The Demographic transition: population and underpopulation

1999

Economie et Statistique / Economics and Statistics

What is the benefit of probabilistic projections? The high and low scenarios proposed by Insee for France allow us to set the limits of the uncertainty, while the probabilistic projections incorporate the risk in different ways: there are no variants but rather a set of scenarios built on the basis of probability densities. The main advantage of these projections is being able to offer not only a central estimate but also a confidence interval for any derived indicator (for example, the proportion of women among the over 65s in 2070). Vianney Costemalle engages in this exercise for France. In addition to proving the feasibility of these projections by actually carrying them out, he shows some differences compared to the usual Insee projections. The central value of projected fertility for 2070 is the same (1.95 children per woman), but the uncertainty is higher: the 95% confidence interval, assimilated here to the gap between the high and low hypotheses, is [1.63; 2.26] compared with [1.8; 2.1] for the high and low scenarios. Conversely, the mortality scenarios are both more pessimistic and narrower: 88.4 years and 92.0 years for life expectancy at birth for men and women in 2070, plus or minus a year, compared with 90 and 93 years, plus or minus three years, in the high and low scenarios. How do we evaluate the projections? One way of evaluating past projections consists in comparing them with actual developments. Nico Keilman has shown in previous research that, for 40 years, the projections have not come close to reality, concluding that we need to make probabilistic projections (Keilman, 2008). Here, he proposes a method for evaluating this type of projection, and applies it to those of three countries, France, Norway and the Netherlands. This allows him to revisit the projections he participated in 10 years ago and to show that they turned out to be more accurate than official projections, except in the case of France where the adjustments made in 1999 and 2006 were not correctly taken into account in the estimation of the parameters. He also shows that the errors are more marked for certain age groups, either because there is more uncertainty here or because the adjustments related specifically to those ages. How do we build the projections? The components method used in the projections consists in estimating, for each year, net migration by sex and age, deaths by sex and age on the basis of the mortality rates, and the total number of births on the basis of the number of women of childbearing age and the fertility rates by age. The method is very effective as the sex and age of the inhabitants are very easy to forecast: girls aged 10 in 2020 will become women aged 60 in 2070, if they are still alive. These very severe restrictions regarding sex and age enable us to develop population projections that are much more robust than other projections (for example, economic projections) and to propose long time horizons of at least 50 years. Yet other dimensions can also be taken into consideration: residential lifestyle for household projections (Jacquot, 2012), professional situation for labour force projections (Koubi & Marrakchi, 2017), health status for dependent population projections (Lecroart, 2013; Larbi & Roy, 2019); these are traditionally conducted by Insee or DREES by projecting the proportions and applying them to the results of the population projections. The projections can be more complex and dynamic, for example projections by area of residence for sub-national projections (Desrivierre, 2017), in which the rates of internal migration are used to determine the number of internal migrants, with overall consistency guaranteed as each exit from a region becomes an entry into another. Calculating projections by taking into account dimensions other than sex and age? We could also include other dimensions in the projections. This is what Anne Goujon presents in her discussion of the difficulties involved in the exercise using projections based on level of education. She reviews the methods used for multi-state population projections and shows their potential added value (measure of human capital, feedback from education on fertility components, migrations, mortality). By way of example, she addresses other possible additional dimensions: diet, language spoken, political or religious opinions, and References Desrivierre, D. (2017). D'ici 2050, la population augmenterait dans toutes les régions de métropole. Insee Première N° 1652.

2009

World demographic transitions are epochal events in human evolution. To understand both the enormity and the subtlety of transition that humanity faces today, it is helpful to have the variety of temporal and theoretical perspectives provided by archaeology, demography, formal modeling, and interdisciplinary research—anthropological, political and economic, and mathematical—on world historical configurations. Demography proper has tended to lose itself of late within a micro level of analysis, in the vain hope that understanding ...

Environmental and Resource Economics, 2013

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The Routledge International Handbook of Globalization Studies, 2015

Capítulo sometido a la dirección editorial del libro en 2008, posteriormente aceptado y publicado. Rogamos que, a efectos de divulgación, docencia y cita bibliográfica se acuda a la publicación impresa (u online de la propia editorial) y la cita sea esta:

2005

This publication contains papers presented at the European Population Forum 2004, held in Geneva in January 2004, under the auspices of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) and the United Nations Population Fund (UNFP). The Forum ...

Febbyana Wulandari Hamdani, 2024

Population issues is an issue that is still being discussed, especially in developing countries such as Indonesia. Population issues such as high population growth, urbanization, immigration, death, birth, and others that can cause various social problems. This summary is made to analyze journals that discuss the case of population issues, and find out their impact on a country.

Foreign Affairs, 2010

Australian Economic Review, 2000