GAR Special Report on Drought 2021

Virginia Murray

2021, United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction (UNDRR)

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Abstract

4.3.1 Systemic risk management 4.3.2 Adaptive governance 4.4 The call to action vi Contents Abbreviations and acronyms clxxv References clxxvi vii The GAR Special Report on Drought 2021 comes at a pivotal moment as the world reflects on how it should deal with the threats various risks pose to sustainable development. As the Covid-19 pandemic has made tangible for so many, hazardous events that may have been thought of as being confined to a sector, or spatially and temporally limited, can quickly transform into crises with long-lasting, globally catastrophic social, ecological and economic consequences. As with Covid-19, droughts affect all societies and economies -urban and rural -regardless of stages of development. Drought negatively affects the achievement of significant global agreements, underlining the imperative that risk reduction should be at the heart of accelerating action towards the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030, the Paris Agreement, the Convention on Biological Diversity, the Convention to Combat Desertification, the New Urban Agenda and others.

Figures (53)

Note: fAPAR: fraction of absorbed photosynthetically active radiation; SPEI: standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index; SPI: standardized precipitation index. Figure 1.1. Schematic representation of drought propagation through the hydrological cycle, related drought stages and key indicators

Drought impacts may linger for a significant time period, even after the hydrometeorological indi- cators return to normal. Defining discrete drought events is important for quantifying loss and damage from extreme climatic events and for policy implementation, especially with regards to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), the Sendai Frame- work for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 (the Sendai Framework; United Nations, General Assem- bly, 2015a), and the Transforming our World: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (2030 Agenda; United Nations, General Assembly, 2015b) (WMO and GWP. 2016).

Table 1.1. Main variables for characterizing drought events

The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. Dotted line represents approximately the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir agreed upon by India and Pakistan. The final status of Jammu end Kashmir has not yet been agreed upon by the parties. Final boundary between the Republic of Sudan and the Republic of South Sudan has not yet been determined. Figure 1.3. Change in meteorological drought frequency (events/decade) from recent past (1981-2010) to 2100 for four projected warming levels of global surface air temperature (left) and number of drought events with stronger severity than ever recorded in the recent past (1981-2010) (right)

Figure 1.4. Percentage of areas with positive (red), null or uncertain (grey) or negative (blue) change in average severity of meteorological drought events from 1981 to 2010 for four warming levels of global surface air temperature; warming levels: increase it global surface air temperature from the pre-industrial era (1881 to 1910) to 2010 Note: rob (robust): a change significant in sign and in magnitude, sign (significant): a change significant in sign, = or unc (equal or uncertain).

Note: Macroregions follow the updated IPCC Working Group | reference regions (v4; Iturbide et al., 2020).

Note: Direct exposure refers to a system, sector or community in a drought-affected area; indirect exposure refers to an elemer of a system that is affected by a drought occurring elsewhere.

Figure 1.6. Schematic representation of potential interconnections among different sectors affected by droughts Note: Each sector is represented by a fragment on the outer part of the circular layout. Arcs are drawn between each sector witt the size of the arc being proportional to the importance of the trade-off.

Source: Crausbay et al. (2017). © American Meteorological Society. Used with permission. Accounting for approximately 58% of the total deaths caused by extreme weather events in the period 1900-2008, drought is by far the biggest cause of mortality in this category (Goklany, 2009; based on EM-DAT data). The peak, in absolute numbers and in death rates (deaths per million population per year), was reached in the 1920s with a declining trend since. This is attributable to a rapid increase in food production and improved emergency response (Goklany, 2009). Similar downward trends are noted for all other weather- related disasters except heatwaves, which show Drought management and policy often do not consider effects on ecosystems nor how an ecosys- tem under drought stress may diminish services provided to human society. Integrating human and natural water requirements into drought planning processes is based on the understanding that an investment in water for nature may finally be an investment in water for society. Mutually benefi- cial solutions require proactive measures tailored to reduce drought risk over short and long time horizons. Ecological drought vulnerability may be successfully reduced through proactive natura resource management strategies that work with and support natural processes, rather than employ: ing engineering solutions that may degrade natura systems in the long term (Crausbay et al., 2017). systems in the long term (Crausbay et al., 2017).

