The Role of Risk in Pilots' Perceptions of Problem Situations

This article describes an exploratory investigation of the risk perceptions of experts and novices in relation to helicopter operations, under conditions where the participants are matched on various characteristics previously found to affect perceptions, such as demographic, gender, and background factors. The study reports considerable evidence of perceptual differences between the two participant groups (i.e., expert pilots and candidate pilots). We find that the experts' perceptions of relative risks are more veridical, in terms of their higher correlation with the true relative frequencies. A significant positive correlation between the flight hours and the contextual risk-taking tendency is also shown, leading the experienced pilots' choices toward risky alternatives in scenarios-a potential result of their overconfidence based on superior task performance. Possible explanations are offered for the findings and potential avenues for future research are identified.

Proceedings of the 15th IFAC World Congress, 2002, 2002

At the end, risk taking is the cause of almost all accidents. But it is not always easy to find those who TOOK the risks; too often they are confused with those who RAN the risks." (Wagenaar and Keren, 1986) Abstract: Designers of new automated systems typically conduct human-reliability analyses to account for potential human errors that may contribute to system risk. In aviation, the National Transportation Safety Board (1994) found that the second most common type of error in accidents was tactical decision errors. Efforts to improve flight safety frequently involve training crews in effective decision-making. One fact that has become apparent in developing such training is that decision-making depends critically on the crew's perceptions of the risks entailed by various threats in the environment. This paper addresses two issues critical to improving the quality of aviation decision-making. (1) How do crews perceive risks associated with aviation decisions? (2) How does risk perception influence flight crews' decision-making processes? Research findings that address these questions will be presented, along with implications for improving flight crew decision-making. Copyright ©2002 IFAC.

2008

Fischer, U. (Nov. 2004). The role of risk perception in naturalistic decision making. Talk given to the Industrial and Organizational Psychology Group at

2016

Aircraft and flight system accidents due to human error sare more common than accidents due to mechanical failure. This study aims to determine the risk perception of Turkishhelicopterpilots and the relationship between their flight experience decision making styles. In this context, the analyses are conducted among helicopter pilots flying in accordance with general aviation rules. In this context, analyses are conducted with the participation of helicopter pilots flying according to general aviation rules (n=308) in Turkey. In the light of these analyses, it is seen that there is a relationship between the risk perceptions and decision making styles of the pilots. Also, there are considerable differences found between the flight hours and decision making styles of the pilots. However, there are no significant differences between the ages and the decision making styles. The results are discussed in comparison to the studies in the literature.

Journal of Safety Research, 2008

Introduction: According to Lopes [Lopes, L.L. (1987). Between hope and fear: The psychology of risk. Advances in Experimental Social Psychology, 20, 255-295] tolerance of risk may be governed by sensitivity to either the opportunities for gain or threats of loss involved. Methods: In the initial study, qualified pilots were presented with 36 written flight scenarios that varied in the levels of opportunity and threat present. The pilots rated the likelihood that they would undertake each flight. Pilots were largely risk averse, as their ratings were all significantly influenced by threat. Results: The pilots whose ratings were significantly influenced by opportunity had been involved in more hazardous aviation incidents than the other pilots. In the final study, 32 qualified pilots completed both the risk tolerance measure and a simulated flight into adverse weather. The pilots who continued flying into adverse weather were less risk averse compared to the pilots who diverted. This further highlighted the link between risk tolerance and risk-taking, and suggested that some pilots may fly into adverse weather because of a greater tolerance of risk. Impact on Industry:The studies provide evidence that a measure of risk tolerance can predict potential accident involvement amongst general aviation pilots.

2019

The purpose of this study was to identify factors that contributed to general aviation (GA) pilots' level of risk perception, which could then be manifested as an increase in risk tolerance. The study used an explanatory correlational design to determine what factors were related to risk perception. Research factors included gender, age, marital status, race/ethnicity, education level, flight hours, single-and multi-engine hours, hours as PIC, type of flight training, number of FAA licenses/ratings, number of hazardous events pilots were involved in, self-efficacy, aviation safety attitudes, level of psychological distress, and locus of control. The dependent variable was risk perception. Predictors were partitioned into three sets, A = Demographics, B = Flight Experience, and C = Affective Domain, and the sample consisted of 93 GA pilots. Participants were solicited from member institutions of the University Aviation Association. A hierarchical regression analysis with set entry order A-B-C found no significant factors at the first two stages, including corresponding increments. When the Affective Domain entered the analysis, age, number of hazardous events, and locus of control had a significant relationship with risk perception. Age had a iv direct relationship, hazardous events had an indirect relationship, and locus of control had a positive relationship. The increment of the Affective Domain also was significant, and an independent follow-up analysis revealed psychological distress had a significant and direct relationship with risk perception. An independent mediation analysis also found the number of hazardous events was partially mediated by psychological distress, and this mediation reduced the effect of hazardous events on risk perception. The findings of the study did not provide sufficient evidence to support or refute Bandura's (1977) self-efficacy theory, partially supported Ajzen's (1992) theory of planned behavior with respect to locus of control, and supported habituated action theory. The study's findings provided compelling evidence that the affective domain, particularly aviation safety attitudes, psychological distress, and locus of control, is important to understanding GA pilots' level of risk perception.

Applied Psychophysiology and Biofeedback

In this paper we examined plan continuation error (PCE), a well known error made by pilots consisting in continuing the flight plan despite adverse meteorological conditions. Our hypothesis is that a large range of strong negative emotional consequences, including those induced by economic pressure, are associated with the decision to revise the flight plan and favor PCE. We investigated the economic hypothesis with a simplified landing task (reproduction of a real aircraft instrument) in which uncertainty and reward were manipulated. Heart rate (HR), heart rate variability (HRV) and eye tracking measurements were performed to get objective clues both on the cognitive and emotional state of the volunteers. Results showed that volunteers made more risky decisions under the influence of the financial incentive, in particular when uncertainty was high. Psychophysiological examination showed that HR increased and total HRV decreased in response to the cognitive load generated by the task. In addition, HR also increased in response to the financially motivated condition. Eventually, fixation times increased when uncertainty was high, confirming the difficulty in obtaining/interpreting information from the instrument in this condition. These results support the assumption that risky-decision making observed in pilots can be, at least partially, explained by a shift from cold to hot (emotional) decision-making in response to economic constraints and uncertainty.

HCII, 2016

This study linked aircrew risk-taking behavior to aviation loss, and in this relationship it examined the moderating role of phase-of-flight. First, it developed a measurement model in view of prior accident causation theories and findings of 715 general aviation accidents in Pakistan over a period spanning 2000-2014. Later, it espoused this model for hypotheses testing using original data from 224 randomly chosen accidents and assessed the model through structural path analysis. Results indicated a positive relationship between air-crew risk-taking behavior and aviation loss, and significant moderating role of phase-of-flight.

IJERLAS , 2023

Aviation safety is the ultimate goal of aviation in both civil and military in several accident reports and data from the aviation safety directorate of the Indonesian Army Aviation Center (Puspenerbad) human factors rank first cause of accidents as much as 74%. The purpose of this study is to determine the magnitude of the influence Flight Experience and Flight Proficiency against pilots decision making which has implications for aviation safety. The method in this study used quantitative descriptive analysis, with 99 respondents. Data collection is carried out by distributing questionnaires Google Forms and analyzed with the app SmartPLS 4.0. The conclusions obtained in this study put Flight Experience and Flight Proficiency does not affect flight safety if not mediated by the pilot decision making and flight safety is affected by pilots decision making.

1979