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2006, Annals of Finance
This paper explores the business cycle implications of financial distress and bankruptcy law. We find that due to the presence of financial imperfections the effect of liquidations on the price of capital goods can generate endogenous fluctuations. We show that a law reform that 'softens' bankruptcy law may increase the amplitude of the cycle in the long run. In contrast, a policy of bailing out businesses during the bust, or actively managing the interest rate across the cycle, could stabilize the economy in the long run. A comprehensive welfare analysis of the policy is provided as well.
Oxford Review of Economic Policy, 1999
In this paper we argue that firms' financial distress should play a greater role in the macroeconomic analysis of the business cycle. We provide a non-technical account of a general equilibrium model that exhibits financially-driven equilibrium cycles. We show that the empirical evidence is ...
Bankruptcy laws govern consumer default on unsecured credit. Foreclosure laws regulate default on secured mortgage debt. I investigate to what extent differences in foreclosure and bankruptcy laws can jointly explain variation in default rates across states. I construct a general equilibrium model where heterogeneous infinitely-lived households have access to unsecured borrowing and can finance housing purchases with mortgages. Households can default separately on both types of debt. The model is calibrated to match national foreclosure and bankruptcy rates and aggregate statistics related to household net worth and debt. The model can account for 83% of the variation in bankruptcy rates due to differences in bankruptcy and foreclosure law. I find that more generous homestead exemptions raise the cost of unsecured borrowing. Households in states with high exemptions therefore hold less unsecured and more mortgage debt compared to low exemption states, which leads to lower bankruptcy rates but higher foreclosure rates. The model also predicts recourse results in higher bankruptcy rates and a higher coincidence of foreclosure and bankruptcy. I use the model to evaluate how proposed and implemented changes to bankruptcy policy affect default rates and welfare. The 2005 Bankruptcy Abuse Prevention and Consumer Protection Act yields large welfare gains (1% consumption equivalent variation) but results in increases in both foreclosure and bankruptcy rates. I find that implementing the optimal joint foreclosure and bankruptcy policy, which is characterized by no-recourse mortgages and a homestead exemption equal to one quarter of median income, yields modest welfare gains (0.3% consumption equivalent variation).
Economic consultant, 2023
Introduction. The article is relevant due to the fact that enterprises face financial difficulties in crises, recessions, or other negative macroeconomic factors. The topic of a bankruptcy moratorium in case of economic instability is important for understanding the mechanisms of business support and economic sustainability. The article aims to analyze and understand the consequences of a bankruptcy moratorium for various participants in economic processes. Materials and methods. The materials were publications in peer-reviewed journals on economics, law, and management that deal with bankruptcy and moratoriums and their impact on the economy. The research methods used were case analysis and comparative analysis. Research Findings. One notable feature of a moratorium is introduction of mechanisms such as pre-trial agreements with creditors. This can facilitate constructive negotiations and allow financially viable companies to reach debt repayment agreements, thereby preserving their operations. Unscrupulous market participants may use these measures as a defense to delay necessary payments, benefiting from temporary restrictions on creditors’ collection actions. This can lead to a broader default crisis, putting financial pressure on creditors and potentially leading them into bankruptcy. Conclusion. Ultimately, while a moratorium serves as a temporary relief measure, its effectiveness in supporting the economy depends on the broader context. If the measures implemented by the authorities and the strategies employed by businesses prove insufficient to address economic problems, a moratorium may only delay inevitable bankruptcies rather than prevent them.