Note: Numbers in brackets indicate the quantity of papers meeting the search criteria located for each factor. The shaded area shows how the systems diagram can be used to isolate meaningful subsystems for research and analysis, such as drought- related socioeconomic factors and pathways that ultimately affect mental health. Source: Berry et al. (2018), adapted from Amelung et al. (2016). Reprinted by permission from Springer Nature Customer Service Centre GmbH: Springer Nature, Nature Climate Change, Berry et al. (2018), The case for systems thinking about climate change and mental health, © 2018.

Table 1.6. Examples of impacts, actions taken and lessons learned from four recent urban droughts across the world In Cape Town in 2018, the city’s water supply was close to being shut off as its freshwater reser- voirs hovered at about 13% of full capacity (NASA, 2020) following a sequence of several dry years (Simpkins, 2018; Ziervogel, 2019). The complete cessation of municipal water supply was avoided only by reallocation of water from agriculture and severe restrictions on the use of tap water for several months. Effective water rationing and collective water savings efforts fostered by the local government as well as some precipitation events, meant the so-called “day zero” was avoided. Globally, a quarter of all cities are already water stressed and exposed to perennial water shortages (McDonald et al., 2014). Exacerbated by climate and land-use changes, river basins with important reserves of fresh water, such as those that serve Melbourne (2000-2010), Barcelona (2008), Los Angeles (2012-2016), Perth (2014), Sdo Paulo (2014-2015), Cape Town (2015-2018) or Chennai (2018), have experienced major water shortages due to droughts over the last few years (LaVanchy et al., 2019; Zhang et al., 2019). »cal government as well as some precipitation

Figure 1.9. Characterizing the systemic nature of drought risk

Table 1.7. Exposure layers, description and relevance to sectors assessing drought exposure These factors are dynamic and change over time and space. To capture this complexity, assess- ments should allow interactions between one or multiple drought hazards and the multiple associ- ated vulnerabilities of different exposed elements to emerge. This approach is often described as being multi-risk (Garcia-Aristizabal et al., 2015) or multi-vulnerability (Gallina et al., 2016). As the socioecological system develops, the sectors or users that are affected may also change (Wilhite et al., 2014; Hagenlocher et al., 2018; World Bank, 2019). Therefore, droughts in the same region will have different impacts on the exposed elements, even if hazard characteristics are identical because the drought event is coupled with a socioecological system that is complex and dynamic. (Peduzzi et al., 2009; World Bank, 2019).

The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. Dotted line represents approximately the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir agreed upon by India and Pakistan. The final status of Jammu and Kashmir has not yet been agreed upon by the parties Final boundary between the Republic of Sudan and the Republic of South Sudan has not yet been determined. A dispute exists between the Governments of Argentina and the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland concerning sovereignty over the Falkland Islands (Malvinas).

Figure 1.12. Percentage of areas (above) and total population and extent of land-use classes (below) subject to an increase in meteorological drought frequency and severity from 1981 to 2100 to the highest warming level allowed by five SSPs (1.5°C with SSP1 2°C with SSP2, 3°C with SSP4, and 4°C with SSP3 and SSP5)

Sources: WMO and GWP (2014); IDMP (https://www.droughtmanagement.info/drought-policies-and-plans/

Figure 1.14. Three pillars of integrated drought management 5 For example, the European Commission's drought observatories (European Drought Observatory and GDO), IDMP, the National Integrated Drought Information System, FEWS NET and the UNCCD Drought Initiative. Improved early warning systems® support a prospective and proactive social process whereby networks of organizations conduct collaborative analyses and develop indicators that can help to identify when and where policy interventions are most needed, specific to geographic and stake- holder requirements (Pulwarty and Verdin, 2013). As such, early warning systems facilitate formal and informal decision-making in a way that empow- ers vulnerable sectors and social groups to assess and mitigate potential loss and damage (Pulwarty

The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. Dotted line represents approximately the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir agreed upon by India and Pakistan, The final status of Jammu and Kashmir has not yet been agreed upon by the parties. Final boundary between the Republic of Sudan and the Republic of South Sudan has not yet been determined. Figure 1.15. Main components of GDO

Figure 1.16. Main components of a DEWS as part of proactive integrated drought risk managemen

