Risk Perception: A Critical Element of Aviation Safety

This article describes an exploratory investigation of the risk perceptions of experts and novices in relation to helicopter operations, under conditions where the participants are matched on various characteristics previously found to affect perceptions, such as demographic, gender, and background factors. The study reports considerable evidence of perceptual differences between the two participant groups (i.e., expert pilots and candidate pilots). We find that the experts' perceptions of relative risks are more veridical, in terms of their higher correlation with the true relative frequencies. A significant positive correlation between the flight hours and the contextual risk-taking tendency is also shown, leading the experienced pilots' choices toward risky alternatives in scenarios-a potential result of their overconfidence based on superior task performance. Possible explanations are offered for the findings and potential avenues for future research are identified.

Proceedings of the Human Factors and Ergonomics Society Annual Meeting, 1996

Journal of Safety Research, 2008

Introduction: According to Lopes [Lopes, L.L. (1987). Between hope and fear: The psychology of risk. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 20, 255-295] tolerance of risk may be governed by sensitivity to either the opportunities for gain or threats of loss involved. Methods: In the initial study, qualified pilots were presented with 36 written flight scenarios that varied in the levels of opportunity and threat present. The pilots rated the likelihood that they would undertake each flight. Pilots were largely risk averse, as their ratings were all significantly influenced by threat. Results: The pilots whose ratings were significantly influenced by opportunity had been involved in more hazardous aviation incidents than the other pilots. In the final study, 32 qualified pilots completed both the risk tolerance measure and a simulated flight into adverse weather. The pilots who continued flying into adverse weather were less risk averse compared to the pilots who diverted. This further highlighted the link between risk tolerance and risk-taking, and suggested that some pilots may fly into adverse weather because of a greater tolerance of risk. Impact on Industry:The studies provide evidence that a measure of risk tolerance can predict potential accident involvement amongst general aviation pilots.

HCII, 2016

This study linked aircrew risk-taking behavior to aviation loss, and in this relationship it examined the moderating role of phase-of-flight. First, it developed a measurement model in view of prior accident causation theories and findings of 715 general aviation accidents in Pakistan over a period spanning 2000-2014. Later, it espoused this model for hypotheses testing using original data from 224 randomly chosen accidents and assessed the model through structural path analysis. Results indicated a positive relationship between air-crew risk-taking behavior and aviation loss, and significant moderating role of phase-of-flight.

2019

The purpose of this study was to identify factors that contributed to general aviation (GA) pilots' level of risk perception, which could then be manifested as an increase in risk tolerance. The study used an explanatory correlational design to determine what factors were related to risk perception. Research factors included gender, age, marital status, race/ethnicity, education level, flight hours, single-and multi-engine hours, hours as PIC, type of flight training, number of FAA licenses/ratings, number of hazardous events pilots were involved in, self-efficacy, aviation safety attitudes, level of psychological distress, and locus of control. The dependent variable was risk perception. Predictors were partitioned into three sets, A = Demographics, B = Flight Experience, and C = Affective Domain, and the sample consisted of 93 GA pilots. Participants were solicited from member institutions of the University Aviation Association. A hierarchical regression analysis with set entry order A-B-C found no significant factors at the first two stages, including corresponding increments. When the Affective Domain entered the analysis, age, number of hazardous events, and locus of control had a significant relationship with risk perception. Age had a iv direct relationship, hazardous events had an indirect relationship, and locus of control had a positive relationship. The increment of the Affective Domain also was significant, and an independent follow-up analysis revealed psychological distress had a significant and direct relationship with risk perception. An independent mediation analysis also found the number of hazardous events was partially mediated by psychological distress, and this mediation reduced the effect of hazardous events on risk perception. The findings of the study did not provide sufficient evidence to support or refute Bandura's (1977) self-efficacy theory, partially supported Ajzen's (1992) theory of planned behavior with respect to locus of control, and supported habituated action theory. The study's findings provided compelling evidence that the affective domain, particularly aviation safety attitudes, psychological distress, and locus of control, is important to understanding GA pilots' level of risk perception.

Studies of risk perception examine the judgments people make when they are asked to characterize and evaluate hazardous activities and technologies. This research aims to aid risk analysis and policy-making by (i) providing a basis for understanding and anticipating public responses to hazards and (ii) improving the communication of risk information among lay people, technical experts, and decision-makers. This work assumes that those who promote and regulate health and safety need to understand how people think about and respond to risk. Without such understanding, well-intended policies may be ineffective.

According to the scientific principle of falsification, no knowledge can categorically be proven to be true: science is just a collection of theories which have not (yet) been proven false. This humility must also extend to the social sciences. Some existing aviation human factors and safety 'knowledge' has been falsified based on empirical evidence, yet still this falsified 'knowledge'-or more correctly: these assumptions-seems to persist and in fact actually dominates safety management practices in the commercial air transport industry. This research attempts to clarify some of these disproven yet enduring assumptions, and to map out their prevalence across different aviation domains (e.g. flight operations, maintenance, etc.). The variations in safety perspectives across the industry will be characterised based on a survey and interviews with a cross-section of aviation professionals. This empirical data can be used by researchers and safety management to better understand their target population and ensure their safety models and intervention strategies are appropriate. 1 HARMONY AND DISCORD IN THE AVIATION INDUSTRY 1.1 Commercial Aviation: A Mature and Standardised System Commercial air transport is frequently heralded as the safest of all public transport modes. This is not by chance. An enormous amount of reflection, resources, and trial and error has gone into building up the modern-day aviation system. It is a system comprised of much more than just (well-trained) pilots flying around in (sophisticated, well-maintained) aircraft. There are many mature layers of organisational infrastructure surrounding the core activity.

Journal of the Academy of Marketing Science, 1982

1989

2016

Aircraft and flight system accidents due to human error sare more common than accidents due to mechanical failure. This study aims to determine the risk perception of Turkishhelicopterpilots and the relationship between their flight experience decision making styles. In this context, the analyses are conducted among helicopter pilots flying in accordance with general aviation rules. In this context, analyses are conducted with the participation of helicopter pilots flying according to general aviation rules (n=308) in Turkey. In the light of these analyses, it is seen that there is a relationship between the risk perceptions and decision making styles of the pilots. Also, there are considerable differences found between the flight hours and decision making styles of the pilots. However, there are no significant differences between the ages and the decision making styles. The results are discussed in comparison to the studies in the literature.