Review of Law & Economics, 2009
We examine how macroeconomic instability affects risk of bankruptcy and liquidation. In periods of macroeconomic instability more firms become financially distressed, while the number of potential acquirers falls. Reorganization systems such as Chapter 11 can decouple liquidation from macroeconomic conditions. We develop a model in which a firm's bankruptcy and acquisition hazards are co-determined by firm-level and sector-level factors, and by macroeconomic conditions. As a control, we also estimate the model for the UK, which is an economy without an equivalent system to Chapter 11. Differences in the responsiveness of bankruptcy to instability are largely attributable to reorganization under Chapter 11.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2012
We develop a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with financial frictions on both financial intermediaries and goods-producing firms. In this context, due to high leverage of financial intermediaries, balance sheet disruptions in the financial sector are particularly detrimental for aggregate output. We show that the welfare gains from recapitalizing the financial sector in response to large but rare net worth losses are as large as those from eliminating business cycle fluctuations. We also find that these gains are increasing in the size of the net worth loss, are larger when recapitalization funds are raised from the household rather than the real sector, and may increase after a reduction in financial intermediaries idiosyncratic risk that raises leverage.
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
The aim of this paper is to study the impact of bankruptcy law on financing, investment, default and liquidation decisions of firms. We build a model in which a firm can finance its investment by issuing debt. The investment is risky. Because of risk, the firm may default.
Economic Theory, 2008
This paper analyzes how an enforcement mechanism that resembles a court affects firm finance. The court is described by two parameters that correspond to enforcement costs and the amount of creditor/debtor protection. We provide a theoretical and quantitative characterization of the effect of these enforcement parameters on the contract loan rate, the default probability and welfare. We show that when constraints bind, which give agents an incentive to default and pursue bankruptcy, the enforcement parameters have a sharply non-linear effect on finance and welfare. The results provide guidance on when models which abstract from enforcement provide good approximations and when they do not. The bankruptcy rule corresponds to firm liquidation.
Csgr Hot Topics Research on Current Issues, 1999
East Asian economies caught in the recent crisis have seen their output contract fiercely despite enormous real exchange rate depreciation. Why are relative prices not maintaining demand and output at pre-crisis levels? We investigate the idea that there are negative supply-side shifts due to balance sheet effects. Specifically, we use the framework of Kiyotaki and Moore (1997) to explore the impact of an unexpected devaluation on highly-leveraged, fullycollaterised firms who have borrowed in foreign currency. A fall in the currency triggers margin calls and a consequent fire-sale of collateral assets: and it can easily cause collapse to a low level equilibrium. Using the same framework, we show how crisis management can, in principle, avert collapse in two ways: by forced debt rollovers in the short run; and ultimately by debt write downs under Chapter 11 bankruptcy procedures. But normal bankruptcy procedures are not designed to handle macro shocks hitting the whole economy : specifically they fail to internalise the price effects of asset 'fire-sales' required to satisfy margin calls. We investigate the idea of a "super Chapter 11" where firms can write off debt increases due to devaluations in excess of a given limit; and show how it may avert economic collapse.
2016
There are large countercyclical fluctuations in U.S. bankruptcy filings and real credit card interest rates, while unsecured credit is pro-cyclical. To asses whether these observations are consistent with standard theory, we introduce aggregate fluctuations into a heterogeneous agent life-cycle incomplete market model calibrated to match key features of the U.S. economy and bankruptcy system. Household borrowing is priced by competitive financial intermediaries who can observe households’ earnings, age and current asset holdings. Aggregate fluctuations change the probability of persistent shocks to household earnings, with negative shocks being more likely in recessions. This leads to asymmetric effects of credit pricing on different household types over the business cycle, since interest rates vary endogenously with borrowers’ default risk. When the only source of aggregate uncertainty is income fluctuations, the calibrated model dramatically understates the volatility of bankruptc...
SSRN Electronic Journal, 2000
Because of the recent surge in U.S. personal defaults, Congress is currently debating bankruptcy reform legislation requiring a means test for Chapter 7 filers. This paper explores the effects of such a reform in a model where, in contrast to previous work, bankruptcy options and production are explicitly taken into account. Our findings indicate that means testing would not improve upon current bankruptcy provisions and, at best, leaves aggregate filings, output, and welfare unchanged.