The case studies explored in this chapter show that countries’ capacities to respond to drought-related impacts vary. They highlight how limited knowledge on possible impacts, poor assessments of vulnera- bilities and costs, little coordination at national and regional levels, and lack of awareness on policy options are key impediments to effective drought management. Figure 2.1 demonstrates the global distribution of the case studies and Table 2.1 summarizes the studies. Case studies of this GAR Special Report or Drought 2021 options are key impediments to effective drought

Figure 2.2. Pampas region of Argentina

Australia develops drought policy through a federal system with responsibilities shared among state and national agencies. Policy and scientific support are focused on: understanding and managing the coincident effects of climate change; better measuring and communicating the onset, progress and impact of drought; further development of financial and social support for drought preparedness and response; and broadening the tools available to farmers, irrigators and regional managers to identify and respond to drought impacts and short-term opportunities (including through technology and genetic revolutions).

Figure 2.4. North-eastern Brazil an increase in unemployment, a rise in hunger in vulnerable communities, a growth in the number of cases of water-related diseases due to the poor quality of water supplied to the population, migra- tion of the most affected and vulnerable people from rural areas to large urban centres, and the triggering of land degradation (Magalhaes, 2017). States have registered several water conflicts. For the most part, these conflicts are local and related to a specific water system or reservoir.

d he boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations B PYUHCIES LO doolot UlOSEe adileClea VY GhOUGTIL. These actions include water testing for livestock, opening land for livestock grazing and providing assistance for uninsurable losses from wildfires. Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada provides continuous near-real-time monitoring and assessments of weather and climate conditions that affect the agricultural sector. In addition, the Canadian Drought Monitor follows the drought monitor process first established by the United States of America. There is also a livestock tax deferral provision. This case study focuses on flash droughts in the Canadian Prairies and the impact on agriculture and land- scapes, in particular, for the 2017 drought. The 2016-2017 winter season in Canada was abnormally dry throughout much of the southern prairies (Figure 2.5).

network of National Meteorological and Hydro- ogical Services coordinated by the Caribbean nstitute for Meteorology and Hydrology. These are supplemented by a suite of technical drought early warning (monitoring and forecasting) tools and products geared towards multisectoral decision support, using primarily SPI, and more recently SPEI for monitoring only), and a drought forecast/alert- ing system that issues threat levels using 6 and 12 month SPI forecasts updated every month.

Figure 2.7. Angola, United Republic of Tanzania and Zambia crops and improving water availability in drought- stricken communities. Angola has coordinated the approach with the United Nations Office for Disas- ter Risk Reduction (UNDRR), aimed at short-term response measures and medium-term prospective risk-reducing measures for nine sectors that are dependent upon external donor investment. Some national stakeholders suggest drought risk trans- fer mechanisms should be established, utilizing probabilistic risk assessments, and connected to response measures and medium-term prospective risk-reducing measures for nine sectors that are

Figure 2.8. Danube River Basin yellow fever), with impacts on food security a’ the subnational level. Farm labour opportunities decline, and there are connected impacts on fooc security. Land degradation and deforestation frorr increased charcoal production are compounding impacts.

Early warning systems have been adopted in the whole region, but they require more bottom-up linkages with local communities. They need to be connected with constant monitoring of ever-changing vulnerabilities. While drought resil- ience management exists at various governance layers, it often proves insufficient to protect lives, thereby highlighting the need to better synchronize and harmonize sectoral drought preparedness and emergency interventions.

Figure 2.10. Euphrates-Tigris Basin Complexity grows with such a combination of stress and vulnerability. Forced migration due to drought is compounded in the region with other displacement of populations (e.g. from the drain- ing of marshlands in Iraq), resultant pressures on receiving populations and increased demand for limited water and food.

Figure 2.11. Horn of Africa This leads to loss of important ecosystem services. Tourism declines as wildlife communities reduce, leading to a reduction in an important contribu- tor to national income. Competition for resources and water among communities leads to increased conflict and hostility. leading to a reduction in an important contribu-

Figure 2.12. Guadiana River Basin This case study focuses on the Guadiana River Basin that spans Portugal and Spain (Figure 2.12); an area with annual average precipitation below 600 mm. The basin is crucial to urban and rural water supply and irri- gated agriculture, and is subject to intensifying water use.

The boundaries and names shown and the designations used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations... ° Figure 2.13. Deccan Plateau region of India This case study focuses on the Deccan Plateau region of India (about 43% of southern and eastern India, Figure 2.13).

