useful in two different settings, i.e., for disaster management and (re)insurance purposes. Both sectors pose very different demands on ELE studies: while the (re)insurance sector is foremost interested in the direct and indirect economic losses caused by an earthquake to its insured physical assets, those institutions (often governmental and nongovernmental organizations) in charge of disaster emergency management and response are more interested in reliable estimates on human losses and the potential short-and long-term social consequences. Being aware about these peculiar differences between software tools for disaster management and insurance applications, NORSAR/UA thereby offers two in its core similar software tools, i.e., the opensource software SELENA and the proprietary software PML (Probable Maximum Loss) which is actively used by the insurance association in Chile (South America) since 2011.

Abstract. Rapid loss estimation after potentially damaging earthquakes is critical for effective emergency response and public information. A methodology and software package, ELER-Earthquake Loss Estimation Routine, for rapid estimation of earthquake shaking and losses throughout the Euro-Mediterranean region was developed under the Joint Research Activity-3 (JRA3) of the EC FP6 Project entitled “Network of Research Infrastructures for European Seismology-NERIES”. Recently, a new version (v2.0) of ELER software has been released. The multi-level methodology developed is capable of incorporating regional variability and uncertainty originating from ground motion predictions, fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of physical and social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and the associated vulnerability relationships. Although primarily intended for quasi real-time estimation of earthquake shaking and losses, the routine is also equally capable of incorporating scenario-based earthquake loss assessments. This paper introduces the urban earthquake loss assessment module (Level 2) of the ELER software which makes use of the most detailed inventory databases of physical and social elements at risk in combination with the analytical vulnerability relationships and building damage-related casualty vulnerability models for the estimation of building damage and casualty distributions, respectively. Spectral capacitybased loss assessment methodology and its vital components are presented. The analysis methods of the Level 2 module, i.e. Capacity Spectrum Method (ATC-40, 1996), Modified Acceleration-Displacement Response Spectrum Method (FEMA 440, 2005), Reduction Factor Method (Fajfar, 2000) and Coefficient Method (ASCE 41-06, 2006), are applied to the selected building types for validation and verification purposes. The damage estimates are compared to the results obtained from the other studies available in the literature, i.e. SELENA v4.0 (Molina et al., 2008) and ATC-55 (Yang, 2005). An urban loss assessment exercise for a scenario earthquake for the city of Istanbul is conducted and physical and social losses are presented. Damage to the urban environment is compared to the results obtained from similar software, i.e. KOERILoss (KOERI, 2002) and DBELA (Crowley et al., 2004). The European rapid loss estimation tool is expected to help enable effective emergency response, on both local and global level, as well as public information

Portugal has its past marked by the occurrence of very destructive earthquakes. In the wellknown 1755 Lisbon earthquake, despite the various estimates proposed by the scientific community it is fair to assume that in Lisbon, more than 50% of the buildings were heavily damaged or destroyed and about 10% of the population perished. In the beginning of the last century, a moderate event of magnitude 6.6 Mw struck the village of Benavente, causing 46 fatalities and damaging more than 3000 dwellings. Besides this moderate seismicity, the Portuguese building stock in highly populated centres is characterized by a large fraction of masonry buildings, which typically have a higher seismic vulnerability. For these reasons, it is clear that a reliable and accurate platform for damage estimation based on deterministic earthquake scenarios is fundamental. This study provides an overview of the initial development of a damage estimation framework for Portugal, as well as a description of the components and input models required for the various calculations. This system has been established at the Faculty of Engineering of the University of Porto, and it will allow not only earthquake engineers and risk modelers to access damage information and launch scenario calculations, but also other experts and decision makers whose needs might have a particular purpose, such as emergency planning.

Journal of Earthquake Engineering, 2008

Natural Hazards, 2006

The National Science Council (NSC) of Taiwan started the HAZ-Taiwan project in 1998 to promote researches on seismic hazard analysis, structural damage assessment, and socio-economic loss estimation. The associated application software, ''Taiwan Earthquake Loss Estimation System (TELES)'', integrates various inventory data and analysis modules to fulfill three objectives. First, it helps to obtain reliable estimates of seismic hazards and losses soon after occurrence of large earthquakes. Second, it helps to simulate earthquake scenarios and to provide useful estimates for local governments or public services to propose their seismic disaster mitigation plans. Third, it helps to provide catastrophic risk management tools, such as proposing the seismic insurance policy for residential buildings. This paper focuses on the development and application of analysis modules used in early loss estimation system. These modules include assessments of ground motion intensity, soil liquefaction potential, building damage and casualty.

For almost-real time estimation of the ground shaking and losses after a major earthquake in the Euro-Mediterranean region the JRA-3 component of the EU Project entitled "Network of research Infrastructures for European Seismology, NERIES" foresees: 1. Finding of the most likely location of the source of the earthquake using regional seismotectonic data base, supported, if and when possible, by the estimation of fault rupture parameters from rapid inversion of data from on-line regional broadband stations. 2. Estimation of the spatial distribution of selected ground motion parameters at engineering bedrock through region specific ground motion attenuation relationships and/or actual physical simulation of ground motion. 3. Estimation of the spatial distribution of site-specific ground selected motion parameters using regional geology (or urban geotechnical information) database using appropriate amplification models. 4. Estimation of the losses and uncertainties at various orders of sophistication (buildings, casualties) Main objective of this study is to develop a methodology for real time estimation of losses after a major earthquake in the Euro-Mediterranean region. The multi-level methodology being developed together with researchers from Imperial College, NORSAR and ETH-Zurich is capable of incorporating regional variabilities and sources of uncertainty stemming from ground motion predictions, fault finiteness, site modifications, inventory of physical ane social elements subjected to earthquake hazard and the associated vulnerability relationships. Within the scope of this paper, results obtained from a pilot application of this methodology for the 1999 Kocaeli earthquake are presented and comparisons with the observed losses are made.

Having the ability of near real-time damage assessment would benefit earthquake emergency response operations in Taiwan greatly. Thus, we established an empirical method of assessing the near real-time damage using the rapid reporting system in Taiwan. Relationships between peak ground velocity and damage rates (fatality rate, total and partial household collapsing rates) during the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake were determined in this study. The distribution of the peak ground velocity can be mapped within minutes of post-initiation of a strong earthquake by the rapid reporting system of the Taiwan Central Weather Bureau (Wu et al. 2001). By correlating peak ground velocity with damage rates gathered by the rapid reporting system, a near real-time damage assessment can be issued, in addition to the epicenter, magnitude and intensity.

Geosciences

The number of fatalities and injured was calculated, using the computer code QLARM and its data set and assuming information about the Irpinia 1980 earthquake became available in near-real-time. The casualties calculated for a point source, an approximate line source and a well-defined line source would have become available about 30 min, 60 min and years after the main shock, respectively. The first estimate would have been satisfactory, indicating the seriousness of the disaster. The subsequent loss estimate after 60 min would have defined the human losses accurately, and the ultimate estimate was most accurate. In 2009, QLARM issued a correct estimate of the number of fatalities within 22 min of the M6.3 L’Aquila main shock. These two results show that the number of casualties and injuries in large and major earthquakes in Italy can be estimated correctly within less than an hour by using QLARM.