2016
The 2008 financial crisis was followed by a global economic downturn, a credit crunch, and a reduction in cross-border lending, trade finance, and foreign direct investment, which adversely affected businesses around the world. The consequent increase in the number of firm insolvencies in the corporate sector highlights the need for commercial bankruptcy laws to liquidate efficiently unviable firms and reorganize viable ones, so as to maximize the total value of proceeds received by creditors, shareholders, employees, and other stakeholders. The authors summarize the theoretical and empirical literature on bankruptcy design, discuss the challenges of introducing and implementing bank-ruptcy reforms, and present examples of how policymakers are trying to take advantage of the current economic downturn as an opportunity to engage in meaningful reform of the bankruptcy process. They also review the main principles of efficient insolvency laws and bankruptcy procedures. JEL codes: G33, ...
Journal of Monetary Economics, 2006
We study the implications of U.S. personal bankruptcy rules for resource allocation and welfare. Our analysis shows that general equilibrium considerations along with bankruptcy chapter choice and production matter crucially for the effects of policy reform. Contrary to previous work, we find that completely eliminating bankruptcy provisions causes significant declines in output and welfare by reducing capital formation and labor input. Furthermore, subjecting Chapter 7 filers to means testing, as suggested by recent legislative proposals, would not improve upon current bankruptcy provisions and, at best, leave aggregate filings, output, and welfare unchanged. However, we do find that an alternative tightening of Chapter 7, in the form of lower asset exemptions, can increase economic efficiency. r
Journal of Business and Economic, 2021
The main objective of this study is to analyze the "pieces" that support the construction of a bankruptcy policy, aiming to identify those that allow building a bankruptcy policy which will help in the recovery from the economic COVID crisis, as well as to build a winning policy in the economic competition between countries. To promote this purpose is observed the impact of bankruptcy policy on the entire economic cycle, allowing to understand that, more than intervening companies at the "end of life", bankruptcy policy impacts on the everyday life of a company, even before its establishment. Subsequently, identifying the characteristics of the ex ante, interim, and ex post efficiencies of a bankruptcy policy, it is analyzed how it can be built one aiming at its maximum efficiency. Finally, the main variables of bankruptcy policy are analyzed, aiming to understand its real implications, sometimes even dual, in the efficiency of this policy.
Economic Modelling, 2019
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EUROPEAN RESEARCH STUDIES JOURNAL, 2021
Purpose: Filling the cognitive gap in the theory of ex-post transaction costs, i.e., at the stage of enforcing market transactions by examining the relationship between friendliness/severity of the bankruptcy and restructuring law towards debtors, the level of development of financial markets, the effectiveness of the judicial system and the rate of debt recovery. Design/Methodology/Approach: In the research, the following methods were used: literature review, cluster, and panel analysis. Findings: Based on the research, the existence of a statistical relationship was proven between the effectiveness of bankruptcy systems (measured by the recovery rate) and factors characterizing the level of development of the financial market as well as the severity of bankruptcy law towards debtors and the effectiveness of the judicial system. Practical Implications: Research shows that the development of the financial market, and the debt market, in particular, forces countries to put more emphasis on the effectiveness of judicial systems and to create more stringent bankruptcy laws for debtors (more creditorfriendly). Originality/value: This is the first study of its type. In the next stage of the research, the authors want to additionally include such variables as the type of the legal system (statutory law vs. common law) and its origin, the form of organization of the financial market, and at the same time, the banking system model (the Anglo-Saxon and continental models), the effectiveness of conducted restructuring measures, the level of development of countries.
Laissez-Faire 42, 12-20 (2015)
I sketch a program for a microeconomic theory of the main component of the business cycle as a recurring disequilibrium, driven by incompleteness of the financial market and by information asymmetries between borrowers and lenders. This proposal seeks to incorporate five distinct but connected processes that have been discussed at varying lengths in the literature: the leverage cycle, financial panic, debt deflation, debt overhang, and deleveraging of households. In the wake of the 2007-08 financial crisis, policy responses by central banks have addressed only financial panic and debt deflation. Debt overhang and the slowness of household deleveraging account for the Keynesian "excessive saving" seen in recessions, which raises questions about the suitability of the standard Keynesian remedies.
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