Figure 2.14. Mediterranean Basin pressure on land and water resources, urban sprawl, overexploitation of forests and overgrazing. pressure on land and water resources, urban sprawl, overeynloitation of forests and overqrazina. The region has a long and varied history of drought, with notable events including the Syrian Arab Republic’s drought in 2007-2010 and a 15 year drought in the Levant from 1998 to 2012. Recent droughts have been centred in Greece, the Levant and the western Mediterranean. IPCC projects increased risk of desertification and soil degrada- tion, sea-level rise, an increase in the duration and intensity of droughts, changes in species compo- sition, habitat losses, and agricultural and forests production losses. These will result in an increased risk of coastal erosion, infrastructure damage, and threatened water and food security. The Middle East and North Africa region already has one of the lowest water availabilities per capita worldwide.

Figure 2.15. Nile River Basin

Figure 2.16. United States of America

Drought suppresses crops, and provokes crop shortages and loss over large areas of the country. In response, extraordinary measures were intro- duced in 2000-2001, including the banning of the cultivation of water-intensive rice in some areas. Losses of grain crops during the years of severe drought in 2000-2001 accounted for a loss of 14-17%, and for other crops, on average from 45% to 75% in the lower reaches of Amudarya River. Orchards and vineyards are particularly susceptible to reduced yields when water is scarce.

Source: Gaupp (2020). This figure was published in One Earth, vol. 2, no. 6, Gaupp, F., Extreme events in a globalized food system pp. 518-521, Copyright Elsevier (2020) Two of the Ten Essentials of the UNDRR Making Emergent risks are typically obvious in retro spect — a result of a series of events that cros: human-imposed boundaries, whether institutional geographical, disciplinary, conceptual or administra tive (UNDRR, 2019). There are emerging example: This section describes advances in conceptualiz- ing, understanding and identifying paths and entry points for navigating a complex, changing system with multiple drivers and scales. Much research has shown that such navigation requires forms of visualization and joint articulation (e.g. Essential Two of the Ten Essentials of the UNDRR Making

Figure 3.3. Overview of the Australian National Outlook Analytical Framework, and project flow Note: ESM: energy sector model; GALLM: global and local learning model; GDM: generalized dissimilarity model; GIAM: global integrated assessment model; GIAM.GTEM: global trade and environment model; LUTO: land-use trade-offs; MEFISTO: mate- rial and energy flows integrated with stocks; NIAM.FLOW: national integrated assessment model — surface flows; NIAM.MMRF: national integrated assessment model - Monash multi-regional forecasting model. While not suggesting a single “ideal” approach for achieving maximum shared gains, scenarios may help to demonstrate the considerations that can inform decisions based on global, regional, national and local priorities. Their main purpose is to gener- ate perspectives regarding future developments through consideration of relevant critical driving forces (Hickman et al., 2012). This is particularly challenging in capacity-constrained, data-sparse and disaster-prone settings, but can allow for iden- tifying and addressing governance deficits by pointing to pathways of investment in institutions, information and infrastructure. Scenarios of plau- sible futures can be a valuable part of managing complex systems, depending on how the scenarios are constructed and how they are used.

Figure 3.4. Simplified illustration of the differences between designing for efficiency as opposed to resilience at multiple scales of interaction Governance has many connotations. In its broadest and most common form, it denotes the structures and processes for collective decision-making (Nye and Donahue, 2000). It is also described as a differ- ent way of governing in which the State is not the only actor (Stoker, 1998). However, as Giddens (1999) noted, strengthening the role of mediation, levelling the playing field and guiding equitable resolutions to conflict remains in the purview of the political - including governmental or parlia- mentary — processes. Improving governance can

Table 3.2. Processes for sustaining horizontal partnerships and enabling capabilities management. This result follows from much earlier work on the role of trust and respect in preserving human dignity as keys for effective public policy (Lasswell, 1971; Ascher, 2017). Acknowledging the diversity of trust processes, and the central role of affinitive trust as defined by Stern and Coleman (2015) and Coleman and Stern (2018), is critical to successfully seeking inclusive participation and employing collaborative processes to pursue common goals.

Risk governance: broadening the “actor network” Figure 3.5. Simplified illustration of the differences between designing for efficiency as opposed to resilience at multiple scales of interaction

® Integrated planning and preparation Figure 3.6. Ten Essentials of the UNDRR Making Cities Resilient campaign